PL EN


Preferencje help
Widoczny [Schowaj] Abstrakt
Liczba wyników
2018 | 9 | nr 1 | 13--23
Tytuł artykułu

Fuzzy approach using experts' psychological conditions to estimate the criteria importance for the assessment of innovative projects risk

Warianty tytułu
Języki publikacji
EN
Abstrakty
EN
The difficulty of innovation risk assessment makes it necessary to use a multi-criteria analysis. Innovative projects are related to unstructured problems and the uncertainty, therefore, the use of fuzzy logic in the innovation risk assessment is analyzed. This paper proposes a method of determining the weights of criteria in order to innovation risk assessment. The weights are determined by 5 general criteria and 14 detailed criteria of innovation risk assessment. The proposed method is an extension of the fuzzy AHP method. The extension consists in taking into consideration the group decision-making approach with experts' psychological conditions. The groups of experts have been chosen based on an elaborated form. The form makes it possible to characterize the persons within the scope of different psychological conditions. The proposed method provides objective and rational decision-making. The paper presents also a comparison of results with the fuzzy AHP method without the group decision making. The weights obtained by the proposed method are more diversified and bring out the most important criteria. (original abstract)
Rocznik
Tom
9
Numer
Strony
13--23
Opis fizyczny
Twórcy
  • Opole University of Technology, Poland
  • Opole University of Technology, Poland
Bibliografia
  • Arrighi P.-A., Le Masson P., Weil B., Managing radical innovation as an innovative design process: generative constraints and cumulative sets of rules, Creativity and Innovation Management, 24, 3, 373-390, 2015.
  • Rudnik K., Deptuła A.M., System with probabilistic fuzzy knowledge base and parametric inference operators in risk assessment of innovative project, Expert Systems with Applications, 42, 6365-6379, 2015.
  • Tidd J., Bessant J., Managing innovation: integrating technological, market and organizational change, Chichester: John Wiley & Sons, 2009.
  • Alves J., Marques M.J., Saur I., Marques P., Creativity and innovation through multidisciplinary and multisectoral cooperation, Creativity and Innovation Management, 16, 1, 27-34, 2007.
  • Marmier F., Gourc D., Laarz F., A risk oriented model to assess strategic decisions in new product development project, Decision Support Systems, 56, 74-82, 2013.
  • Mardani A., Jusoh A., Nor K. MD., Khalifah Z., Zakwan N., Valipour A., Multiple criteria decision-making techniques and their applications - a review of the literature from 2000 to 2014, Economic ResearchEkonomska Istraživanja, 28, 1, 516-571, 2015, https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2015.1075139.
  • Adamus W., Greda A., Multiple criteria decision support in organizational and management chosen problems solving, Operations Research and Decisions, 2, 5-36, 2005.
  • Lin C.J., Wu W.W., A causal analytical method for group decision-making under fuzzy environment, Expert Systems with Applications, 34(1), 205-213, 2008.
  • Brans J.P, Vincke Ph., Mareschal B., How to select and how to rank projects: the Promethee method, European Journal of Operational Research, 24, 228-238, 1986.
  • Roy B., The outranking approach and the foundations of Electre methods, Theory and Decision, 31, 49-73, 1991.
  • Linton J., Walsh S.T., Morabito J., Analysis, ranking and selection of R&D projects, in a portfolio, R&D Management, 32(2), 139-148, March 2002, doi: 10.1111/1467-9310.00246.
  • Lin C.J., Wu W.W., A causal analytical method for group decision-making under fuzzy environment, Expert Systems with Applications, 34(1), 205-213, 2008.
  • Englund R.L., Graham R.J., From experience: linking project to strategy, Journal of Product Innovation Management, 16(1), 52-64, 1999.
  • Calantone R.J., Benedetto C.A., Schmidt J.B., Using the analytic hierarchy process in new product screening, in an international publication of the product development & management association, Elsevier, 16(1), 65-76, 1999.
