PL EN


Preferencje help
Widoczny [Schowaj] Abstrakt
Liczba wyników
2019 | nr 42 | 30
Tytuł artykułu

The Hardware-Software Model: A New Conceptual Framework of Production, R&D, and Growth with AI

Autorzy
Warianty tytułu
Języki publikacji
EN
Abstrakty
EN
The article proposes a new conceptual framework for capturing production, R&D, and economic growth in aggregative models which extend their horizon into the digital era. Two key factors of production are considered: hardware, including physical labor, traditional physical capital and programmable hardware, and software, encompassing human cognitive work, pre-programmed software, and artificial intelligence (AI). Hardware and software are complementary in production whereas their constituent components are mutually substitutable. The framework generalizes, among others, the standard model of production with capital and labor, models with capital-skill complementarity and skill-biased technical change, and unified growth theories embracing also the pre-industrial period. It offers a clear conceptual distinction between mechanization and automation as well as between robotization and the development of AI. It delivers sharp, economically intuitive predictions for long-run growth, the evolution of factor shares, and the direction of technical change. (original abstract)
Rocznik
Numer
Strony
30
Opis fizyczny
Twórcy
  • Warsaw School of Economics, Poland
Bibliografia
  • ACEMOGLU, D. (2003): "Labor-and Capital-Augmenting Technical Change," Journal of the European Economic Association, 1, 1-37.
  • (2009): Introduction to Modern Economic Growth. Princeton University Press.
  • ACEMOGLU, D., AND D. AUTOR (2011): "Skills, Tasks and Technologies: Implications for Employment and Earnings," in Handbook of Labor Economics, ed. By O. Ashenfelter, and D. Card, vol. 4, chap. 12, pp. 1043-1171. Elsevier.
  • ACEMOGLU, D., AND P. RESTREPO (2018): "The Race Between Man and Machine: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares and Employment," American Economic Review, 108, 1488-1542.
  • AGHION, P., AND P. HOWITT (1992): "A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction," Econometrica, 60, 323-351.
  • AGHION, P., B. F. JONES, AND C. I. JONES (2017): "Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth," Working paper.
  • AGRAWAL, A., J. S. GANS, AND A. GOLDFARB (2017): "What to Expect From Artificial Intelligence," MIT Sloan Management Review, Spring 2017.
  • ANDREWS, D., C. CRISCUOLO, AND P. N. GAL (2016): "The Global Productivity Slowdown, Technology Divergence and Public Policy: A Firm Level Perspective," Working party no. 1 on macroeconomic and structural policy analysis, OECD.
  • ARNTZ, M., T. GREGORY, AND U. ZIERAHN (2016): "The Risk of Automation for Jobs in OECD Countries: A Comparative Analysis," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Paper No 189, OECD Publishing, Paris.
  • AUM, S., S. Y. LEE, AND Y. SHIN (2018): "Computerizing Industries and Rou- tinizing Jobs: Explaining Trends in Aggregate Productivity," Journal of Monetary Economics, 97, 1-21.
  • AUTOR, D., D. DORN, L. F. KATZ, C. PATTERSON, AND J. VAN REENEN (2017): "The Fall of the Labor Share and the Rise of Superstar Firms," Working Paper No. 23396, NBER.
  • AUTOR, D. H., AND D. DORN (2013): "The Growth of Low-Skill Service Jobs and the Polarization of the US Labor Market," American Economic Review, 103(5), 1553-97.
  • BARKAI, S. (2017): "Declining Labor and Capital Shares," Job market paper, University of Chicago.
  • BARRO, R. J., AND X. X. SALA-I-MARTIN (2003): Economic Growth. MIT Press.
  • BENZELL, S. G., L. J. KOTLIKOFF, G. LAGARDA, AND J. D. SACHS (2015): "Robots Are Us: Some Economics of Human Replacement," Working Paper No. 20941, NBER.
  • BERG, A., E. F. BUFFIE, AND L.-F. ZANNA (2018): "Should We Fear the Robot Revolution? (The Correct Answer is Yes)," Journal of Monetary Economics, 97, 117-148.
  • BLOOM, N., C. I. JONES, J. VAN REENEN, AND M. WEBB (2017): "Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?," Working paper, Stanford University.
  • BOSTROM, N. (2014): Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies. Oxford Uni-versity Press.
  • BRESNAHAN, T. F., AND M. TRAJTENBERG (1995): "General Purpose Technologies: Engines of Growth?," Journal of Econometrics, 65, 83-108.
  • BRYNJOLFSSON, E., AND A. MCAFEE (2014): The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies. W.W. Norton & Co.
  • BRYNJOLFSSON, E., D. ROCK, AND C. SYVERSON (2017): "Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox: A Clash of Expectations and Statistics," Chapter No. 14007, NBER.
