Business Cycle, Asymmetries and Non-Linearity: the Bolivian Case

• Autorzy: Roger Alejandro Banegas Rivero , Marco Alberto Núñez Ramírez , Sacnicté Valdez del Río
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

In this paper, we deal with the problem of measuring business cycles: short, medium or long-term, with both theoretical and empirical discussions on the regularity of fluctuations versus asymmetries in their measurement phases. To achieve this, the approach is based on the combination of deviations on the level of trends (alternative filters) with the algorithm of Harding and Pagan (2002). At the same time, effective rates of economic growth by Markov's chains was considered in order to identify non-linear regimes of expansion and economic contraction. Finally, quantifications on the natural rate of growth for Bolivia are offered under a sustained expansion regime from 1950 to 2015. The results suggest that due to asymmetries and the manner in which the business cycle is measured, we observe longer duration of a business cycle when it was measured from busts rather than from booms. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Markov chain; Economic growth theory; Business cycles

PL

Łańcuch Markowa; Teoria wzrostu gospodarczego; Cykl koniunkturalny

• Czasopismo: Economics & Sociology
• Rocznik: 2020
• Tom: 13
• Numer: nr 2
• Strony: 26--42

Twórcy

autor

Roger Alejandro Banegas Rivero

• Universidad Autónoma Gabriel René Moreno, Bolivia

autor

Marco Alberto Núñez Ramírez

• Instituto Tecnológico de Sonora, Mexico

autor

Sacnicté Valdez del Río

• Instituto Tecnológico de Sonora, Mexico

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Identyfikatory

DOI

10.14254/2071-789X.2020/13-2/2