Preferencje help
Widoczny [Schowaj] Abstrakt
Liczba wyników
2018 | nr 34 | 51
Tytuł artykułu

The Digital Era, Viewed From a Perspective of Millennia of Economic Growth

Treść / Zawartość
Warianty tytułu
Języki publikacji
I propose a synthetic theory of economic growth and technological progress over the entire human history. Based on this theory as well as on the analogies with three previous eras (the hunter-gatherer era, the agricultural era and the industrial era) and the technological revolutions which initiated them, I draw conclusions for the contemporary digital era. I argue that each opening of a new era adds a new, previously inactive dimension of economic development, and redefines the key inputs and output of the production process. Economic growth accelerates across the consecutive eras, but there are also big shifts in factor shares and inequality. The two key inputs to the digital-era production process are hardware and software. Human skilled labor is complementary to hardware and substitutable with software, which increasingly includes sophisticated artificial intelligence (AI) technologies. I also argue that economists have not yet designed sufficient measurement tools, economic policies and institutions appropriate for the digital-era economy. (original abstract)
Opis fizyczny
  • Warsaw School of Economics, Poland; National Bank of Poland
  • Acemoglu D., D. Autor, (2011): Skills, Tasks and Technologies: Implications for Employment and Earnings, pp. 1043-1171, in: Handbook of Labor Economics, vol. 4, chap. 12, ed. by O. Ashenfelter, D. Card, Elsevier 2011.
  • Acemoglu D., P. Restrepo, (2016): The Race Between Machine and Man: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares and Employment, NBER Working Paper no. 22252, National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Andrews D., C. Criscuolo, P.N. Gal, (2016): The Global Productivity Slowdown, Technology Divergence and Public Policy: A Firm Level Perspective, Economics Department , OECD, Working Party no. 1 on macroeconomic and structural policy analysis.
  • Ashraf Q., O. Galor, (2013): The 'Out of Africa' Hypothesis, Human Genetic Diversity, and Comparative Economic Development, "American Economic Review", 103, 1-46.
  • Autor D.H., D. Dorn, (2013): The Growth of Low-Skill Service Jobs and the Polarization of the US Labor Market, "American Economic Review", 103(5), 1553-97.
  • Barkai S., (2017): Declining Labor and Capital Shares, Job market paper, University of Chicago.
  • Barro R.J., X.X. Sala-i-Martin, (2003): Economic Growth, MIT Press.
  • Bertocchi G., (2006): The Law of Primogeniture and the Transition from Landed Aristocracy to Industrial Democracy, "Journal of Economic Growth", 11, 43-70.
  • Bloom N., C.I. Jones, J. Van Reenen, M. Webb, (2017): Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find? Stanford University Working Paper.
  • Bocquet-Appel J.-P., (2011): When the World's Population Took Off: The Springboard of the Neolithic Demographic Transition, "Science", 333, 560-561.
  • Bostrom N., (2003): Ethical Issues in Advanced Artificial Intelligence, in: Cognitive, Emotive and Ethical Aspects of Decision Making in Humans and in Artificial Intelligence, Vol. 2, ed. by G.E. Lasker, W. Wallach, I. Smit, pp. 12-17. International Institute of Advanced Studies in Systems Research and Cybernetics.
  • Bostrom N., (2012): The Superintelligent Will: Motivation and Instrumental Rationality in Advanced Artificial Agents, Minds and Machines, 22, 71-85.
  • Boucekkine R., D. de la Croix, O. Licandro, (2003): Early Mortality Declines at the Dawn of Modern Growth, "Scandinavian Journal of Economics", 105, 401-418.
  • Bowlby J., (1969): Attachment. The Hogarth Press and The Institute of Psychoanalysis.
  • Brynjolfsson E., A. McAfee, (2014): The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies. W.W. Norton & Co.
  • Carr N.G., (2010): The Shallows: What the Internet Is Doing to Our Brains. W.W. Norton & Company.
  • Caselli F., W.J. Coleman, (2006): The World Technology Frontier, "American Economic Review", 96, 499-522.
  • Chirinko R.S. (2008): _: The Long and Short of It, "Journal of Macroeconomics", 30, 671-686.
