Fiscal Policy Effects in Ukraine

• Autorzy: Victor Shevchuk , Roman Kopych

Warianty tytułu

Efekty makroekonomiczne polityki fiskalnej na Ukrainie

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

This paper empirically analyses fiscal policy effects in Ukraine using different identification strategies within the framework of a vector error correction model (VECM). For quarterly data from 2001 to 2016, we find a robust positive impact of both government expenditure and net revenue upon output in Ukraine, which closely corresponds with the predictions of the Mankiw-Summers model in the case of high demand for money in relation to consumption expenditure combined with significant investment elasticity in relation to the interest rate. In other respects, the fiscal policy transmission mechanism exhibits several standard features (such as an increase in government expenditure after a positive shock to revenue or a widening of the budget deficit following an interest rate hike). The results suggest the feasibility of revenue-based fiscal consolidation policies in Ukraine, as better tax collection may contribute to economic growth even in the short run. Since there is a robust conventional inverse relationship between interest rate and output, one of the puzzling results is that government expenditure puts downward pressure on the former, with net revenues being neutral in this respect. Real exchange rate (RER) depreciation is behind the decrease in output in the baseline model, but alternative identification schemes suggest that it is likely to be contractionary in the short run while turning expansionary in the long run. (original abstract)

W opracowaniu przeanalizowano empirycznie efekty polityki fiskalnej w gospodarce Ukrainy z wykorzystaniem modelu autoregresji wektorowej z korektą błędu (VECM). Na podstawie analizy danych kwartalnych z lat 2001-2016 stwierdzono pozytywny wpływ wydatków rządowych i dochodów do budżetu na poziom dochodu na Ukrainie, co odpowiada przewidywaniom modelu Mankiwa-Summersa dla wypadku wysokiego popytu na pieniądz względem wydatków konsumpcyjnych w połączeniu ze znaczącą elastycznością inwestycji względem stopy procentowej. W innych aspektach mechanizm transmisyjny polityki fiskalnej demonstruje pewne typowe cechy, jak zwiększenie wydatków rządowych po wzroście przychodów do budżetu albo zwiększenie deficytu budżetowego wskutek wzrostu stopy procentowej. Otrzymane rezultaty świadczą o przewadze konsolidacji fiskalnej opartej na zwiększeniu przychodów do budżetu na Ukrainie, gdyż lepsza ściągalność podatków stymuluje wzrost gospodarczy nawet w krótkim okresie. Z uwagi na to, że występuje standardowa odwrotna relacja między stopą procentową a dochodem, większe wydatki rządowe powodują obniżenie stopy procentowej, jak też wskaźnik nie reaguje na przychody do budżetu. Deprecjacja kursu walutowego w ujęciu realnym powoduje zmniejszenie dochodu w modelu podstawowym, ale alternatywne schematy identyfikacji sugerują występowanie efektu restrykcyjnego tylko w krótkim okresie, na dłuższą metę efekt jest ekspansywny. (abstrakt oryginalny)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Fiscal policy; Interest rate; Exchange rates

PL

Polityka fiskalna; Stopa procentowa; Kurs walutowy

• Czasopismo: Argumenta Oeconomica Cracoviensia
• Rocznik: 2018
• Numer: no 18
• Strony: 33--50

Twórcy

autor

Victor Shevchuk

• Cracow University of Technology, Poland

autor

Roman Kopych

• Ivan Franko National University of Lviv, Ukraine

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Identyfikatory

DOI

10.15678/AOC.2018.1802