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2019 | nr 94 | 59--68
Tytuł artykułu

Forecast Values of HDI Components for European Countries for 2018-2022

Treść / Zawartość
Warianty tytułu
Prognoza wartości składowych wskaźnika HDI dla krajów Europy na lata 2018-2022
Języki publikacji
EN
Abstrakty
EN
The article presents the forecast values of the four components of the human development index that pertain to three areas of life, namely health, education and income, for 42 European countries, covering the period from 2018 to 2022, with a focus on Poland. The Holt model was used as a predictor. The results suggest that the social and economic dimensions will continue to improve in most of the analyzed countries. Statistical data used were derived from the Human Development Reports. The calculations were made using the R package.(original abstract)
Rocznik
Numer
Strony
59--68
Opis fizyczny
Twórcy
  • West Pomeranian University of Technology Szczecin
Bibliografia
  • Anand S., Sen A.K. 1994. Human Development Index: Methodology and Measurement. Human Development Report Office: Occasional Papers, 1-14.
  • European Commission. 2019. European Economic Forecast, institutional paper 102 https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/economy-finance/ip102_en.pdf.
  • Eurostat. 2018. Causes of death statistics. http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/ /Causes_of_death_statistics, access: 20.10.2019.
  • Foreman K.J., Marquez N., Dolgert A., Fukutaki K., Fullman N., McGaughey M., Pletcher M.A., Smith A.E., Tang K., Yuan Ch., Brown J.C., Friedman J., He J., Heuton K.R., Holmberg M., Patel D.J., Reidy P., Carter A., Cercy K., Chapin A., Douwes-Schultz D., Frank T., Goettsch F., Liu P.Y., Nandakumar V., Reitsma M.B., Reuter V., Sadat N., Sorensen R.J.D., Srinivasan V., Updike R.L., York H., Lopez A. D., Lozano R., Lim S.S., Mokdad A.H., Vollset S.E., Murray Ch.J.L. 2018. Forecasting life expectancy, years of life lost, and all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 250 causes of death: reference and alternative scenarios for 2016-40 for 195 countries and territories. Lancet, 392(10159), 2052-2090. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(18)31694-5, access: 10.10.2019.
  • GUS. 2014. Population Projection 2014-2050. Warsaw: Statistical analysis and studies. https://stat.gov.pl/ /download/gfx/portalinformacyjny/en/defaultaktualnosci/3287/2/5/1/p_population_projection_for_pol and_2014_2050.pdf, access: 14.07.2019.
  • Holt C.H. 2004. Forecasting seasonals and trends by exponentially weighted moving averages. International J. Forecasting, 20(1), 5-10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2003.09.015, access: 10.10.2019.
  • Kontis V., Bennett J.E., Mathers C., Li G., Foreman K., Ezzati M. 2017. Future life expectancy in 35 industrialised countries: projections with a Bayesian model ensemble. The Lancet, 389(10076), 1323-1335. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)32381-9, access: 10.10.2019.
  • Lee R. 2003. Mortality Forecasts and Linear Life Expectancy Trends. In T. Bengtsson (Ed.), Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting. III. The Linear Rise in Life Expectancy: History and Prospects, (19-39). Stockholm: Försäkringskassan, Swedish Social Insurance Agency.
  • OECD. 2012. Eurostat-OECD Methodological Manual on Purchasing Power Parities. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union. https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/eurostat-oecd-methodological- -manual-on-purchasing-power-parities_5k8zpst7wxnv.pdf?itemId=%2Fcontent%2Fpublication% 2F9789264189232-en&mimeType=pdf, access: 28.10.2019.
  • Raczkowska M. 2016. Jakość życia w krajach Unii Europejskiej [Quality of life in the European Union]. Pr. Nauk. Uniw. Ekon. Wroc. 449, 511-521. [in Polish]
  • Stanton E.A. 2007. The Human Development Index: A History. Political Economy Research Institute Working Papers, 127. https://scholarworks.umass.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1101&context= =peri_workingpapers, access: 12.08.2019.
  • Torri T., Vaupel J.W. 2012. Forecasting life expectancy in an international context. International Journal of Forecasting, 28(2), 519-531. doi: doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2011.01.009, access: 26.10.2019.
  • UNPD. 2017. Human Development Report 2016 - Technical notes. Retrieved from http://hdr.undp.org/ /sites/default/files/hdr2016_technical_notes.pdf, access: 2.07.2019.
  • Zeliaś A., Pawełek B., Wanat, S. 2003. Prognozowanie ekonomiczne. Teoria, przykłady, zadania. Warszawa, Wydaw. Nauk. PWN. [in Polish]
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikatory
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.ekon-element-000171588123

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