Wpływ polityki fiskalnej na PKB w krajach Unii Europejskiej spoza strefy euro

• Autorzy: Agata Szymańska

Warianty tytułu

Impact of fiscal policy on GDP in EU countries outside the eurozone

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

Celem artykułu jest zbadanie wpływu polityki fiskalnej na PKB w 6 krajach Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej spoza strefy euro (Bułgaria, Chorwacja, Czechy, Polska, Rumunia, Węgry). Badanie przeprowadzono opierając się na strukturalnym modelu wektorowej autoregresji (SVAR) z identyfikacją szoków bazującą na podejściu zaproponowanym przez Blancharda i Perottiego [2002]. Analizy oparto na danych kwartalnych, przy czym, z uwagi na dostępność danych, w przypadku Polski i Chorwacji próba czasowa obejmowała okres 2002q1-2016q4, w przypadku Bułgarii i Czech - okres 2000q1-2016q4, w odniesieniu do Węgier - 1999q1-2016q4, zaś w przypadku Rumunii - 1996q1-2016q4. Wyniki badania empirycznego wskazują na pozytywną reakcję PKB na strukturalny szok wydatkowy w każdym z analizowanych krajów. Oszacowany dla wydatków mnożnik maksymalny nie przekraczał wartości 1 i kształtował się w granicach od 0,18 w Bułgarii do 0,76 w Polsce. W przypadku strukturalnego szoku w instrumencie dochodowym reakcja PKB w każdym kraju była początkowo ujemna, natomiast w całym horyzoncie, w którym analizowano funkcje reakcji na impuls (16 kwartałów), wystąpiły różnice między krajami. (abstrakt oryginalny)

EN

The aim of this paper is to investigate the impact of fiscal policy shocks on GDP in six Central and Eastern European countries outside the Eurozone, i.e. Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Poland, Romania and Hungary. The study uses a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model with an identification scheme based on approach proposed by Blanchard and Perotti [2002], estimated separately for each country. The analyses are based on quarterly data. However, due to the data availability, figures for Poland and Croatia cover period 2002q1-2016q4, in case of Bulgaria and the Czech Republic - 2000q1-2016q4, for Hungary - 1999q1-2016q4, and in case of Romania - the period 1996q1-2016q4. The results indicate a positive reaction of GDP to structural spending shocks in each of the examined countries. The estimated maximum government spending multiplier ranged from 0.18 in Bulgaria to 0.76 in Poland. The impact of the structural revenue shock on GDP was initially negative in each of the countries examined, while the differences were observed between countries over the whole time horizon for which the impulse response function was investigated (16 quarters). (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Polityka fiskalna; Szok gospodarczy; Analiza strukturalna; Mnożnik fiskalny

EN

Fiscal policy; Economic shock; Structural analysis; Fiscal multiplier

• Czasopismo: Gospodarka Narodowa
• Rocznik: 2018
• Numer: nr 3
• Strony: 49--74

Twórcy

autor

Agata Szymańska

• Uniwersytet Łódzki

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Identyfikatory

DOI

10.33119/GN/100488