  • Deptuła A.M., Knosala R., Risk assessment modeling of technical innovation [in Polish], Zarządzanie Przedsiębiorstwem, PTZP, Opole, 2, 2-8, 2015.
  • Landwójtowicz A., Knosala R., Criteria of an evaluation of technical innovations risk on the basis of chosen innovative solutions [in Polish], Zarządzanie Procesami i Projektami, Marek Wirkus [Ed.], Wydawnictwo Politechniki Gdańskiej, Gdańsk 2016.
  • Füllbrunn S.C., Luhan W.J., Decision making for others: the case of loss aversion, Economics Letters, Elsevier, 161, 154-156, 2017.
  • Andersson O., Holm H.J., Tyran J.-R., Wengström E., Deciding for others reduces loss aversion, Manag. Sci., 2461(13), 0-38, 2014.
  • Chen W., Zou Y., An integrated method for supplier selection from the perspective of risk aversion, Applied Soft Computing, Elsevier, 54, 449-455, 2017.
  • Jochemczyk Ł., Pietrzak J., Buczkowski R., Stolarski M., Markiewicz Ł., You only live once: presenthedonistic time perspective predicts risk propensity, Personality and Individual Differences, Elsevier, 115, 148-153, 2017.
  • Rustichini A., Dual or unitary system? Two alternative models of decision making, Cogn. Affect. Behav. Neurosci., 8(4), 355-362, 2008.
  • Oblak K., Ličen M., Slapničar S., The role of cognitive frames in combined decisions about risk and effort, Management Accounting Research, 2017, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.mar.2017.07.001.
  • He H., Villeval M.C., Are group members less inequality averse than individualdecision makers?, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, 138, 111-124, 2017.
  • Bieniok H., Halama H., Ingram, M., Making management decisions [in Polish], Wydawnictwo Akademii Ekonomicznej im. Karola Adamieckiego w Katowicach, Katowice, 2002.
  • Szymański I., The influence of the decision-maker's type of mentality on the staff management decisions [in Polish], Decision-making Processes in the Conditions of Uncertainty, Grzegorczyk A. [Ed.], Wyższa Szkoła Promocji, Warsaw, 96-109, 2012.
  • Czarniawska B., Decision making [in Polish], Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Warszawskiego, Warszawa, 1980.
  • Kozielecki J., The psychological theory of decisionmaking [in Polish], PWN, Warsaw, 1977.
  • Porcelli A.J., Delgado M.R., Stress and decision making: effects on valuation, learning, and risktaking, Current Opinion in Behavioral Sciences, 14, 33-39, April 2017.
  • Saaty T.L., The Analytic hierarchy process, McGraw-Hill, New York, 1980.
  • Chang D.Y., Applications of the extent analysis method on fuzzy AHP, European Journal of Operational Research, 95, 649-655, 1996.
  • Wang Y. M., Chin K.S., A linear goal programming priority method for fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and its applications in new product screening, International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 49(2), 451-465, 2008.
  • Zhü K., Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process: fallacy of the popular methods, European Journal of Operational Research, 236(1), 209-217, 2014.
  • Wang Y.M., Elhag T.M.S., On the normalization of interval and fuzzy weights, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 157, 2456-2471, 2006.
  • Buckley J.J., Fuzzy hierarchical analysis, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 17, 233-247, 1985.
  • Krejčí J., Pavlačka O., Talašová J., A fuzzy extension of analytic hierarchy process based on the constrained fuzzy arithmetic, Fuzzy Optim Decis Making, 2016, doi: 10.1007/s10700-016-9241-0.
  • Deptuła A.M., Knosala R., The role of experts in the assessment of risks of technical innovation, Innowacje w Zarządzaniu i Inżynierii Produkcji, R. Knosala [Ed.], Oficyna Wydawnicza Polskiego Towarzystwa Zarządzania Produkcją, Opole, 38-46, 2015.
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikatory
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.ekon-element-000171518989

Zgłoszenie zostało wysłane

Zgłoszenie zostało wysłane

Musisz być zalogowany aby pisać komentarze.
JavaScript jest wyłączony w Twojej przeglądarce internetowej. Włącz go, a następnie odśwież stronę, aby móc w pełni z niej korzystać.