Case Study of Financing of Innovative Projects and Exogenous Shocks
One of the main problem of innovative projects in Russian Federation is the need to assess the impact of exogenous shocks on their financing and development. The impact of this type of shock in the period of globalization is sharply increasing. In order to assess the impact of exogenous shocks on innovative projects we create a model with two stages using the innovate project of production of water purification plants. The first stage of it is the construction of a simple model of financial risk, stipulating the conditions when investors will invest in this firm in the absence of negative shocks, their expectations will depend on their own confidence in continuing investment at the next stages. This model shows a positive result. At the second stage we take into account the impact of the negative exogenous shocks on the project, and try to trace a reaction of companies involved in financing innovative projects. The results of the project were negative. The investor in this case as a rule can stop financing and has the risk of losses. In order to prevent this situation we propose to use a real option for a possible refusal to implement an innovative project in the event that the net present value after one year of financing will be negative or very small. To our opinion it is one of the best ways to reduce financial risks during the implementation of innovative projects for investors. (original abstract)
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