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2020 | nr 40 | 5--35
Tytuł artykułu

The Effects of Illicit Cigarette Trade in South Africa: a CGE Analysis

Autorzy
Warianty tytułu
Języki publikacji
EN
Abstrakty
EN
Aim/purpose - This paper evaluates the effects of the illicit cigarette trade on the South African economy through a static Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. Indeed, the illicit cigarette trade occupies a prominent place in public debate in South Africa.Design/methodology/approach - The base year Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of the model is constructed from the data for 2015 to reflect the most recent information. The model includes a number of direct and indirect tax variables. The indirect tax section is decomposed into VAT, excise and fuel levy for analysis purposes. The household section considered all income categories with 14 distinct deciles. Findings - One policy simulation was carried out to evaluate the effect of the illicit cigarette trade on growth and income distribution. Our findings show that the loss of R8 billion in tax revenue given the current growth of the illicit cigarette market has impacted negatively on the country's GDP and employment rate. Research implications/limitations - We utilised the latest available data for 2015 when constructing the SAM that was used as database for the model. The assessment of the illicit cigarette trade through the application of a CGE model provided strategies for the implementation of a specific Cigarette Governing Body, with distinct areas of accountability focusing solely on illicit cigarettes. Originality/value/contribution - There is a need for urgent attention from the state to combat the trade in illicit cigarettes, as most of this illegal product is produced in South Africa. This paper contributes by expanding awareness amongst policy makers and the public regarding the connection between the illicit trade in licit goods, corruption, and organised criminal networks. (original abstract)
Rocznik
Numer
Strony
5--35
Opis fizyczny
Twórcy
  • Operational Research, Tax, Customs and Excise Institute, South African Revenue Service
Bibliografia
  • Abedian, I., & Jacobs, R. (2001). Tobacco taxes and government revenue in South Africa. Journal of Economic Studies, 28(6), 397-407. https://doi.org/10.1108/EUM0000000006275
  • African Tax Outlook. (2018). Taxation (2nd ed.). Retrieved from https://events.ataftax.org/index.php?page=documents&func=view&document_id=17
  • Aizenman, J., & Jinjarak, Y. (2005). The collection efficiency of the value added tax: Theory and international evidence. Santa Cruz: Department of Economics, University of California. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638190802137059
  • Alton, T., Arndt, C., Davies, R., Hartley, F., Makrelov, K., Thurlow, J., & Ubogu, D. (2012). The economic implications of introducing carbon taxes in South Africa (Working Paper, No. 2012/46). Helsinki: UNU-WIDER World Institute for Development Economics Research
  • Arndt, C., Davies, R., & Thurlow, J. (2011). Energy extension to the South Africa General Equilibrium (SAGE) Model (Version 2.0). Helsinki: UNU-WIDER (Unpublished mimeo).
  • Bankman, J., & Schler, M. (2007). Tax planning under the flat tax. In H. J. Aaron, L. E. Burman, & C. Eugene Steuerle (Eds.), Taxing capital income (pp. 245-284). Washington, DC: Urban Institute Press.
  • Becker, G. S., & Murphy, K. M. (1988). A theory of rational addiction. Journal of Political Economy, 96(4), 675-700. Retrieved from https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/citedby/10.1086/261558
  • British American Tobacco [BAT]. (2019). News release. Retrieved from https://www.bat.com/group/sites/UK__9D9KCY.nsf/vwPagesWebLive/DOBCZHE4
  • Case, A. (2013). Study to quantify and analyse the VAT gap in the EU-27 Member States. TAXUD/2012/DE/316. Warsaw: Center for Social and Economic Research.
  • Coats, R. M. (1995). A note on estimating cross-border effects of state cigarette taxes. National Tax Journal, 48(4), 573-584. Retrieved from https://www.jstor.org/stable/41789173
  • Dervis, K., de Melo, J., & Robinson, S. (1982). General equilibrium models for development policy. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.
  • Erero, J. L. (2015). Effect of increase in Value Added Tax: A dynamic CGE approach (Working Paper, No. 558). Cape Town: Economic Research Southern Africa,.
  • Euromonitor International. (2017). Cigarettes in South Africa. Retrieved from http://tobaccotactics.org/index.php?title=South_Africa-_Country_Profile
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikatory
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.ekon-element-000171593549

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