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2018 | 11 | nr 3 | 248--264
Tytuł artykułu

Gold Investment Incentives: An Empirical Identification of the Main Gold Price Determinants and Prognostication of Gold Price Future Trends

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During the World War I, most of the countries stopped coin production and began converting paper money into gold. Various forms of exchange were later abolished during the "Great Depression" in 1929-1933. Later, gold lost the value of money in most of the economies worldwide. Multiple price rise of gold caused a real rise in the value of gold reserves and their potential ability to cover the balance of payment deficit. At the same time, it shows that gold still plays an important role in terms of monetary aspect. The aim of this study was to determine whether ARIMA models are suitable for determining the short-term volatility of gold prices. The calculations show that ARIMA model is suitable only for short-term gold price forecasts (max. 1 year). Thus, it is necessary to apply other models (multi-regression ones) that also can reveal the relationship between gold price and its determinants. (original abstract)
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  • Lithuanian Institute of Agrarian Economics Vilnius, Lithuania
  • Lithuanian Institute of Agrarian Economics Vilnius, Lithuania
  • JCC "Ekskomisarų biuras", Vilnius, Lithuania
  • Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, Lithuania
  • Adrangi, B., Chatrath, A., & Christie, D. R. (2000). Price discovery in strategically-linked markets: the case of the gold-silver spread. Applied Financial Economics, 10, 227-234.
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