  • CASELLI, F., AND W. J. COLEMAN (2006): "The World Technology Frontier," American Economic Review, 96, 499-522.
  • DECANIO, S. J. (2016): "Robots and Humans - Complements or Substitutes?," Journal of Macroeconomics, 49, 280-291.
  • DENNETT, D. (2017): From Bacteria to Bach and Back: The Evolution of Minds. W. W. Norton & Company.
  • FREY, C. B., AND M. OSBORNE (2017): "The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 114, 254-280.
  • GALOR, O. (2005): "From Stagnation to Growth: Unified Growth Theory," in Handbook of Economic Growth, ed. By P. Aghion, and S. N. Durlauf, pp. 171-293. North-Holland.
  • GORDON, R. J. (1990): The Measurement of Durable Goods Prices. University of Chicago Press.
  • GORDON, R. J. (2016): The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The U.S. Standard of Living since the Civil War. Princeton University Press.
  • GRACE, K. (2013): "Algorithmic Progress in Six Domains," Technical report 20133, Berkeley, CA: Machine Intelligence Research Institute.
  • GRAETZ, G., AND G. MICHAELS (2015): "Robots at Work," Discussion paper, Uppsala University and London School of Economics.
  • GREENWOOD, J., Z. HERCOWITZ, AND P. KRUSELL (1997): "Long-Run Implications of Investment-Specific Technological Change," American Economic Review, 87, 342-362.
  • GROWIEC, J. (2010): "Human Capital, Aggregation, and Growth," Macroeconomic Dynamics, 14, 189-211.
  • (2012): "The World Technology Frontier: What Can We Learn from the
  • US States?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 74, 777-807.
  • (2013): "A Microfoundation for Normalized CES Production Functions
  • With Factor-Augmenting Technical Change," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 37, 2336-2350.
  • GROWIEC, J. (2018): "Factor-Specific Technology Choice," Journal of Mathematical Economics, 77, 1-14.
  • GROWIEC, J., AND J. MUCK (2018): "Isoelastic Elasticity of Substitution Production Functions," Macroeconomic Dynamics, p. Forthcoming.
  • GROWIEC, J., AND I. SCHUMACHER (2013): "Technological Opportunity, Long- Run Growth, and Convergence," Oxford Economic Papers, 65, 323-351.
  • HA, J., AND P. HOWITT (2007): "Accounting for Trends in Productivity and R&D: A Schumpeterian Critique of Semi-Endogenous Growth Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 39(4), 733-774.
  • HANSON, R. (2000): "Long-Term Growth as a Sequence of Exponential Modes," Working paper, George Mason University.
  • HANSON, R., AND E. YUDKOWSKY (2013): The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate. Machine Intelligence Research Institute.
  • HARARI, Y. N. (2017): Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow. Vintage.
  • HEMÜÜS, D., AND M. OLSEN (2018): "The Rise of the Machines: Automation, Hor-izontal Innovation and Income Inequality," Working paper, University of Zurich.
  • HENDERSÜN, D. J., AND R. R. RUSSELL (2005): "Human Capital and Convergence: A Production-Frontier Approach," International Economic Review, 46, 1167-1205.
  • HERCOWITZ, Z. (1998): "The 'Embodiment' Controversy: A Review Essay," Journal of Monetary Economics, 41, 217-224.
  • HILBERT, M., AND P. LOPEZ (2011): "The World's Technological Capacity to Store, Communicate, and Compute Information," Science, 332, 60-65.
  • JONES, B. F. (2009): "The Burden of Knowledge and the "Death of the Renaissance Man": Is Innovation Getting Harder? ," Review of Economic Studies, 76, 283317.
  • JONES, C. I. (1995): "R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, 103, 759-84.
  • (1999): "Growth: With or Without Scale Effects?," American Economic Review), 89(2), 139-144.
  • (2005): "The Shape of Production Functions and the Direction of Technical Change," Quarterly Journal of Economics, 120, 517-549.
  • JONES, C. I., AND J. KIM (2017): "A Schumpeterian Model of Top Income Inequality," Journal of Political Economy, p. Forthcoming.
  • JÜNES, C. I., AND P. M. ROMER (2010): "The New Kaldor Facts: Ideas, Institutions, Population, and Human Capital," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2, 224-245.
  • JONES, L. E., AND R. E. MANUELLI (1990): "A Convex Model of Equilibrium Growth: Theory and Policy Implications," Journal of Political Economy, 98, 1008-1038.
  • JORGENSON, D. W. (1995): Productivity. Volume 1: Postwar U.S. Economic Growth. MIT Press.
  • (2005): "Accounting for Growth in the Information Age," in Handbook of
  • Economic Growth, ed. By P. Aghion, and S. Durlauf. North-Holland.
  • KALDOR, N. (1961): "Capital Accumulation and Economic Growth," in The Theory of Capital, ed. By L. A. Lutz, and D. C. Hague, pp. 177-222. Palgrave Macmillan.
  • KLUMP, R., P. MCADAM, AND A. WILLMAN (2007): "Factor Substitution and Factor Augmenting Technical Progress in the US," Review of Economics and Statistics, 89, 183-192.
