PL EN


Preferencje help
Widoczny [Schowaj] Abstrakt
Liczba wyników
Czasopismo
2020 | nr 3 | 372--400
Tytuł artykułu

Crowding-in and Crowding-out Effects of Public Investments in Poland and Portugal : a Comparative Study

Warianty tytułu
Efekty pobudzania i wypierania inwestycji publicznych w Polsce i Portugalii : studium porównawcze
Języki publikacji
EN
Abstrakty
Celem artykułu jest przeprowadzenie analizy porównawczej wpływu wydatków publicznych o charakterze inwestycyjnym gospodarkę Polski i Portugalii w latach 1997-2017. W teorii ekonomii istnieją rozbieżne opinie co do wpływu ekspansywnej polityki fiskalnej na wzrost gospodarczy. Bezpośredni i pośredni wpływ rosnących wydatków rządowych na gospodarkę jest jednym z węzłowych pytań w ocenie efektywności polityki wydatków państwowych. W analizie empirycznej wykorzystano kilka modeli regresji do zbadania kluczowych relacji związanych z oceną makroekonomicznych efektów wydatków publicznych w obydwu badanych krajach. Wyniki estymacji wskazują na istnienie w Polsce efektów pozytywnych, jeśli chodzi o wpływ publicznych wydatków inwestycyjnych na wielkość inwestycji sektora prywatnego oraz na produkt krajowy brutto. Innym spostrzeżeniem jest brak negatywnego wpływu inwestycji sektora publicznego na konkurencyjność gospodarki mierzoną zmianami realnego kursu walutowego. Potwierdza to obecność efektu komplementarności pomiędzy inwestycjami prywatnymi i publicznymi i wyklucza relację substytucyjną. Natomiast w odniesieniu do Portugalii nie stwierdzono w skali całego badanego okresu pozytywnego wpływu inwestycji publicznych na gospodarkę. Może to wskazywać, że początkowy stymulujący efekt dopływu funduszy unijnych oraz krajowych publicznych nakładów inwestycyjnych, obserwowany w poprzednich okresach, stopniowo zanikał i przekształcał się w tendencję do wypierania inwestycji prywatnych przez inwestycje publiczne. Jednak ten rezultat można również przypisać późniejszej stagnacji gospodarki związanej z konsekwencjami kryzysu 2008+ i późniejszej recesji, w których to warunkach publiczne nakłady nie są zdolne do z aktywizowania w istotnym stopniu prywatnych przedsiębiorstw. Koszt finansowy reprezentowany przez nominalną stopę procentową również odgrywa istotną rolę w kształtowaniu prywatnych inwestycji zarówno w Polsce, jak i w Portugalii, a w konsekwencji w kształtowaniu dynamiki produkcji. (abstrakt oryginalny)
EN
The article aims to analyse on a comparative basis the effects of public investment spending on the economies of Poland and Portugal in the period 1996-2017. In the economic theory, there are divergent opinions as to the impact of expansionary fiscal policy on economic growth. The direct and indirect impact of the increasing government spending on the economy is one of the key questions in assessing the effectiveness of government spending policy. In the empirical analysis several regression models were used to examine major relationships that are essential in the assessment of the macroeconomic effects of public spending in both countries. The estimation results for Poland point at the presence of a positive effect of public investments on the volume of private sector's investment outlays and gross domestic product. Another finding is the absence of negative effects of public investments on economic competitiveness measured by the real exchange rate. This confirms the existence of complementarity between private and public investment and excludes their substitutability. On the other hand, in case of Portugal, there is no evidence of the positive macroeconomic influence of public investment spending throughout the analysed period. This may indicate that the initial stimulating effect of the inflow of EU funds combined with domestic public investment outlays, which was observed in earlier years, tended to disappear and transformed into crowding-out of private investmens by public investments. However, this result can also be connected with the economic stagnation resulting from the 2008+ crisis and the later recession when public outlays were not able to activate the private companies enough. Financial costs represented by nominal interest rate played also an important role in shaping private investment in both Poland and Portugal and in the output evolution. (original abstract)
Czasopismo
Rocznik
Numer
Strony
372--400
Opis fizyczny
Twórcy
  • Warsaw School of Economics, Poland
Bibliografia
  • Afonso A., Aubyn M. (2008), Macroeconomic Rates of Return of Public and Pnvate Investment: Crowding-in and Crowding-out Effects, European Central Bank, Working Paper Series, no. 864.
