Implications of Brexit for Financing of the EU Budget with Particular Stress on the Effects on Poland

• Autorzy: Elżbieta Kawecka-Wyrzykowska
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The paper investigates selected effects of Brexit for the EU budget, in particular for Poland's position in the EU budget. We concentrate on the so-called 'Brexit gap', i.e. the yearly amount of money that the EU budget will be short of due to the exit of the UK. We only mention briefly the so-called 'divorce bill' which covers all types of settlements (assets and liabilities) between the EU and the UK. The conclusions demonstrate that the current net contributor's position of the UK in the EU budget creates the risk of a permanent reduction in the EU budget revenue after 2020. Brexit and the related fall in the EU's Gross National Income (the UK's current share is at around 15-17%) will result in a significant decrease in the EU budget in absolute terms if the EU-27 maintains the current ceiling of the EU budget appropriations for commitments at 1% of EU GNI. Possible ways of financing the'Brexit gap'were presented. The conclusions also suggest that, as a result of Brexit, Poland will save a minor amount of money on the elimination of financing the rebates enjoyed by several net payers to the EU budget. At the same time, Poland may lose much more money owing to reduced revenue of the EU budget which will make it impossible to maintain the current level of spending in the EU-27. (original abstract)

W artykule przeanalizowano wybrane skutki brexitu dla budżetu UE, ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem skutków dla Polski. Akcent został położony na tzw. lukę brexitową, tj. roczny ubytek środków w budżecie UE w następstwie wyjścia Wielkiej Brytanii z UE. Jedynie zwięźle wspomniano o tzw. rachunku rozwodowym, który obejmuje wszystkie rodzaje rozliczeń (aktywa i zobowiązania) między UE i Wielką Brytanią. Wnioski pokazują, że obecna pozycja płatnika netto Wielkiej Brytanii stwarza ryzyko trwałego obniżenia budżetu UE po 2020 r. Brexit i związany z nim spadek dochodu narodowego brutto (DNB) UE (obecny udział Wielkiej Brytanii wynosi ok. 15-17%) spowoduje znaczny ubytek wielkości budżetu UE w wielkościach absolutnych, jeśli państwa UE-27 utrzymają środki na zobowiązania w tym budżecie na obecnym poziomie 1% DNB UE. Przedstawiono możliwe sposoby sfinansowania "luki brexitowej". Przeprowadzona analiza prowadzi też do wniosku, że w wyniku brexitu Polska zaoszczędzi stosunkowo niewielkie środki z tytułu finansowania rabatów, z jakich korzysta kilku płatników netto do budżetu UE. Jednocześnie może stracić dużo większe środki w następstwie obniżenia dochodów unijnego budżetu (bez wpłat Wielkiej Brytanii), a tym samym mniejszych funduszy na wydatki w UE-27.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Brexit; EU budget; EC finance

PL

Brexit; Budżet UE; Finanse WE

• Czasopismo: Unia Europejska.pl
• Rocznik: 2018
• Numer: nr 1 (248)
• Strony: 3--12

