Crowding-in and Crowding-out Effects of Public Investments in Poland and Portugal : a Comparative Study

• Autorzy: Agnieszka Domańska

Warianty tytułu

Efekty pobudzania i wypierania inwestycji publicznych w Polsce i Portugalii : studium porównawcze

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The article aims to analyse on a comparative basis the effects of public investment spending on the economies of Poland and Portugal in the period 1996-2017. In the economic theory, there are divergent opinions as to the impact of expansionary fiscal policy on economic growth. The direct and indirect impact of the increasing government spending on the economy is one of the key questions in assessing the effectiveness of government spending policy. In the empirical analysis several regression models were used to examine major relationships that are essential in the assessment of the macroeconomic effects of public spending in both countries. The estimation results for Poland point at the presence of a positive effect of public investments on the volume of private sector's investment outlays and gross domestic product. Another finding is the absence of negative effects of public investments on economic competitiveness measured by the real exchange rate. This confirms the existence of complementarity between private and public investment and excludes their substitutability. On the other hand, in case of Portugal, there is no evidence of the positive macroeconomic influence of public investment spending throughout the analysed period. This may indicate that the initial stimulating effect of the inflow of EU funds combined with domestic public investment outlays, which was observed in earlier years, tended to disappear and transformed into crowding-out of private investmens by public investments. However, this result can also be connected with the economic stagnation resulting from the 2008+ crisis and the later recession when public outlays were not able to activate the private companies enough. Financial costs represented by nominal interest rate played also an important role in shaping private investment in both Poland and Portugal and in the output evolution. (original abstract)

Celem artykułu jest przeprowadzenie analizy porównawczej wpływu wydatków publicznych o charakterze inwestycyjnym gospodarkę Polski i Portugalii w latach 1997-2017. W teorii ekonomii istnieją rozbieżne opinie co do wpływu ekspansywnej polityki fiskalnej na wzrost gospodarczy. Bezpośredni i pośredni wpływ rosnących wydatków rządowych na gospodarkę jest jednym z węzłowych pytań w ocenie efektywności polityki wydatków państwowych. W analizie empirycznej wykorzystano kilka modeli regresji do zbadania kluczowych relacji związanych z oceną makroekonomicznych efektów wydatków publicznych w obydwu badanych krajach. Wyniki estymacji wskazują na istnienie w Polsce efektów pozytywnych, jeśli chodzi o wpływ publicznych wydatków inwestycyjnych na wielkość inwestycji sektora prywatnego oraz na produkt krajowy brutto. Innym spostrzeżeniem jest brak negatywnego wpływu inwestycji sektora publicznego na konkurencyjność gospodarki mierzoną zmianami realnego kursu walutowego. Potwierdza to obecność efektu komplementarności pomiędzy inwestycjami prywatnymi i publicznymi i wyklucza relację substytucyjną. Natomiast w odniesieniu do Portugalii nie stwierdzono w skali całego badanego okresu pozytywnego wpływu inwestycji publicznych na gospodarkę. Może to wskazywać, że początkowy stymulujący efekt dopływu funduszy unijnych oraz krajowych publicznych nakładów inwestycyjnych, obserwowany w poprzednich okresach, stopniowo zanikał i przekształcał się w tendencję do wypierania inwestycji prywatnych przez inwestycje publiczne. Jednak ten rezultat można również przypisać późniejszej stagnacji gospodarki związanej z konsekwencjami kryzysu 2008+ i późniejszej recesji, w których to warunkach publiczne nakłady nie są zdolne do z aktywizowania w istotnym stopniu prywatnych przedsiębiorstw. Koszt finansowy reprezentowany przez nominalną stopę procentową również odgrywa istotną rolę w kształtowaniu prywatnych inwestycji zarówno w Polsce, jak i w Portugalii, a w konsekwencji w kształtowaniu dynamiki produkcji. (abstrakt oryginalny)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Public investment; Fiscal policy; Macroeconomic variables

PL

Inwestycje publiczne; Polityka fiskalna; Zmienne makroekonomiczne

• Czasopismo: Ekonomista
• Rocznik: 2020
• Numer: nr 3
• Strony: 372--400

Twórcy

autor

Agnieszka Domańska

• Warsaw School of Economics, Poland

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