Analyse empirique de la relation entre la volatilité de l'écart de production et la croissance économique : le cas du Liban

• Autorzy: Jean-François Verne , Rosette Ghossoub Sayegh

Warianty tytułu

Empirical Analysis of the Relationship Between Cycle Growth Volatility and Economic Growth: the Case of Lebanon

• Języki publikacji: FR

Abstrakty

Cet article analyse l'évolution du cycle de croissance et sa volatilité au Liban pendant la période 1970-2015. D'abord, l'évolution du PIB observé par rapport à son niveau tendanciel est déterminée en tenant compte des dates de rupture coïncidant avec les confl its et les instabilités politiques. Ensuite, une estimation de l'infl uence des confl its sur la volatilité de l'écart de production a lieu afi n d'analyser la relation causale entre cette même volatilité et la croissance. Il s'est avéré que, contrairement à ce qui est suggéré par la littérature, c'est la croissance économique qui explique la volatilité des cycles économiques.(abstrakt oryginalny)

EN

This paper analyses the evolution of the growth cycle and volatility in Lebanon during the period of 1970-2015. First, GDP growth observed over its potential level is determined by taking into account the break dates coinciding with conflict and political instability. Th en, an estimation of the impact of conflict on the output gap volatility is held to analyze the causal relationship between this same volatility and growth. It turned out that contrary to what is suggested by the literature, it is economic growth that explains the volatility of economic cycles.(original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Empirical analysis; Economic growth indicators; Economic growth; Production; Effectiveness

PL

Analiza empiryczna; Mierniki wzrostu gospodarczego; Wzrost gospodarczy; Produkcja; Efektywność

• Czasopismo: Revue Internationale des Economistes de Langue Française : revue de l'Association Internationale de Economistes de Langue Française avec la collaboration Université des Sciences Economiques et de Gestion
• Rocznik: 2017
• Tom: 2
• Numer: nr 1
• Strony: 172--189

Twórcy

autor

Jean-François Verne

• Université Saint-Joseph, Beyrouth

autor

Rosette Ghossoub Sayegh

• Université Saint-Joseph, Beyrouth

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