Niespójność osądów w analitycznym procesie hierarchicznym

• Autorzy: Anna Prusak

Warianty tytułu

Inconsistency of Judgments in the Analytic Hierarchy Process

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

Główny celem prowadzonych badań empirycznych było stwierdzenie czy i ewentualnie jaki wpływ ma forma prezentacji dziewięciostopniowej skali porównań Saaty'ego oraz treści zadawanych pytań na współczynnik CR i wartości priorytetów. Są to czynniki, na które można stosunkowo łatwo wpłynąć przez odpowiednią organizację procesu akwizycji danych i przygotowanie kwestionariusza AHP. Praca składa się z sześciu rozdziałów. Pierwszy dotyczy podstaw metody AHP i jej zastosowania. W drugim dokonano przeglądu literatury na temat metody AHP, tyle że dotyczy wyłącznie podstaw i metod pomiaru spójności macierzy. W trzecim to dalsza część rozważań na temat niespójności. W rozdziale czwartym dokonano przeglądu literatury w zakresie metodyki badań dotyczących wpływu formy prezentacji skali na spójność osądów. Ostatnie dwa rozdziały to opis przebiegu procesu badawczego, analizy danych oraz wyników badań dotyczących postawionych hipotez badawczych. (fragment tekstu)

EN

Decision-making is an integral part of everyone's life, and an immanent feature of management. It is also a frequently discussed research issue in economic sciences. Numerous concepts, methods and tools have been developed with the potential to support decision-making processes and improve the accuracy of the decisions they lead to. They are particularly important when the problem to be decided upon is complex, requires many aspects to be considered and specific priorities to be selected. In such a case, multi-criteria decision support methods are advisable. One of the most popular decision-support methods is Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and its extension - Analytic Network Process (ANP), both developed in the 1970s by the American mathematician T. L. Saaty. These methods are popular because they can be used to solve complex organisational problems while also being supported by dedicated software. They have frequently been referenced in international journal databases, a fact shown in this book. While both AHP and ANP methods are based on the same mathematical assumptions, the difference between them comes down to the construction and interpretation of a decision model. In AHP, it is a hierarchical structure, in which each element is precisely located on a level (mostly decision goal, criteria, sub-criteria, and variants or "alternatives"). The structure of relationships between the groups of elements in the hierarchy implies dependence of the goal on the criteria, and dependence of the criteria on sub-criteria. With the variants, it is important to define the extent to which they meet each individual sub-criterion. Network models (in the ANP method) allow more complex and multidirectional relationships to be considered. To simplify the process, the book focuses on AHP, though the results and conclusions are valid for both methods. For example, both use the same scale for data collection - the 9-point, fundamental Saaty comparison scale. Bipolar and utilising 17 degrees (from "1" to "9" on each side), it is the only scale used in AHP. Respondents are asked to compare two elements at once and indicate the superiority of one. It is worth mentioning that using pairwise comparisons for gathering opinions was known as early as the 13th century, so it is not specific to AHP. If one uses a verbal scale, the degree of superiority one indicates must be transposed into numerical values, e.g. "5" means that an element "A" is moderately more important than "B". The judgments (comparisons) are put into special pairwise comparison matrices and priorities (weights) are then calculated. The book also examines one of the most significant weaknesses of AHP: the difficulty it has in achieving adequate consistency of judgments expressed by respondents in the data collection process, However, this problem is often neglected by researchers, many of whom give it only cursory treatment, or present it in the form of mathematical considerations that fail to live up to the practical purposes involved. This monograph is one of the first extensive works to focus exclusively on inconsistent judgments in AHP while also formulating guidelines for practitioners. Its objective is twofold. First, to present knowledge about the theoretical bases of AHP, and to particularly emphasise the consistency - or indeed inconsistency - of judgment and its measurement using an indicator called the Consistency Ratio (CR). This is done on the strength of a thorough review of the literature related to Saaty's methods. The second objective is to present the results of my own research regarding the influence of the graphical form of the questionnaire, and of the content of the questions, on the CR and related priorities. The author of AHP/ANP suggests that if CR > 0,10 for a matrix, the judgments from this matrix must be rejected or repeated. This leads to the loss of lots of data, and raises the costs that accompany repeating surveys, which in many cases is impossible. The book consists of six chapters. Chapter one is the most comprehensive, as the basis of the AHP method and its applications are explained with respect to the problems of inconsistent judgments. This chapter is a compendium of general knowledge about the different stages of AHP. Chapter two examines the fundamentals and measurement of the consistency of judgments. It explains the terminology and mathematical basis of this phenomenon. Based on a review of the literature, Chapter two aggregates the extant knowledge about indexes and ratios of inconsistency, while also discussing their problems, particularly with respect to CR. the consistency measure Saaty proposed. Chapter three analyses sources of inconsistency, its effects on the quality of the results (priorities) and respective decisions, and CR reduction procedures, Ishikawa diagramrne is used to analyse sources of inconsistency, and allows the following categories to be distinguished; 1) inconsistency resulting from the nature of a decision problem; 2) inconsistency caused by a decision-maker's mistakes while making a judgment; 3) inconsistency resulting from the fundamentals of AHP (including the restrictive rule of matrix acceptance for CR < 0,10); 4) and inconsistency resulting from how data is collected (including the questioning procedure). Chapter four discusses research methodology regarding the influence of the graphical form of the 9-point scale on the consistency of judgments. Different forms of graphical representation of the fundamental scale are presented. Some have been the subject of prior research. Chapters five and six present and describe the research process, data analysis and results of my work, particularly as regards the influence of the form and content of the questionnaire on the CR and priority values. The research was carried out in a district office, whose top management uses AHP in decision-making. However, the outcomes should still be considered an open field for further studv in this area. For example, the chi-square test showed the relationship between the question type and the CR value. Additional experiments are needed to identify factors influencing a question to generate more or less consistent responses. Finally, guidelines and schema are recommended for conducting AHP research in practice, so as to better control consistency. The schema was developed both on the basis of mv own research and other authors' results, which are available in the world literature. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Podejmowanie decyzji; Teoria wspomagania decyzji; Analityczny proces hierarchiczny; Rozprawa habilitacyjna

EN

Decision making; Theory of decision support; Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP); Habilitation thesis

• Czasopismo: Zeszyty Naukowe / Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Krakowie. Seria Specjalna, Monografie
• Rocznik: 2017
• Numer: nr 249
• Strony: 220

Twórcy

autor

Anna Prusak

• Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Krakowie

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