  • (2012): "Normalization in CES Production Functions: Theory and Empirics," Journal of Economic Surveys, 26, 769-799.
  • KONDRATIEFF, N. D. (1935): "The Long Waves in Economic Life," Review of Economics and Statistics, 17, 105-115.
  • KOOP, G., J. OSIEWALSKI, AND M. F. J. STEEL (1999): "The Components of Output Growth: A Stochastic Frontier Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61, 455-487.
  • (2000): "Measuring the Sources of Output Growth in a Panel of Countries," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 18, 284-299.
  • KRUSE-ANDERSEN, P. K. (2017): "Testing R&D-Based Endogenous Growth Mod-els," Working paper, University of Copenhagen.
  • KRUSELL, P., L. E. OHANIAN, J.-V. RIOS-RULL, AND G. L. VIOLANTE (2000): "Capital-Skill Complementarity and Inequality: A Macroeconomic Analysis," Econometrica, 68, 1029-1054.
  • KUMAR, S., AND R. R. RUSSELL (2002): "Technological Change, Technological Catch-up, and Capital Deepening: Relative Contributions to Growth and Convergence," American Economic Review, 92, 527-548.
  • KURZWEIL, R. (2005): The Singularity is Near. New York: Penguin.
  • LEON-LEDESMA, M. A., P. MCADAM, AND A. WILLMAN (2010): "Identifying the Elasticity of Substitution with Biased Technical Change," American Economic Review, 100, 1330-1357.
  • MADSEN, J. (2008): "Semi-endogenous Versus Schumpeterian Growth Models: Testing the Knowledge Production Function Using International Data," Journal of Economic Growth, 13, 1-26.
  • MCADAM, P., AND A. WILLMAN (2018): "Unraveling the Skill Premium," Macroe-conomic Dynamics, 22, 33-62.
  • MUCK, J. (2017): "Elasticity of Substitution Between Labor and Capital: Robust Evidence from Developed Economies," Working paper no. 271, Narodowy Bank Polski.
  • Nordhaus, W. D. (2017): "Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Infor-mation Technology and the Future of Economic Growth," Working paper, Cowles Foundation, Yale University.
  • OLSSON, O. (2000): "Knowledge as a Set in Idea Space: An Epistemological View on Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, 5, 253-275.
  • (2005): "Technological Opportunity and Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, 10, 31-53.
  • RIVERA-BATIZ, L. A., AND P. M. ROMER (1991): "Economic Integration and Endogenous Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106(2), 531-555.
  • ROMER, P. M. (1986): "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, 94(5), 1002-1037.
  • (1990): "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, 98, S71-S102.
  • SACHS, J. D., S. G. BENZELL, AND G. LAGARDA (2015): "Robots: Curse or Blessing? A Basic Framework," Working Paper Np. 21091, NBER.
  • SCHMIDHUBER, J. (2009a): "Driven by Compression Progress: A Simple Principle Explains Essential Aspects of Subjective Beauty, Novelty, Surprise, Interestingness, Attention, Curiosity, Creativity, Art, Science, Music, Jokes," in Anticipatory Behavior in Adaptive Learning Systems, from Sensorimotor to Higher-level Cognitive Capabilities, ed. By G. Pezzulo, M. V. Butz, O. Sigaud, and G. Baldassarre. Springer, LNAI.
  • (2009b): "Ultimate Cognition a la Godel," Cognitive Computation, 1, 177-193.
  • SILVER, D., T. HUBERT, J. SCHRITTWIESER, ET AL. (2018): "A General Re-inforcement Learning Algorithm That Masters Chess, Shogi, and Go Through Self-Play," Science, 362, 1140-1144.
  • SOLOW, R. M. (1956): "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70, 65-94.
  • (1957): "Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function," Review of Economics and Statistics, 39, 312-320.
  • TEGMARK, M. (2017): Life 3.0: Being Human in the Age of Artificial Intelligence. New York: Knopf.
  • TEMPLE, J. (2006): "Aggregate Production Functions and Growth Economics," International Review of Applied Economics, 20, 301-317.
  • Tlmmer, M. P., AND B. VAN ARK (2005): "IT in the European Union: A driver of productivity divergence?," Oxford Economic Papers, 57(4), 693-716.
  • UZAWA, H. (1961): "Neutral Inventions and the Stability of Growth Equilibrium," Review of Economic Studies, 28, 117-124.
  • YUDKOWSKY, E. (2013): "Intelligence Explosion Microeconomics," Technical report 2013-1, Machine Intelligence Research Institute.
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikatory
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.ekon-element-000171559008

Zgłoszenie zostało wysłane

Zgłoszenie zostało wysłane

Musisz być zalogowany aby pisać komentarze.
JavaScript jest wyłączony w Twojej przeglądarce internetowej. Włącz go, a następnie odśwież stronę, aby móc w pełni z niej korzystać.