  • Afonso A., Sousa R. (2009), The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy, European Central Bank, Working Paper Series, no. 991.
  • Afonso A., Sousa R.M. (2012), The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy "Applied Economics", no. 44(34), pp.4439-4454.
  • Agnello L., Furceri D., Sousa R.M. (2013), How best to measure discretionary fiscal policy? Assessing its impact on private spending, "Economic Modelling. Elsevier", vol. 34(C), pp. 15-24.
  • Andrade J.S., Duarte A.P. (2013), The Dutch Disease in the Portuguese Economy, "Estu-dos do GEMF, Faculdade de Economia da Universidade de Coimbra", no. 05.
  • Andrade J.S., Duarte A.P. (2016), Crowding-in and crowding-out effects of public investments in the Portugese economy, "International Review of Applied Economics", no. 30(4), pp. 488-506.
  • Argimon I., Gonzalez-Paramo J., Roldan J. (1997), Evidence of Public Spending: Crowding-out from a Panel ofOECD Countries, "Applied Economics", no. 29(8), pp. 1001-1010.
  • Aschauer D.A. (1989a), Does Public Capital Crowd out Private Capital? "Journal of Monetary Economics", no. 23(2), pp. 177-200.
  • Aschauer D.A. (1989b), Is Public Expenditure Productive?, "Journal of Monetary Economics", no. 24(2), pp. 171-188.
  • Bahal G., Raissi M., Tulin V. (2018), Crowding-out or crowding-in? Public and pnvate investment in India, "World Development. Elsevier", vol. 109(C), pp. 323-333.
  • Balcerzak A.P, Rogalska E. (2014), Crowding out and Crowding in within Keynesian Framework. Do We Need Any New Empirical Research Concerning Them?, Institute of Economic Research, Working Papers, no. 2/2014.
  • Barro R. (1989), A Cross-Country Study of Growth, Saving and Government, NBER Working Paper, no. 2855.
  • Berndt E., Hansson B. (1992), Measuring the Contribution of Public Infrastructure in Sweden, "Scandinavian Journal of Economics", no. 94 (supplement), pp.151-168.
  • Blanchard O.J. (2008), Crowding out, in: The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2nd ed., Palgrave Macmillan, London, pp. 1223-1225.
  • Creel J., Poilon G. (2008), Is Public Capital Productive in Europe?, "International Review of Applied Economics", no. 22(6), p. 673-691.
  • Dreger С, Reimers H.E. (2014), On the Relationship between Public and Pnvate Investment in the Euro Area, DIW Berlin, Discussion Paper no. 1365; https://ssrn.com/ab-stract=2403885 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2403885.
  • Eden M., Kraay A. (2014), "Crowding in " and the returns to government investment in low-income countries, The World Bank, Policy Research Working Paper Series, no. 6781.
  • Esteves R.P. (1998), Crowding-out en Portugal 1879-1910: Una analise exploratoria, "Analise Social", no. 33(2-3), pp. 573-618.
  • Furceri D., Sousa R.M. (2009), The Impact of Government Spending on the Private Sector: Crowding-out versus Crowding-in Effects, Documento de Trabalho, Working Paper Series, NIPE WP 6, Universidade do Minho.
  • Furceri D., Sousa R.M. (2011), Does Government Spending Crowd out Private Consumption and Investment?, "World Economics", no. 12(4), pp. 153-170.
  • Haque M.E., Kneller R. (2015), Why Does Public Investment Fail to Raise Economic Growth? The Role of Corruption, "The Manchester School", no. 83(6), pp. 623- 651.
  • Hatano T. (2010), Crowding-in Effect of Public Investment on Private Investment, "Public Policy Review", no. 6(1), pp. 105-120.
  • Heintz J. (2010), The Impact of Public Capital on US Private Economy: New Evidence and Analysis, "International Review of Applied Economics", no. 24(5), pp. 619-632.
  • Hendry D.E., Doornik J.A. (2014), Empirical Model Discovery and Theory Evaluation, The MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
  • Hendry D.E, Krolzig H.M. (2001), Automatic Econometric Model Selection, Timberlake Consultants Press,.London.
  • Hendry D.E, Krolzig H.M. (2005), The Properties of Automatic Gets Modelling, "Economic Journal", no. 115(502), pp. C32-C61.
  • Hur S.K., Mallick S., Park D. (2014), Fiscal Policy and Crowding out in Developing Asia, Environment and Planning C", no. 32(6), pp. 1117-1132.
  • Johansen S. (1995), Likelihood Based Inference on Cointegration in the Vector Autoregres-sive Model, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
  • Johansen S., Juselius K. (1990), Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration - With Applications to the Demand for Money, "Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics", no. 52(2), pp. 169-210.
  • Kamps C. (2004), The Dynamic Effects of Public Capital: VAR Evidence for 22 OECD Countries, Kiel Working Papers, no. 1224, Kiel Institute of World Economy (IfW).