  • Comin D., B. Hobijn, (2010): An Exploration of Technology Diffusion, "American Economic Review", 100, 2031-2059.
  • de la Croix D., D. Dottori, (2008): Easter Island's Collapse: A Tale of a Population Race, "Journal of Economic Growth", 13, 27-55.
  • Diamond J., (1997): Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies, W.W. Norton & Company.
  • Dunbar R.I.M., (1992): Neocortex Size as a Constraint on Group Size in Primates, "Journal of Human Evolution", 22, 469-493.
  • Dunbar R.I.M., (1993): Coevolution of Neocortex Size, Group Size, and Language, "Humans, Behavioral and Brain Sciences", 16, 681-735.
  • Dunsworth H.M. (2010): Origin of the Genus Homo, "Evolution: Education and Outreach", 3, 247.
  • Felipe J., F.M. Fisher, (2003): Aggregation in Production Functions: What Applied Economists Should Know, "Metroeconomica", 54, 208-262.
  • Fernald J.G., (2015): Productivity and Potential Output Before, During, and After the Great Recession, "NBER Macroeconomics Annual", 29, 1-51.
  • Frey C.B., M. Osborne, (2013): The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation? Oxford Martin Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology.
  • Gabaix X., A. Landier, (2008): Why Has CEO Pay Increased So Much? "Quarterly Journal of Economics", 123, 49-100.
  • Galor O., (2005): From Stagnation to Growth: Unified Growth Theory, pp. 171-293, in: Handbook of Economic Growth, ed. by P. Aghion, S.N. Durlauf, North-Holland.
  • Galor O., (2011): Unified Growth Theory, Princeton: Princeton University Press.
  • Gillings M.R., M. Hilbert, D.J. Kemp, (2016): Information in the Biosphere: Biological and Digital Worlds, "Trends in Ecology and Evolution", 31, 180-189.
  • Good I J., (1965): Speculations Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine, "Advances in Computers", 6, 31-88.
  • Gordon R.J., (2016): The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The U.S. Standard of Living since the Civil War, Princeton University Press.
  • Grace K., J. Salvatier, A. Dafoe, B. Zhang, O. Evans, (2017): When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts, Future of Humanity Institute Working Paper, Oxford University.
  • Greenwood J., Z. Hercowitz, P. Krusell, (1997): Long-Run Implications of Investment-Specific Technological Change, "American Economic Review", 87, 342-362.
  • Growiec J. (2007): Beyond the Linearity Critique: The Knife-Edge Assumption of Steady-State Growth, "Economic Theory", 31, 489-499.
  • Growiec J., I. Schumacher, (2013): Technological Opportunity, Long-Run Growth, and Convergence, "Oxford Economic Papers", 65, 323-351.
  • Growiec K., J. Growiec, (2014): Trusting Only Whom You Know, Knowing Only Whom You Trust: The Joint Impact of Social Capital and Trust on Happiness in CEE Countries, "Journal of Happiness Studies", 15, 1015-1040.
  • Ha J., P. Howitt, (2007): Accounting for Trends in Productivity and R&D: A Schumpeterian Critique of Semi-Endogenous Growth Theory, "Journal of Money, Credit and Banking", 39(4), 733-774.
  • Hansen G.D., E.C. Prescott (2002): Malthus to Solow, "American Economic Review", 92, 1205-1217.
  • Hanson R., (2000): Long-Term Growth as a Sequence of Exponential Modes, George Mason University Working Paper.
  • Hanson R., E. Yudkowsky, (2013): The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate, Machine Intelligence Research Institute.
  • Harari Y.N., (2014): Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind. Vintage.
  • Harari Y.N., (2017): Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow. Vintage.
  • Henderson D.J., R.R. Russell, (2005): Human Capital and Convergence: A Production-Frontier Approach, "International Economic Review", 46,1167-1205.
  • Hibbs D.A., O. Olsson, (2004): Geography, Biogeography, and Why Some Countries Are Rich and Others Are Poor, "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences", 101, 3715-3720.
  • Hilbert M., (2017): The More You Know, the More You Can Grow: An Information Theoretic Approach to Growth in the Information Age, "Entropy", 19,82.
