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2018 | 10 | nr 4 | 355--385
Tytuł artykułu

Demographics, Retirement Age, and Real Interest Rates in Poland

Treść / Zawartość
Warianty tytułu
Języki publikacji
EN
Abstrakty
EN
Changes in the size and the age structure of a population have a great impact on an economy, especially on national savings and capital flows. Poland's population, although still relatively young when compared to other developed countries, is expected to experience accelerated ageing and decline in forthcoming decades. In this paper, we assess the effects of these processes for Polish economy. Using an open-economy OLG model with demographic shocks and a variable retirement age, we simulate dynamics of real interest rates, main macroaggregates as well as net foreign assets to GDP. We show that rapid ageing will reduce the interest rate gap between Poland and the developed countries by 1.3-2 p.p. We also document a strong positive relationship between interest rates and the retirement age and find that the decline in the interest rate in Poland is primarily driven by the surviving probability shock. (original abstract)
Rocznik
Tom
10
Numer
Strony
355--385
Opis fizyczny
Twórcy
  • University of Economics in Katowice, Poland
  • University of Economics in Katowice, Poland
Bibliografia
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Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.ekon-element-000171538665

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