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2017 | 2 | nr 1 | 25--54
Tytuł artykułu

Régimes de change et performances économiques en Afrique : quelles leçons pour les pays de l'UEMOA?

Treść / Zawartość
Warianty tytułu
Exchange Rate Regimes and Economic Performance in Africa: which Lessons to Be Drawn for WAEMU Countries?
Języki publikacji
FR
Abstrakty
L'objectif de cet article est d'évaluer l'influence du régime de change sur les performances macroéconomiques afin d'en tirer des leçons pour les pays de l'UEMOA où la politique de change fi xe caractérise le régime monétaire. Pour cela, une estimation en données de panel à l'aide de la méthode des moments généralisés (GMM) en système a été adoptée et effectuée sur 32 pays pour évaluer l'impact du régime de change sur les performances macroéconomiques pendant la période 1980-2010. Les résultats montrent que le régime de change fixe est meilleur que les régimes de change flexible et intermédiaire pour maintenir des taux d'inflation faibles et stables grâce à un effet de discipline plutôt qu'à un effet de crédibilité. En outre, la croissance dans les pays en régime de change fi xe est plus faible que celle dans l'ensemble des pays en régime de change plus souple. Spécifiquement, ces pays en régime de change fixe semblent enregistrer des taux de croissance plus faibles que les pays en régime de change intermédiaire. Quant au coefficient associé au régime de change flexible, il est positif et significatif. Il traduit que les pays en régime de change fl exible pourraient avoir des taux de croissance plus élevés que les pays en régime de change intermédiaire. L'implication à tirer pour les pays de l'UEMOA est que la recherche d'un point d'ancrage nominal domestique permettrait le maintien de l'inflation à des niveaux faibles et stables tout en améliorant les performances de croissance.(abstrakt oryginalny)
EN
The objective of this paper is to evaluate the influence of the exchange rate regime on macroeconomic performance in order to draw lessons for WAEMU countries where fixed exchange policy characterizes the monetary regime. For this, a panel data estimation using the generalized method of moments (GMM) system was adopted and carried out on 32 countries to assess the impact of exchange rate regimes on macroeconomic performance during the 1980-2010 period. Th e results show that the fixed exchange regime is better than fl exible and intermediate exchange regimes to maintain low and stable inflation through discipline effect rather than credibility effect. Furthermore, growth in fixed exchange regime countries is lower than in all more flexible exchange regime countries. Specifically, these fixed exchange regime countries seem to record growth rate lower than countries in intermediate exchange regime. As for the associated flexible exchange regime coefficient is positive and significant. It reflects that countries with flexible exchange regime may have growth rate higher than countries in intermediate exchange regime. Th e implication to be drawn for WAEMU countries is that the search for a domestic nominal anchor would maintain inflation at low and stable levels while improving growth performance.(original abstract)
Twórcy
  • Laboratoire de Recherche en Economie de Saint-Louis (LARES/Sénégal) et Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orléans (LEO/France)
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Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
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Identyfikator YADDA
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