  • Hilbert M., P. López, (2011): The World's Technological Capacity to Store, Communicate, and Compute Information, "Science", 332, 60-65.
  • Johansen A., D. Sornette, (2001): Finite-time Singularity in the Dynamics of the World Population, Economic and Financial Indices, "Physica A", 294,465-502.
  • Jones B.F., (2009): The Burden of Knowledge and the Death of the Renaissance Man: Is Innovation Getting Harder? "Review of Economic Studies", 76, 283-317.
  • Jones C.I., (1995): R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth, "Journal of Political Economy", 103, 759-84.
  • Jones C.I., (1999): Growth: With or Without Scale Effects? American Economic Review, 89(2), 139-144.
  • Jones C.I., (2005): Growth and Ideas, in: Handbook of Economic Growth, ed. by P. Aghion, S. Durlauf, North-Holland.
  • Jones C.I., J. Kim, (2017): A Schumpeterian Model of Top Income Inequality, "Journal of Political Economy", forthcoming.
  • Jones C.I., P.M. Romer, (2010): The New Kaldor Facts: Ideas, Institutions, Population, and Human Capital, "American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics", 2, 224-245.
  • Jorgenson D.W., (2005): Accounting for Growth in the Information Age, in: Handbook of Economic Growth, ed. by P. Aghion, S. Durlauf, North-Holland.
  • Jorgenson D.W., K.J. Stiroh, (2000): Raising the Speed Limit: U.S. Economic Growth in the Information Age, "Brookings Papers on Economic Activity", 1, 125-211.
  • Kaldor N., (1961): Capital Accumulation and Economic Growth, pp.177-222, in: The Theory of Capital, ed. by L.A. Lutz, D.C. Hague, Palgrave Macmillan.
  • Karabarbounis L., B. Neiman, (2014): The Global Decline of the Labor Share, "Quarterly Journal of Economics", 129(1), 61-103.
  • Klump R., P. McAdam, A. Willman, (2007): Factor Substitution and Factor Augmenting Technical Progress in the US, "Review of Economics and Statistics", 89, 183-192.
  • Klump R., P. McAdam, A. Willman, (2012): Normalization in CES Production Functions: Theory and Empirics, "Journal of Economic Surveys", 26, 769-799.
  • Kolbert E., (2014): The Sixth Extinction: An Unnatural History, Henry Holt and Company.
  • Kremer M. (1993): Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990, "Quarterly Journal of Economics", 108, 681-716.
  • Kruse-Andersen P.K., (2017): Testing R&D-Based Endogenous Growth Models, University of Copenhagen Working Paper.
  • Krusell P., L.E. Ohanian, J.-V. Ríos-Rull, G.L. Violante, (2000): Capital-Skill Complementarity and Inequality: A Macroeconomic Analysis, "Econometrica", 68, 1029-1054.
  • Kurzweil R., (2005): The Singularity is Near, New York: Penguin.
  • Liu H., F. Prugnolle, A. Manica, F. Balloux (2006): A Geographically Explicit Genetic Model of Worldwide Human-Settlement History, "American Journal of Human Genetics", 79, 230-237.
  • Liu W., M. Martinón-Torres, Y.-J. Cai, S. Xing, H.-W. Tong, S.-W. Pei, M. J. Sier, X.-H. Wu, R.L. Edwards, H. Cheng, Y.-Y. Li, X.-X. Yang, J. M. Bermúdez de Castro, X.-J. Wu, (2015): The Earliest Unequivocally Modern Humans in Southern China, "Nature", 526, 696-699.
  • Madsen J., (2008): Semi-endogenous Versus Schumpeterian Growth Models: Testing the Knowledge Production Function Using International Data, "Journal of Economic Growth", 13, 1-26.
  • Maslow A., (1954): Motivation and Personality, Harper & Brothers.
  • Mokyr J., (2002): The Gifts of Athena: Historical Origins of the Knowledge Economy, Princeton University Press.
  • Muehlhauser L., A. Salamon, (2012): Intelligence Explosion: Evidence and Import, in: Singularity Hypotheses: A Scientific and Philosophical Assessment, ed. by A. Eden, J. Søraker, J.H. Moor, E. Steinhart, Berlin: Springer.
