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2018 | nr 509 Problemy ekonomii, polityki ekonomicznej i finansów publicznych | 509--520
Tytuł artykułu

Commodity Price Volatility, Output Growth and Exchange Rate Dynamics in The Central and Eastern European Countries

Treść / Zawartość
Warianty tytułu
Niestabilność cen surowców, wzrost gospodarczy oraz kurs walutowy w gospodarkach Europy Środkowej i Wschodniej
Języki publikacji
EN
Abstrakty
W opracowaniu poddano analizie oddziaływanie światowych cen surowców na wzrost gospodarczy oraz nominalny efektywny kurs walutowy (NEER) dla wybranych krajów Europy Środkowej i Wschodniej (Czech, Węgier, Polski i Rumunii). Ustalono, że wzrost cen surowców powoduje aprecjację kursu walutowego we wszystkich analizowanych krajach, przy czym przyspieszenie tempa wzrostu gospodarczego występuje tylko w Czechach i na Węgrzech. Z wyłączeniem Czech, większa niestabilność cen surowców kojarzy się z deprecjacją kursu walutowego, niewpływającą na wzrost gospodarczy. Spośród innych wyników na uwagę zasługuje to, że zmiany kursu walutowego są niezależne od dynamiki wzrostu gospodarczego w większości krajów (oprócz Czech). Jednocześnie skutki zewnętrznego wstrząsu popytowego (w postaci zmian produkcji przemysłowej w Niemczech) w badanych gospodarkach są bardzo podobne(abstrakt oryginalny)
EN
This paper investigates the commodity price effects upon GDP growth and nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) dynamics in several Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania). Our main finding is that an increase in the world commodity price index is a factor behind a uniform exchange rate appreciation across all countries, with an acceleration in output growth in the Czech Republic and Hungary. Except for the Czech Republic, higher commodity price volatility is associated with exchange rate depreciation, while being neutral with respect to output growth. Among some other results, exchange rate dynamics seems to be independent of output growth in three out of four countries, while the effects of a foreign demand shock as proxied by Germany's industrial production are quite homogeneous across nations(original abstract)
Twórcy
  • Cracow University of Technology
  • Lviv Trade and Economics University
Bibliografia
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Bibliografia
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