America and Energy Domination Plan - a New Way of Regime Change?

• Autorzy: Jerzy Zarzycki-Siek

Warianty tytułu

Ameryka i plan Dominacji Energetycznej - nowy sposób zmiany reżimu?

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

In December of 2017 the U.S. administration under President Donald Trump announced a fundamental change in the U.S. energy policy. Capitalizing on the rapid changes in oil and gas extraction technologies called the shale revolution, the U.S. will attempt to dominate the world market of hydrocarbons. The plan calls for regulatory changes, building new infrastructure and creating trade agreements that will allow the U.S. to export oil and gas abroad on a much bigger scale than previously. This article examines the possible impact of this decision on the geopolitics of oil-exporting countries, with a particular focus on Russia and Saudi Arabia. Both of those countries have economies heavily dependent on oil and gas exports. Without them, their budgets may have difficulty in financing state operations and economies - staying afloat. At the same time, they both present the type of foreign policy that is financed from the sale of hydrocarbons. Without those profi ts, it may be challenging for them to continue this approach. In the case of Russia, it may result in problems with maintaining its aggressive stance towards the U.S. In the case of Saudi Arabia, Riyadh may not be able to guarantee the balance of powers in the region vis-a-vis hostile Iran, growing Turkey, assertive Israel and active jihadist rebels of various kind in neighbouring countries. Paper concludes that a combination of the U.S. energy dominance plan together with radical shifts in the automobile industry - which is transitioning from gasoline engines to electrical ones - will significantly decrease the ability of Russia, Saudi Arabia and others using similar policy combinations to transform their oil and gas revenues into international influence. The United States will be in a unique position to use tools of selective pressure on their economies to alter their behaviour. Both Moscow and Riyadh without the hydrocarbon profits will lose their ability to: maintain suport for the regime, pacifydissent as well as projecting power outside. As a result, Washington's position in the world will increase, despite the growing role of China and despite the world that is becoming more assertive towards the U.S. power. (original abstract)

W grudniu 2017 r. administracja prezydenta Donalda Trumpa zapowiedziała zasadniczą zmianę w amerykańskiej polityce energetycznej. Korzystając z rewolucji w wydobyciu gazu i ropy, tzw. shale revolution, USA podejmie próbę dominacji światowego rynku węglowodorów. Plan wymaga zmian w prawie, stworzenia nowej infrastruktury oraz porozumień handlowych, które pozwolą amerykanom na eksport ropy oraz gazu za granicę na znacznie większą niż dotychczas skalę. Artykuł analizuje możliwy wpływ tej decyzji na geopolitykę krajów eksportujących ropę naftową, ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem Rosji oraz Arabii Saudyjskiej. Obydwa kraje posiadają gospodarki mocno zależne od eksportu gazu i ropy - bez niego ich budżety mogą mieć trudności w finansowaniu działalności swoich państw, a gospodarki w utrzymaniu się na powierzchni. Jednocześnie kraje te prezentują typ polityki zagranicznej, który jest wysoce zależny finansowo od sprzedaży węglowodorów, dlatego brak zysków może utrudnić utrzymanie im obecnego kursu. W przypadku Rosji może to spowodować problemy w kontynuowaniu agresywnej postawy wobec USA. Z kolei Arabia Saudyjska może nie zagwarantowanie równowagi sił w regionie w odpowiedzi na działania wrogiego Iranu, rosnącej w siłę Turcji, asertywnego Izraela oraz różnego typu aktywnych rebeliantów-dżihadystów operujących w przygranicznych krajach. Artykuł stwierdza, że połączenie amerykańskiego planu dominacji energetycznej z radykalnymi zmianami w przemyśle motoryzacyjnym - który przechodzi z ropy na energię elektryczną - znacząco zmniejszy zdolność Rosji, Arabii Saudyjskiej oraz innych państw stosujących podobną politykę do finansowania swoich działań ze sprzedaży ropy i gazu, przemieniając te zyski w wpływy międzynarodowe. Stany Zjednoczone znajdą się na wyjątkowej pozycji, która pozwoli na zastosowanie narzędzi selektywnego nacisku na gospodarki Rosji i Arabii Saudyjskiej, tak aby wpłynąć na zachowanie tych państw. Zarówno Moskwa, jak i Rijad pozbawione zysków ze sprzedaży węglowodorów, stracą zdolność do: utrzymania poparcia dla reżimów, pacyfikowania niezadowolenia, jak również projekcji sił na zewnątrz. W rezultacie pozycja Waszyngtonu wzrośnie, pomimo rosnącej roli Chin w świecie, który staje się coraz bardziej asertywny wobec amerykańskiej polityki. (abstrakt oryginalny)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Geopolitics; Energy policy; Oil

PL

Geopolityka; Polityka energetyczna; Ropa naftowa

• Czasopismo: Krakowskie Studia Międzynarodowe
• Rocznik: 2019
• Numer: nr 3 The Presidency of Donald Trump
• Strony: 95--118

Twórcy

autor

Jerzy Zarzycki-Siek

• Lazarski University

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Identyfikatory

DOI

10.34697/2451-0610-ksm-2019-3-005