Efficient Planning of Sorghum Production in South Africa - Application of The Box-Jenkin's Method

• Autorzy: Rangarirai Roy Shoko , Abenet Belete
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Estimation and forecasting of crop production are crucial in supporting policy decisions regarding food security and development issues. The present study examines the current status of sorghum production in South Africa. Univariate time series modelling using ARIMA model was developed for forecasting sorghum production. Box and Jenkins linear time series model, which involves autoregression, moving average, and integration, also known as ARIMA (p, d, q) model was applied. The annual production series of sorghum from 1960 to 2014 exhibited a decreasing trend while prediction of sorghum production between 2017 and 2020 showed an increasing trend. The study has shown that the best-fitted model for sorghum production series is ARMA (1, 0, 4). The model revealed a good performance in terms of explaining variability and forecasting power. This study has also shown that sorghum could contribute to the household and national food security because of its drought-tolerant properties. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Corn; Corn productions; Food security; Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models

PL

Zboża; Produkcja zboża; Bezpieczeństwo żywnościowe; Modele ARIMA

• Czasopismo: Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development
• Rocznik: 2017
• Numer: z. 4 (46)
• Strony: 835--841

Twórcy

autor

Rangarirai Roy Shoko

• University of Limpopo, South Africa

autor

Abenet Belete

• University of Limpopo, South Africa

Bibliografia

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Identyfikatory

DOI

10.17306/J.JARD.2017.00352