The Impact of the Refugee Crisis on Polish Perception of the European Union

• Autorzy: Piotr Cichocki , Piotr Jabkowski
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

This paper investigates the effects of the migration crisis of 2015 on Polish attitudes to the European Union. Superficially, there seems to have been no significant impact: even though the migration crisis resulted in hitherto unprecedented tensions between Poland and the EU, as well as a robust anti-immigrant turn in Polish public opinion, this crisis had little or no effect on the standard survey gauges of EU favorability in Poland. However, based on a comparison between the results of pre- and post-crisis Eurobarometer surveys (EB82.3 and EB87.3), our analysis demonstrates that while the overall perception of the EU became only slightly less favourable between 2014 and 2017, a substantial shift in the structure of public opinion did occur. Concerns over immigration were not associated with perception of the EU before the crisis but became dominant predictors after 2015. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Migrant crisis; Structural Equation Modeling

PL

Kryzys migracyjny; Modelowanie równań strukturalnych

• Czasopismo: Polish Sociological Review
• Rocznik: 2020
• Numer: nr 1 (209)
• Strony: 23--39

Twórcy

autor

Piotr Cichocki

• Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań, Poland

autor

Piotr Jabkowski

• Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań, Poland

Bibliografia

• Ágh, A. 2016. The Core-Periphery Divide in the EU Transformation Crisis: Challenges to the Visegrád Four. Rocznik Instytutu Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej 14(2): 113-30.
• Aldrin, P. 2010. The Invention of European Public Opinion. Intellectual and Political Genesis of the Eurobarometer (1950-1973). Politix 89(1): 79-101. doi: 10.3917/pox.089.0079.
• Andrejuk, K. 2015. Postawy wobec imigrantów w świetle wyników Europejskiego Sondażu Społecznego 2014-2015. Polska na tle Europy. Warszawa: IFiS PAN Working paper 2/2015.
• Bail, C. A. 2008. The Configuration of Symbolic Boundaries against Immigrants in Europe. American sociological review 73(1): 37-59. doi: 10.1177/000312240807300103.
• Baranowski, M. 2017. Welfare Sociology in our Times. How Social, Political, and Economic Uncertainties Shape Contemporary Societies, Przegląd Socjologiczny 66(4): 9-26.
• Beetham, D. and Lord, C. 2014. Legitimacy and the European union. London: Routledge.
• Black, R., Engbersen, G. and Okólski, M. 2010. A Continent Moving West?: EU Enlargement and Labour Migration from Central and Eastern Europe. Amsterdam: Amsterdam University Press.
• Byrne, B. M. 2016. Structural equation modelling with AMOS: Basic concepts, applications, and programming. New York-London: Routledge.
• CBOS [Social Opinion Research Centre]. 2017. Stosunek do przyjmowania uchodźców. Aktualne problemy i wydarzenia. BS/163/2017. Warszawa: CBOS.
• Cichocki, P. and Jabkowski P. 2009. Poczucie związku z Unią Europejska w Nowych Krajach Członkowskich Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej, Przeglad Zachodni 3: 191-212.
• Cichocki, P. 2011. Polish Attitudes Towards the European Union, Przeglad Zachodni 3: 265-77.
• Coovert, M. and Craiger, P. 2000. An Expert System for Integrating Multiple Fit Indices for Structural Equation Models, New Review of Applied Expert Systems and Emerging Technologies 6: 39-56.
• Czachór, Z. 2017. The Enlargement of the European Union-Poland's Example. Between Unity and Diversity, Political Science Review 7: 7-20. doi: 10.14746/pp.2017.22.4.1.
• Czachur, W. 2010. Status and Potential of Polish-speaking Community in Germany, The Polish Quarterly of International Affairs 19(1): 66.
• Davidov, E., Meuleman, B., Cieciuch, J., Schmidt, P., and Billiet, J. 2014. Measurement Equivalence in Cross-National Research, Annual Review of Sociology 40(1): 55-75. doi: 10.1146/annurev-soc-071913-043137.
• Easton, D. 1965. A Systems Analysis of Political Life. New York: John Wiley.
• European Commission. 1974. Eurobarometer 1 (1974). Brussels: European Commission.
• European Commission. Brussels. 2017a. Eurobarometer 87.3 (2017). T. Opinion. GESIS Data Archive, Cologne. ZA6863. 1.0.0. doi: 10.4232/1.12847
• European Commission. Brussels. 2017b. Eurobarometer 82.3 (2014). T. Opinion. GESIS Data Archive, Cologne. ZA5965. Version 2.1.0. doi: 10.4232/1.12854
• Fornell, C. and Larcker, D. F. 1981. Evaluating Structural Equation Models with Unobservable Variables and Measurement Error, Journal of Marketing Research 18(1): 39-50. doi: 10.2307/3151312.
• Götz, M. 2012. Kryzys i przyszłość strefy euro. Warszawa: Difin.
• Goździak, E. M. and Márton, P. 2018. Where the Wild Things Are: Fear of Islam and the Anti-Refugee Rhetoric in Hungary and in Poland, Central and Eastern European Migration Review 7(2): 125-151. doi: 10.17467/ceemr.2018.04.
