The Effects of EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement for Poland's Economy

• Autorzy: Eliza Przeździecka , Rumiana Górska , Andżelika Kuźnar , Jerzy Menkes

Warianty tytułu

Efekty umowy o partnerstwie gospodarczym między UE a Japonią dla gospodarki Polski

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The article analyzes the impact of the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) on Poland's economy. The authors investigate the effects of a bilateral elimination of customs duties on the economy using the Computable General Equilibrium framework and the GTAP database. The impact of the bilateral elimination of customs duties on GDP, production, trade and social welfare in Poland is examined and compared with other countries and regions. According to the research results, the EPA will bring positive impact on many aspects of Polish economy, but the effects in some other areas may be negative. Positive production and trade results are expected in some sectors, such as meat and animal products, leather and processed food, but some other sectors, such as motor vehicles and transport equipment, electronics and machinery, may experience a drop in output and export volumes. Total export value gains for Poland are estimated to be about USD 135 million, but in most sectors production will decrease, which may cause a loss in the real GDP. (original abstract)

Artykuł analizuje wpływ umowy o partnerstwie gospodarczym między UE a Japonią na gospodarkę Polski. Autorzy badają wpływ obustronnej eliminacji ceł na gospodarkę za pomocą modelu równowagi ogólnej i bazy danych GTAP. Wpływ obustronnego zniesienia ceł na PKB, produkcję, handel zagraniczny i dobrobyt społeczny w Polsce jest analizowany i porównywany z innymi krajami i regionami. Zgodnie w wynikami badania, porozumienie UE-Japonia będzie miało korzystny wpływ na rozwój polskiej gospodarki w wielu dziedzinach, ale bynajmniej nie wszystkich. Pozytywnych efektów produkcyjnych i handlowych można się spodziewać w takich branżach jak produkcja mięsa i jego przetworów, innych produktów żywnościowych oraz wyrobów skórzanych, ale w takich branżach jak pojazdy mechaniczne i sprzęt transportowy, elektronika oraz przemysł maszynowy może dojść do spadku produkcji i eksportu. Łączna wartość polskiego eksportu ma wzrosnąć o około 135 mln dolarów, ale w większości gałęzi gospodarki produkcja się zmniejszy, co może spowodować pewien ubytek realnego PKB. (abstrakt oryginalny)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

International trade; Regional trade agreements; Partner relationships; Trade liberalization; Economic integration

PL

Handel międzynarodowy; Regionalne umowy handlowe; Relacje partnerskie; Liberalizm handlowy; Integracja gospodarcza

• Czasopismo: Ekonomista
• Rocznik: 2019
• Numer: nr 6
• Strony: 701--733

Twórcy

autor

Eliza Przeździecka

• Warsaw School of Economics

autor

Rumiana Górska

• Warsaw School of Economics

autor

Andżelika Kuźnar

• Warsaw School of Economics

autor

Jerzy Menkes

• Warsaw School of Economics

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