Twórcy

autor

Elżbieta Kawecka-Wyrzykowska

• Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie

Bibliografia

• Barker A. (2017), The €60 billion Brexit bill: How to disentangle Britain from the EU budget, Centre for European Reform.
• Begg, I. (2017), The EU budget after 2020, European Policy Analysis, Swedish Institute for European Policy Studies, issue 9.
• Brexit and the EU budget 2016-2017, (2017), House of Lords, European Union Committee, 15th Repört of Session 2016-17.
• Brussels prepares for battle over EU budget contributions (2018), "Financial Times", January 1, http://capreform.eu/more-on-the-future-of-direct-payments/ [access: 30.01.2018].
• Budget 2014 (2014), Volume 1. Total revenue: Part A. Introduction and financing of the general budget, Table 6.
• Chomicz E. (2017), EU budget post-Brexit Confronting reality, exploring viable solutions, "EPC Discussion Paper".
• Council Decision of 7 May 1985 on the Communities' system of own resources (85/257/EEC, Euratom), OJ EU L 128A1985.
• Council Decision of 7 June 2007 on the Communities' system of own resources, 2007/436/EC, Euratom, OJ EU L 163/2007.
• Council Decision of 26 May 2014 on the system of own resources of the European Union (2014/335/EU, Euratom), OJ EU L 168/2014.
• Council Regulation (EU, EURATOM) No 1311/2013 of 2 December 2013 laying down the rhultiannual financial"framework for the years 2014-2020, OJ L 347/2013.
• Eastern countries commit to bigger EU budget after Brexit (2018), Politico, February 2, https://www.politico.eu/article/gunther-o- ettinger-eastem-countries-commit-to-bigger-eu-budget-after-brexit/ [access: 5.02.2018].
• EU budget needs to be more 'ambitious' as well as facing cuts (2017) Independent.ie, December 18, https://www.independent.ie/ business/farming/eu/eu-budget-needs-to-be-more-ambitious-as-well-as-facing-cuts-36418422.html [access: 5.02.2018].
• European Commission (2015), EU budget 2014. Financial report, Luxembourg.
• European Commission (2016), EU budget 2015. Financial report, Luxembourg.
• European Commission (2016a), Commission staff working document accompanying Mid-term review/revision of the Multiannual Financial Framework 2014-2020, An EU budget focused on results, COM (2016) 603 final.
• European Commission (2017), My Region, My Europe, Our Future. Seventh report on economic, social and territorial cohesion, Brussels.
• European Commission (2017a), Reflection Paper on the Future of EU Finances, Brussels.
• European Council Conclusions, 7/8 February 2013 (Multiannual Financial Framework), see: http://europa.eu/rapid/press-rele-ase_MEMO-14-130_en.htm
• European Parliament (2016), The UK 'rebate' on the EU budget: An explanation of the abatement and other correction mechanisms, Briefing.
• Ferrer, J. N., Rinaldi D. (2016), The Impact of Brexit on the EU Budget: A non-catastrophic event, CEPS Policy Brief No. 347.
• Future Financing of the EU. Final report and recommendations of the High Level Group on Own Resources, December 2016 (the so-called 'Monti Reporf), ec.europa.eu/budget/mff/hlgor.
• Haas J. and Rubio E. (2017), Brexit and the EU Budget: Threat or Opportunity? Policy Paper No. 183, Jacques Delors Institut, Bertelsmann Stiftung.
• Joint report from the negotiators of the European Union and the United Kingdom Government on progress during phase 1 of negotiations under Article 50 TEU on the United Kingdom's orderly withdrawal from the European Union, 8 December 2017, TF50 (2017) 19 - Commission to EU 27.
• Kawecka-Wyrzykowska E. (2015), Wsparcie finansowe w ramach Wspólnej Polityki Rolnej (WPR) dla Polski w latach 2014-2020: ile na poprawę dochodów rolniczych i na wzmocnienie konkurencyjności rolnictwa?, w: Szczepaniak I. (red.), Konkurencyjność polskich producentów żywności i jej determinanty (1), seria "Monografie Programu Wieloletniego 2015-2019", nr. 11, lERiGŻ-PIB, Warszawa 2015.
• Matthews A., (2016) More on the future of direct payments, CAP Reform.eu, November 9, https://www.ft.com/content/7c-11 ba4c-e565-11e7-8b99-0191e45377ec [access: 30,01.2018],
• Regulation (EU) No 1303/2013 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 17 December 2013 laying down common provisions on the European Regional Development Fund, the European Social Fund, the Cohesion Fund, the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development and the European Maritime and Fisheries Fund and laying down general provisions on the European Regional Development Fund, the European Social Fund, the Cohesion Fund and the European Maritime and Fisheries Fund and repealing Council Regulation (ГС) No 1083/2006, OJ EU L 347/2013.
• Taskforce on Article 50 negotiations with the United Kingdom, European Commission, https://ec.europa.eu/info/departments/taskforce-artide-50-negotiations-united-kingdom_en [access: 30.01.2018].
• Treaty on European Union (consolidated version), OJ EU С 326/2012.
• Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (consolidated version), OJ EU С 326/2012.
• U.K. to Trigger Brexit March 29, Starting Two Years of Talk (2017), Bloomberg, 20 March, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-20/u-k-to-trigger-brexit-on-march-29-launching-two-years-of-talks [access: 30.01.2018].