PL EN


Preferencje help
Widoczny [Schowaj] Abstrakt
Liczba wyników
2019 | 12 | nr 4 | 258--271
Tytuł artykułu

The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Selected Kazakhstan's Macroeconomic Indicators

Autorzy
Warianty tytułu
Języki publikacji
EN
Abstrakty
EN
This article studies the correlation between world oil prices and the selected Kazakhstan's macroeconomic variables using the method of vector auto-regression (VAR). As expected, the macroeconomic variables under consideration demonstrate a significant correlation with oil price fluctuations. However, the results of the research show a certain discrepancy with the earlier researches, which considered previous negative oil price shock of 2008 in the form of quicker reaction to such shocks. This means that the dependence of Kazakh economy on oil price fluctuations increased since the previous oil price plunge . In this regard, it is worth pointing out that none of these researches targeted the relationship between oil prices and Kazakh macro-economy after June 2014, when the last oil price shock began. Another important result is the timeframe during which the influence of oil price shocks is actually significant. These results are important for understanding the processes happening in the economies of Kazakhstan and other oil-exporting countries. (original abstract)
Rocznik
Tom
12
Numer
Strony
258--271
Opis fizyczny
Twórcy
  • Kaposvar University, Hungary
Bibliografia
  • Aastveit, K. A., Bjørnland, H. C., & Thorsrud, L. A. (2015). What Drives Oil Prices? Emerging Versus Developed Economies. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 30(7), 1013-1028. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2406
  • Aleksandrova, S. (2016). Impact of Oil Prices on Oil Exporting Countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia. Economic Alternatives, (4), 447-460. Retrieved from http://www.unwe.bg/uploads/Alternatives/S_A_2016_Issue4_en-5.pdf
  • Alikhanov, M., & Taylor, L. (2015). Real or nominal shock - which one does more to destabilize developing economies? The case of money velocity in Kazakhstan. Bulgarian Economic Papers (Www.Bep.Bg), (BEP 06-2015). Retrieved from https://ideas.repec.org/p/sko/wpaper/bep-2015-06.html
  • Allsopp, C., & Fattouh, B. (2011). Oil and international energy. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 27(1), 1-32. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grr010
  • Baffes, J. et al. (2015). The Great Plunge in Oil Prices: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses (No. 23/2015). Canberra. https://doi.org/http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2624398
  • Basnet, H. C., & Upadhyaya, K. P. (2015). Impact of oil price shocks on output, inflation and the real exchange rate: evidence from selected ASEAN countries. Applied Economics, 47(29), 3078-3091. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2015.1011322
  • Baumeister, C., & Kilian, L. (2016a). Forty Years of Oil Price Fluctuations: Why the Price of Oil May Still Surprise Us. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 30(1), 139-160. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.30.1.139
  • Baumeister, C., & Kilian, L. (2016b). Understanding the Decline in the Price of Oil since June 2014. Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, 3(1), 131-158. https://doi.org/10.1086/684160
  • Bernanke, B. S., Gertler, M., Watson, M., & Sims, C. A. (1997). Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, (1), 91-157. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/2534702
  • Cunado, J., Jo, S., & Perez de Gracia, F. (2015). Macroeconomic impacts of oil price shocks in Asian economies. Energy Policy, 86, 867-879. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ENPOL.2015.05.004
  • Difiglio, C. (2014). Oil, economic growth and strategic petroleum stocks. Energy Strategy Reviews, 5. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2014.10.004
  • Dikkaya, M., & Veli Doyar, B. (2017). Causality Among Oil Prices, GDP and Exchange Rate: Evidence from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. Journal of Social Sciences of the Turkic World, (83), 79-98. Retrieved from http://bilig.yesevi.edu.tr/yonetim/icerik/makaleler/2090-published.pdf
  • Ebrahim, Z., Inderwildi, O. R., & King, D. A. (2014). Macroeconomic impacts of oil price volatility: Mitigation and resilience. Frontiers in Energy. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11708-014-0303-0
  • El Anshasy, A. A., & Bradley, M. D. (2012). Oil prices and the fiscal policy response in oil-exporting countries. Journal of Policy Modeling, 34(5), 605-620. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JPOLMOD.2011.08.021
  • Eltony, M. N., & Al-Awadi, M. (2001). Oil Price Fluctuations and their Impact on the Macroeconomic Variables of Kuwait: A Case Study Using a VAR Model. International Journal of Energy Research, (25(11)), 939-959. https://doi.org/10.1002/er.731
  • Ferderer, J. P. (1996). Oil price volatility and the macroeconomy. Journal of Macroeconomics, 18(1), 1-26. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0164-0704(96)80001-2
  • Finn, M. G. (2000). Perfect Competition and the Effects of Energy Price Increases on Economic Activity. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 32(3), 400. https://doi.org/10.2307/2601172
  • Gronwald, M., Mayr, J., & Orazbayev, S. (2009). Estimating the effects of oil price shocks on the Kazakh economy (No. 81). Munich. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/10419/73844
  • Hamilton, J. D. (1983). Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II. Journal of Political Economy, 91(2), 228-248. https://doi.org/10.1086/261140
  • Hamilton, J. D. (1996). This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship. Journal of Monetary Economics, 38(2), 215-220. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3932(96)01282-2
