Czy pytając konsumentów o wartość przewidywanej inflacji, można uzyskać wiarygodne i użyteczne informacje

• Autorzy: Ewa Stanisławska

Warianty tytułu

Are Quantitative Estimates of Expected Inflation Provided by Consumers in Surveys Credible and Useful?

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

Cel niniejszego opracowania jest dwojaki. Po pierwsze, przedstawiamy problemy związane z pomiarem oczekiwań inflacyjnych konsumentów przy pomocy pytania ilościowego na przykładzie ankiety prze - prowadzanej wśród polskich konsumentów. Po drugie, badamy, jakie czynniki wpływają na te oczeki - wania, i porównujemy wyniki do innych prac, wykorzystujących dane z pytania jakościowego. Nowym elementem badania procesu formułowania oczekiwań inflacyjnych jest ocena heterogeniczności mode - li stosowanych przez konsumentów. Ilościowe oszacowania przyszłej inflacji deklarowane w ankietach są znacznie obciążone, mało pre - cyzyjne i częściowo niespójne (na poziomie indywidualnych odpowiedzi) z odpowiedziami na pozosta - łe pytania dotyczące bieżących i przyszłych zmian cen. Mimo tych wad dynamika przeciętnych ocze - kiwań inflacyjnych jest bardzo silnie związana z dynamiką bieżącej inflacji oraz statystyką bilansową podsumowującą jakościowe opinie konsumentów na temat przyszłej inflacji. Oczekiwania inflacyjne w dużym stopniu są zależne od bieżącej lub postrzeganej inflacji; waga czynnika antycypacyjnego prze - ciętnych oczekiwań inflacyjnych wynosi około 0,3. Na przeciętne oczekiwania oddziałuje również dy - namika płac. Różne grupy konsumentów stosują odmienne modele formułowania oczekiwań. (abstrakt oryginalny)

EN

The aim of the study is twofold. Firstly, we employ survey data on Polish consumers inflation expectations to describe problems related to its measurement when the survey question is formulated in a quantitative way. Secondly, we test what factors affect the consumers' inflation expectations and compare our results with the previous ones based on qualitative survey question. Moreover, we extend analysis of the process of inflation expectations formation by Polish consumers by assessing heterogeneity of the models employed by them. Quantitative estimates of expected inflation, provided by consumers in surveys, are significantly biased, not precise and partly inconsistent (at individual level) with responses to other questions referring to current and expected changes in prices. Despite these flaws, aggregated measure of inflation expectations is strongly correlated with current inflation and balance statistics describing qualitative consumers opinions about future inflation. Inflation expectations are to large extent backward-looking as they depend on current CPI inflation or perceived inflation; the weight of the forward-looking component (for average expectations) is equal to about 0.3. Average expectations are affected also by wage dynamics. Different groups of consumers employ distinct models to form their inflation expectations. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Inflacja; Oczekiwania inflacyjne; Oczekiwania heterogeniczne; Pomiary; Badania ankietowe; Wyniki badań

EN

Inflation; Inflation expectations; Heterogeneous expectations; Measurement; Questionnaire survey; Research results

• Czasopismo: Bank i Kredyt
• Rocznik: 2018
• Numer: nr 5
• Strony: 515--556

Twórcy

autor

Ewa Stanisławska

• Narodowy Bank Polski

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