Monitoring Vulnerabilities in the Residential Real Estate Sector in Poland

• Autorzy: Magdalena Grothe

Warianty tytułu

Monitorowanie ryzyka na rynku nieruchomości mieszkalnych w Polsce

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

This paper applies a framework for monitoring vulnerabilities in the residential real estate sector to the case of Poland. The framework considers indicators across three dimensions of real estate-related vulnerabilities, i.e. valuation, household indebtedness and the bank credit cycle, and builds a composite model-free measure shown to have a significant forecasting performance for real estate crises. The paper shows how the monitoring can be implemented for the Polish market, discusses the developments from a historical perspective, and highlights remaining data gaps. (original abstract)

Artykuł ten stosuje metodę monitorowania ryzyka związanego z sektorem nieruchomości mieszkalnych dla rynku polskiego. Metoda uwzględnia wskaźniki dotyczące trzech wymiarów ryzyka na rynku nieruchomości mieszkalnych: wyceny, zadłużenia gospodarstw domowych i cyklu kredytowego, oraz buduje zagregowaną bezmodelowo miarę ryzyka, która posiada właściwości wczesnego ostrzegania o kryzysie. Artykuł pokazuje, jak można zastosować omawianą metodę monitorowania dla rynku Polski, opisuje dynamikę wskaźników z perspektywy historycznej i ukazuje pozostające luki w danych. (abstrakt oryginalny)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Real estate housing; Investment risk; Market research

PL

Nieruchomości mieszkaniowe; Ryzyko inwestycyjne; Badanie rynku

• Czasopismo: Gospodarka Narodowa
• Rocznik: 2020
• Numer: nr 2
• Strony: 5--24

Twórcy

autor

Magdalena Grothe

• European Central Bank, European Systemic Risk Board Secretariat, Germany

Bibliografia

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Identyfikatory

DOI

10.33119/GN/120628