  • Kao C, Chiang M.H.. (2000), On the Estimation and Inference of a Cointegrated Regression in Panel Data, "Advances in Econometrics", no. 15, pp. 179-222.
  • Lynde C, Richmond J. (1993), Public Capital and Long-Run Costs in UK. Manufacturing, "The Economic Journal", no. 103(419), pp. 880-893.
  • Mahmoudzadeh M., Sadeghi S. (2013), Fiscal spending and crowding out effect: A comparison between developed and developing countries. "Institutions and Economies", no. 5, pp. 31-40.
  • Marinheiro C. (2006), The Sustainability of Portuguese Fiscal Policy from a Historical Perspective, "Empirica", no. 33(2-3), pp. 155-179.
  • Marinheiro C. (2006), Updated Version of the Portuguese Historical Fiscal Data Compiled by Marinheiro Carlos; http://www4.fe.uc.pt/carlosm/research/pdf/Data-CMarinhei-ro2006-Update2013.xlsx.
  • Merriman D. (1990), Public Capital and Regional Output: Another Look at Some Japanese and American Data, "Regional Science and Urban Economics", no. 20(4), pp. 437-458.
  • Mittnik S., Neumann Т. (2001), Dynamie Effects of Public Investment: Vector Autore-gression Evidence from Six Industrialized Countries, "Empirical Economics", no. 26, pp. 429-446.
  • Mundell A. (1990), Why Has Productivity Growth Declined? Productivity and Public Investment, "New England Economic Review", no. 1, pp. 3-22.
  • Otto G., Voss G.M. (1996), Public Capital and Private Production in Austria, "Southern Economic Journal", no. 62(3), pp. 723-738.
  • Pereira A.M. (2000), Public Capital Formation and Private Investment: What Crowds in What?, "Public Finance Review", no. 29(1), pp. 3-25.
  • Pereira A.M. (2001), Is All Public Capital Created Equal?, "Review of Economics and Statistics", no. 82(3), pp. 513-518.
  • Pereira A.M., Andraz J.M. (2001), Investimento Publico en Infra-Estruturas de Transporte en Portugal Continental, Ministerio do Planeamento, Lisbon.
  • Pereira A.M., Andraz J.M. (2005), Public Investment in Transportation Infrastructure and Economic Performance in Portugal, "Review of Development Economics", no. 9(2), pp. 177-196.
  • Pereira A.M., Andraz J.M.. (2003), Public Capital and Growth in the U.S.: A Sector-Specific Analysis, "Public Finance Review", no. 31(1), pp. 66-90.
  • Pereira A.M., Sagales O.R. (1999), Public Capital Formation and Regional Development in Spain, "Review of Development Economics", no. 3(3), pp. 281-294.
  • Perotti R. (2004), Public Investment: Another (Different) Look, IGIER Working Paper, no. 277.
  • Romero A., Strauch R. (2003), Public Finances and Long-Term Growth in Europe - Evidence from a Panel Data Analysis, European Central Bank, Working Paper, no 246.
  • Seitz H. (1994), Public Capital and Demand for Private Inputs, "Journal of Public Economics", no. 54(2), pp.238-307.
  • Şen H., Kay a A. (2014), Crowding-Out or Crowding-In? Analyzing the Effects of Government Spending on Private Investment in Turkey, "Panoeconomicus", no. 61(6), pp. 631-651.
  • Shah A. (1992), Dynamics of Public Infrastructure, Industrial Productivity and Profitability, "Review of Economics and Statistics", no. 74 (1), pp. 28-36.
  • Snyder T.C. (2011), Do federal budget deficits cause crowding out?, "Research in Business and Economics Journal", vol. 4.
  • Sonaglio СМ., Braga M.J., Campos A.C. (2010), Investimento publico e privado en Brasil: Evidencia dos efectos crowding-in e crowding-out en periodo 1995-2006, "Revista Economia", no. 11(2), pp. 383-401.
  • Sturm J.E., de Haan J. (1995), Is Public Expenditure Really Productive? New Evidence for the U.S.A. and the Netherlands, "Economic Modeling", no. 12(1), pp. 60-72.
  • Valla N., Brand Т., Doisy S. (2014), A new architecture for public investment in Europe, "Cepii Policy", no. 4.
  • Voss G. (2002), Public and Private Investment in the United States and Canada, "Economic Modelling", pp. 19(4), pp. 641-664.
  • Xu X., Yan Y. (2014), Does government investment crowd out private investment in China ?, "Journal of Economic Policy Reform", no. 17(1), pp. 1-12.
  • Żeljko M. (2015), Crowding out vs. crowding in effects in transitional countries, "Perspectives of Innovations, Economics and Business", no. 15, pp. 126-136.
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikatory
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.ekon-element-000171602081

Zgłoszenie zostało wysłane

Zgłoszenie zostało wysłane

Musisz być zalogowany aby pisać komentarze.
JavaScript jest wyłączony w Twojej przeglądarce internetowej. Włącz go, a następnie odśwież stronę, aby móc w pełni z niej korzystać.