• Grosse, T. G. and Hetnarowicz, J. 2016. The Discourse of Solidarity and the European Migrant Crisis, Yearbook of Polish European Studies 19: 35-61.
• Habermas, J. 2012. The Crisis of the European Union: a Response. Cambridge: Polity.
• Heinisch, R. 2017. Returning to "Europe" and the Rise of Europragmatism: Party Politics and the European Union since 1989, in: I. Livezeanu and A. von Klimo (eds.), The Routledge History of East-Central Europe Since 1700. London: Taylor & Francis.
• Huang, C.-C., Wang, Y.-M., Wu, T.-W., and Wang, P.-A. 2013. An Empirical Analysis of the Antecedents and Performance Consequences of Using the Moodle Platform, International Journal of Information and Education Technology 3(2): 217-21. doi: 10.7763/IJIET.2013.V3.267.
• Jöreskog, K. G. 1971. Simultaneous Factor Analysis in Several Populations, Psychometrika 36(4): 409-26. doi: 10.1007/bf02291366.
• Kohler, U. 2007. Surveys from Inside: an Assessment of Unit Nonresponse Bias with Internal Criteria, Survey Research Methods 1(2): 55-67.
• Kolodziejczyk, K. 2016. Poland in the European Union. Ten Years of Membership, Revista UNISCI (40): 1-26. doi: 10.5209/revRUNI.2016.n40.51803.
• Konarski, R. 2014. Modele równań strukturalnych: teoria i praktyka. Warszawa: Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN.
• Krosnick, J. A. 2018. Questionnaire Design, in: The Palgrave Handbook of Survey Research: Springer, pp. 439-55.
• Levi, M., and Stoker, L. 2000. Political Trust and Trustworthiness. Annual Review of Political Science 3(1): 475-507. doi: 1094-2939/00/0623-0475.
• Mach, Z. 1997. Heritage, Dream, Anxiety: The European Identity of Poles', in: Z. Mach, D. Niedźwiedzki, European Enlargement and Identity. Kraków: Universitas, pp. 35-51.
• Mach, Z., and Styczyńska, N. 2016. Kwestia uchodźców w kontekście wyzwań dla Unii Europejskiej. Studia Migracyjne-Przegląd Polonijny 42(4 (162)).
• Matkowska, M. 2014. Immigration in the Post-Accession Poland. Trends in the World Economy 6: 121-37.
• McLaren, L. M. 2001. Immigration and the New Politics of Inclusion and Exclusion in the European Union. European Journal of Political Research 39(1): 81-108. doi: 10.1111/1475-6765.00571.
• Meuleman, B., Davidov, E. and Billiet, J. 2009. Changing Attitudes Toward Immigration in Europe, 2002-2007: A Dynamic Group Conflict Theory Approach. Social Science Research 38(2): 352-65. doi: 10.1016/j.ssresearch.2008.09.006.
• Milfont, T. L. and Fischer, R. 2010. Testing Measurement Invariance across Groups: Applications in Crosscultural Research. International Journal of psychological research 3(1).
• Moravcsik, A. and Vachudova, M. A. 2003. National Interests, State Power, and EU Enlargement. East European Politics and Societies 17(1): 42-57.
• Murdock, E. 2016. Multiculturalism, Identity and Difference. London: Palgrave Macmillan.
• Nissen, S. 2014. The Eurobarometer and the Process of European integration. Quality and Quantity 48(2): 713. doi: 10.1007/s11135-012-9797-x.
• Primožič, M. and Bavec, C. 2014. Personal Values and Trust of Europeans in National and EU Institutions. International Public Administration Review 7(2).
• Reeskens, T. and Hooghe, M. 2008. Cross-cultural Measurement Equivalence of Generalized Trust. Evidence from the European Social Survey (2002 and 2004). Social Indicators Research 85(3): 515-32. doi: 10.1007/s11205-007-9100-z.
• Sadurski, W. 2004. Accession's Democracy Dividend: The Impact of the EU Enlargement upon Democracy in the New Member States of Central and Eastern Europe. European Law Journal 10(4): 371-401.
• Scharpf, W. F. 1999. Governing Europe: Effective and Democratic. New York: Oxford University Press.
• Schmidt, V. A. 2013. Democracy and Legitimacy in the European Union Revisited: Input, Output and 'Throughput.' Political Studies 61(1): 2-22. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9248.2012.00962.x.
• Szczerbiak, A. 2017. How is the European Migration Crisis Affecting Polish Politics?, LSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog.
• Touraine, A. 2014. After the Crisis. Cambridge: Polity Press.
• Wilga, M. 2008. Poland and the Constitutional Treaty: a Short Story about a 'Square Root'?, in: F. Laursen (ed.), The Rise and Fall of the EU's Constitutional Treaty. Leiden: Brill, pp. 225-48.
• Wyrozumska, A. 2007. Who is Willing to Die for the Constitution? The National Debate on the Constitutional Treaty in Poland. Perspectives on European Politics and Society 8(3): 314-41. doi: 10.1080/15705850701433017.
• Zimmermann, A. 2011. The 1951 Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees and its 1967 Protocol. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.26412/psr209.02