Common Baltic-Nordic Business Cycles : Correlation- versus Markov-switching Approaches

Czasopismo

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• Autorzy: Scott W. Hegerty
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

With strong historical ties, and economic linkages that have continued to grow after the fall of the Soviet Union, the Baltic and Nordic regions form a unique economic space. How interconnected are these regions, both to each other and to the rest of the world? Greater connections can help forecast future economic linkages-and also help assess the strength of the Euro as a common currency. This study applies two methods of business-cycle analysis (cross-correlations and Markovswitching approaches) to seven countries in these regions. Both methods find evidence of a single Baltic common cycle for both output and consumption, while a Nordic cycle exists only for output, and there is no single common Baltic-Nordic cycle. Tests of correlation and concordance show there to be relatively strong connections with Germany, the U.S., and Russia-with Nordic-Baltic linkages also quire strong-but that the specific results vary by the method used. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Business cycles; Correlation

PL

Cykl koniunkturalny; Korelacja

• Czasopismo: ---
• Strony: 427--445

Twórcy

autor

Scott W. Hegerty

• Northeastern Illinois University, Chicago, USA

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Identyfikatory

DOI

10.5709/ce.1897-9254.324