ARIMA-based Forecasting of the Dynamics of Confirmed Covid-19 Cases for Selected European Countries

• Autorzy: Tadeusz Kufel
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Research background: On 11 March 2020, the Covid-19 epidemic was identified by the World Health Organization (WHO) as a global pandemic. The rapid increase in the scale of the epidemic has led to the introduction of non-pharmaceutical countermeasures. Forecast of the Covid-19 prevalence is an essential element in the actions undertaken by authorities.
Purpose of the article: The article aims to assess the usefulness of the Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model for predicting the dynamics of Covid-19 incidence at different stages of the epidemic, from the first phase of growth, to the maximum daily incidence, until the phase of the epidemic's extinction.
Methods: ARIMA(p,d,q) models are used to predict the dynamics of virus distribution in many diseases. Model estimates, forecasts, and the accuracy of forecasts are presented in this paper.
Findings & Value added: Using the ARIMA(1,2,0) model for forecasting the dynamics of Covid-19 cases in each stage of the epidemic is a way of evaluating the implemented nonpharmaceutical countermeasures on the dynamics of the epidemic. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

COVID-19; Incidence; Forecasting; Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models; Pandemic

PL

COVID-19; Zachorowalność; Prognozowanie; Modele ARIMA; Pandemia

• Czasopismo: Equilibrium
• Rocznik: 2020
• Tom: 15
• Numer: nr 2
• Strony: 181--204

Twórcy

autor

Tadeusz Kufel

• Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń, Poland

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Identyfikatory

DOI

10.24136/eq.2020.009