  • Nagy B., J.D. Farmer, J.E. Trancik, J.P. Gonzales, (2011): Superexponential Long-Term Trends in Information Technology, "Technological Forecasting and Social Change", 78, 1356-1364.
  • Oberfield E., D. Raval, (2015): Micro Data and Macro Technology, "Econometrica", forthcoming.
  • Olsson O., (2000): Knowledge as a Set in Idea Space: An Epistemological View on Growth, "Journal of Economic Growth", 5, 253-275.
  • Olsson O., (2005): Technological Opportunity and Growth, "Journal of Economic Growth", 10, 31-53.
  • Omohundro S.M., (2008): The Basic AI Drives, in: Proceedings of the First AGI Conference, Volume 171, Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence and Applications, ed. by P. Wang, B. Goertzel, S. Franklin, IOS Press.
  • Piketty T., (2014): Capital in the Twenty-First Century, Harvard University Press, Translated from French by Arthur Goldhammer.
  • Piketty T., E. Saez, (2003): Income Inequality in the United States, 1913-1998, "Quarterly Journal of Economics", 118.
  • Piketty T., G. Zucman, (2014): Capital is Back: Wealth-Income Ratios in Rich Countries, 1700-2010, "Quarterly Journal of Economics", 129(3), 1255-1310.
  • Quah D.T., (1997): Empirics for Growth and Distribution: Stratification, Polarization, and Convergence Clubs, "Journal of Economic Growth", 2, 27-59.
  • Romer P.M., (1986): Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth, "Journal of Political Economy", 94(5), 1002-1037.
  • Romer P.M., (1990): Endogenous Technological Change, "Journal of Political Economy", 98, S71-S102.
  • Schmidhuber J., (2009): Driven by Compression Progress: A Simple Principle Explains Essential Aspects of Subjective Beauty, Novelty, Surprise, Interestingness, Attention, Curiosity, Creativity, Art, Science, Music, Jokes, in: Anticipatory Behavior in Adaptive Learning Systems, from Sensorimotor to Higher-level Cognitive Capabilities, ed. by G. Pezzulo, M. V. Butz, O. Sigaud, G. Baldassarre, Springer, LNAI.
  • Schmidhuber J., (2009): Ultimate Cognition à la Gödel, "Cognitive Computation", 1,177-193.
  • Schwab K., (2016): The Fourth Industrial Revolution, World Economic Forum.
  • Silver D., J. Schrittwieser, K. Simonyan, et al. (2017): Mastering the Game of Go Without Human Knowledge, "Nature", 550, 354-359.
  • Solow R.M., (1957): Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function, "Review of Economics and Statistics", 39, 312-320.
  • Solow R.M., (1987): We'd Better Watch Out, "New York Times Book Review", July 12, 36.
  • Tattersall I. (2009): Human Origins: Out of Africa, "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences", 106, 16018-16021.
  • Temple J., (2006): Aggregate Production Functions and Growth Economics, "International Review of Applied Economics", 20, 301-317.
  • Timmer M.P., B. van Ark, (2005): IT in the European Union: A driver of productivity divergence? "Oxford Economic Papers", 57(4), 693-716.
  • Tomasello M., (2014): A Natural History of Human Thinking, Harvard University Press.
  • Twenge J.M., W.K. Campbell (2009): The Narcissism Epidemic: Living in the Age of Entitlement. Simon & Schuster, Inc.
  • Wissner-Gross A.D., C.E. Freer, (2013): Causal Entropic Forces, "Physical Review Letters", 110, 168702.
  • Yudkowsky E., (2008): Artificial Intelligence as a Positive and Negative Factor in Global Risk, pp.308-345, in: Global Catastrophic Risks, ed. by N. Bostrom, M.M. Cirkovic, New York: Oxford University Press.
  • Yudkowsky, E. (2013): Intelligence Explosion Microeconomics, Technical Report 2013-1, Machine Intelligence Research Institute.
Typ dokumentu
Identyfikator YADDA

Zgłoszenie zostało wysłane

Zgłoszenie zostało wysłane

Musisz być zalogowany aby pisać komentarze.
JavaScript jest wyłączony w Twojej przeglądarce internetowej. Włącz go, a następnie odśwież stronę, aby móc w pełni z niej korzystać.