International confidence spillovers and business cycles in small open economies

• Autorzy: Michał Brzoza-Brzezina , Jacek Kotłowski
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The economic literature has for a long time been looking for explanations of a very strong international correlation of business cycles. This paper shows empirically that common fluctuations can to some degree be the effect of confidence shocks being transmitted internationally. We focus on a large (euro area) and a small, near by economy (Poland). Our results show that euro area confidence fluctuations account for approximately 40-70% of business cycle fluctuations both in the euro area and in Poland. More importantly, their transmission happens not only via traditional channels(e.g. by confidence affecting euro area GDP and then Polish GDP via trade), but to a large extent occurs directly (e.g. by news spreading via media). (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Spillover effects; Business cycles; Behavioral economics; Animal spirits

PL

Efekty zewnętrzne; Cykl koniunkturalny; Ekonomia behawioralna; Zwierzęce instynkty

• Czasopismo: Collegium of Economic Analysis SGH - Working Papers
• Rocznik: 2020
• Numer: nr 49
• Strony: 34

Twórcy

autor

Michał Brzoza-Brzezina

• Warsaw School of Economics, Poland

autor

Jacek Kotłowski

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