  • Hou, K., Mountain, D. C., & Wu, T. (2016). Oil price shocks and their transmission mechanism in an oil-exporting economy: A VAR analysis informed by a DSGE model. Journal of International Money and Finance, 68, 21-49. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JIMONFIN.2016.05.004
  • Husain, A. M., Arezki, R., Breuer, P., Haksar, V., Helbling, T., Medas, P., ... Team, S. (2015). Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices. IMF Staff Discussion Note (Vol. 15). Washington, DC. Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/sdn/2015/sdn1515.pdf
  • Jiménez-Rodríguez, R., & Sánchez, M. (2005). Oil price shocks and real GDP growth: empirical evidence for some OECD countries. Applied Economics, 37(2), 201-228. https://doi.org/10.1080/0003684042000281561
  • Kilian, L. (2014). Oil Price Shocks: Causes and Consequences. Annual Review of Resource Economics, 6(1), 133-154. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-083013-114701
  • Kitous, A., Saveyn, B., Keramidas, K., Vandyck, T., Santos, L. R. L., & Wojtowicz, K. (2016). Impact of low oil prices on oil exporting countries. Joint Research Centre Science for Policy Report, European Commission (Vol. JRC101562). Sevilla. https://doi.org/10.2791/718384
  • Korhonen, I., & Mehrotra, A. N. (2009). Real Exchange Rate, Output and Oil: Case of Four Large Energy Producers. SSRN Electronic Journal, 6. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1428238
  • Lardic, S., & Mignon, V. (2008). Oil prices and economic activity: An asymmetric cointegration approach. Energy Economics, 30(3), 847-855. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ENECO.2006.10.010
  • Lee, K., Ni, S., & Ratti, R. A. (1995). Oil Shocks and the Macroeconomy: The Role of Price Variability. The Energy Journal, 16(4), 39-56. https://doi.org/10.2307/41322616
  • Lutkepohl, H., & Kratzig, M. (2004). Applied Time Series Econometrics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511606885
  • Mehrara, M. (2008). The asymmetric relationship between oil revenues and economic activities: The case of oil-exporting countries. Energy Policy, 36(3), 1164-1168. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ENPOL.2007.11.004
  • Mehrara, M., & Oskoui, K. N. (2007). The sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in oil exporting countries: A comparative study. Economic Modelling, 24(3), 365-379. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ECONMOD.2006.08.005
  • Mohn, K. (2016). Resource revenue management and wealth neutrality in Norway. Energy Policy, 96, 446-457. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ENPOL.2016.06.026
  • Mork, K. A. (1989). Oil and the Macroeconomy When Prices Go Up and Down: An Extension of Hamilton's Results. Journal of Political Economy, 97(3), 740-744. https://doi.org/10.1086/261625
  • Moshiri, S., & Banihashem, A. (2012). Asymmetric Effects of Oil Price Shocks on Economic Growth of Oil-Exporting Countries (USAEE Working Paper No. 12-140). SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2163306
  • Nurmakhanova, M. (2016). Oil and Growth Challenge in Kazakhstan (Working Paper No. E16/06). Retrieved from eercnetwork.com/default/.../a5ca0f48eeaa2062a0564249a96832b75c658f86.pdf
  • Patrick Ekong, N., & Wilson Ebong, ---Daniel. (2016). ON THE CRUDE OIL PRICE, STOCK MARKET MOVEMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH NEXUS IN NIGERIA EVIDENCE FROM COINTEGRATION AND VAR ANALYSIS Contribution/ Originality. Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, 4(3), 112-123. https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.8/2016.4.3/8.3.112.123
  • Pomfret, R. (2012). Resource management and transition in Central Asia, Azerbaijan and Mongolia. Journal of Asian Economics, 23(2), 146-156. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ASIECO.2011.08.004
  • Rafiq, S., Sgro, P., & Apergis, N. (2016). Asymmetric oil shocks and external balances of major oil exporting and importing countries. Energy Economics, 56, 42-50. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ENECO.2016.02.019
  • Segal, P. (2011). Oil price shocks and the macroeconomy. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 27(1), 169-185. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grr001
  • Sims, C. A. (1980). Macroeconomics and Reality. Econometrica, 48(1), 1. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912017
  • Tokic, D. (2015). The 2014 oil bust: Causes and consequences. Energy Policy, 85, 162-169. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ENPOL.2015.06.005
  • van de Ven, D. J., & Fouquet, R. (2017). Historical energy price shocks and their changing effects on the economy. Energy Economics, 62, 204-216. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.12.009
  • Van Robays, I. (2016). Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Oil Price Volatility. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 78(5). https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12124
  • Vandyck, T., Kitous, A., Saveyn, B., Keramidas, K., Los Santos, L., Wojtowicz, K., ... Wojtowicz, K. (2018). Economic Exposure to Oil Price Shocks and the Fragility of Oil-Exporting Countries. Energies, 11(4), 827. https://doi.org/10.3390/en11040827
  • Verleger, P. (2015). Structure Matters: Oil Markets Enter the Adelman Era. The Energy Journal, Volume 36(Adelman Special Issue). https://doi.org/10.5547/01956574.36.SI1.pver
  • Ybrayev, Z. (2017). The prospect of inflation targeting in Kazakhstan. Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, 5(1), 33-48. Retrieved from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ejn/ejefjr/v5y2017i1p33-48.html
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikatory
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.ekon-element-000171577670

Zgłoszenie zostało wysłane

Zgłoszenie zostało wysłane

Musisz być zalogowany aby pisać komentarze.
JavaScript jest wyłączony w Twojej przeglądarce internetowej. Włącz go, a następnie odśwież stronę, aby móc w pełni z niej korzystać.