Consolidation budgetaire : quelles differences entre therapie de choc et ajustement graduel?

• Autorzy: Jean-Jacques Durand , Guillaume L 'Oeillet

Warianty tytułu

Fiscal Consolidation : what Differences between Shock Therapy and Soft Adjustment?

• Języki publikacji: FR

Abstrakty

Après avoir conduit des politiques budgétaires expansionnistes durant la crise économique, plusieurs pays, confrontés à une montée de l ' endettement public, ont dû mettre en oeuvre des plans de consolidation budgétaire afin de rétablir la soutenabilité de leurs finances publiques. Deux stratégies opposées peuvent être suivies pour atteindre cet objectif. La première approche consiste en une « thérapie de choc » qui répondrait à une urgence financière qui conduirait à une possible faillite. Une seconde approche vise à lisser l ' ajustement budgétaire pour contenir les effets récessifs d ' une telle politique. Dans cet article, nous comparons les effets macroéconomiques de chaque stratégie à partir d ' une base de données identifiant les épisodes de consolidation budgétaires sur une méthode narrative (FMI) plutôt que statistique (déficit budgétaire ajusté du cycle). Nous observons que si les deux types d ' approche présentent des effets similaires sur les variables macroéconomiques étudiées, la thérapie de choc détiendrait des effets sensiblement plus élevés sur la demande privée.(abstrakt oryginalny)

EN

After easing fiscal policies during the economic crisis, many countries faced a rising public debt and most of them have launched fiscal consolidation plans to stabilize and reduce the public indebtedness in order to restore the sustainability of the public finances. Two different strategies can be followed by policymakers to achieve this goal. The first approach is a shock therapy that would response to a financial emergency keeping away a potential default. A second approach smoothes the fiscal adjustment to limit contractionary effects. In this paper, we compare the macroeconomic effects of each strategy based on the narrative approach of the fiscal consolidations developed by the IMF rather than the conventional statistical measure (cyclically-adjusted primary balance: CAPB) measure. Both strategies show similar effects on the macroeconomic variables, but private demand would react stronger to the shock therapy strategy.(original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Consolidation; Macroeconomics; Fiscal policy; Economic stabilization; Financial sustainability

PL

Konsolidacja; Makroekonomia; Polityka fiskalna; Stabilizacja gospodarcza; Stabilność finansowa

• Czasopismo: Revue Internationale des Economistes de Langue Française : revue de l'Association Internationale de Economistes de Langue Française avec la collaboration Université des Sciences Economiques et de Gestion
• Rocznik: 2020
• Tom: 5
• Numer: nr 1
• Strony: 58--77

Twórcy

autor

Jean-Jacques Durand

• Université de Rennes, France

autor

Guillaume L 'Oeillet

• Université de Rennes, France

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