Preferencje help
Widoczny [Schowaj] Abstrakt
Liczba wyników
2020 | 12 | nr 2 | 113--144
Tytuł artykułu

The Analysis of the Tobacco Product Bans Using a Random Coefficients Logit Model

Treść / Zawartość
Warianty tytułu
Języki publikacji
The studies of tobacco demand accounting for product diversity have attracted much attention in the literature, but the ex ante measurements of the effects of product bans are relatively scarce. This paper aims to fill this gap and considers the 2020 EU-induced ban on menthol cigarettes as an example, focusing on the Polish market. In the proposed approach, a 2004-2017 product level dataset for Poland is used to estimate a random coefficients logit model and simulate the effects of the menthol ban and, for comparison, a cigarette excise hike. The dataset is unique as it encompassess substantial changes in the tobacco tax level and structure that took place in Poland over the sample period. The simulations suggest that the ban, despite switching of consumers towards non-menthol cigarettes, results in relatively strong reduction in demand for duty-paid cigarettes, stronger than in the case of the excise hike.(original abstract)
Opis fizyczny
  • Warsaw School of Economics; EY Poland, Poland
  • [1] Ackerberg D., Benkard C. L., Berry S., Pakes A., (2007), Econometric Tools for Analyzing Market Outcomes, [in:] Handbook of Econometrics, volume 6 (Part A), [eds.:] Heckman J. J., Leamer E. E., Elsevier, 4171-4276.
  • [2] Adda J., Cornaglia F., (2006), Taxes, Cigarette Consumption, and Smoking Intensity, American Economic Review 96(4), 1013-1028.
  • [3] Armstrong T. B., (2016), Large Market Asymptotics for Differentiated Product Demand Estimators With Economic Models of Supply, Econometrica (84), 1961-1980.
  • [4] Barzel Y., (1976), An Alternative Approach to the Analysis of Taxation, The Journal of Political Economy 84(6), 1177-1197.
  • [5] Berry S., Levinsohn J., Pakes A., (1995), Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium, Econometrica 63(4), 841-890.
  • [6] Berry S., Linton O. B., Pakes A., (2004), Limit Theorems for Estimating the Parameters of Differentiated Product Demand Systems, The Review of Economic Studies (71), 613-654.
  • [7] Brunner D., Heiss F., Romahn A., Weiser C., (2017), Reliable Estimation of Random Coefficient Logit Demand Models, Discussion Paper 267.
  • [8] Brunner D., Weiser C., Romahn A., (2019), BLPestimatoR: Performs a BLP Demand Estimation,, r package version 0.3.0.
  • [9] CBOS, (2018), Konsumpcja nikotyny, Raport z badań ilościowych dla Biura do Spraw Substancji Chemicznych, html?id=966, accessed 16th of November 2019.
  • [10] Ciliberto F., Kuminoff N. V., (2010), Public Policy and Market Competition: How the Master Settlement Agreement Changed the Cigarette Industry, The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis and Policy (Frontiers) 10(1), Art. 63.
  • [11] Evans W. N., Farrelly M. C., (1998), The Compensating Behavior of Smokers: Taxes, Tar, and Nicotine, The RAND Journal of Economics 29(3), 578-595.
  • [12] Farrelly M., Nimsch C., Hyland A., Cummings M., (2004), The effects of higher cigarette prices on tar and nicotine consumption in a cohort of adult smokers, Health Economics 13(1), 49-58.
  • [13] Florkowski W. J., McNamara K. T., (1992), Policy implications of alcohol and tobacco demand in Poland, Journal of Policy Modeling 14(1), 93-98.
  • [14] Gallet C. A., List J. A., (2003), Cigarette demand: a meta-analysis of elasticities, Health Economics 12(10), 821-835.
  • [15] Knittel C. R., Metaxoglou K., (2014), Estimation of Random-Coeffcient Demand Models: Two Empiricists' Perspective, The Review of Economics and Statistics 96(1), 34-59.
  • [16] Levy D. T., Pearson J. L., Villanti A. C., Blackman K., Vallone D. M., Niaura R. S., Abrams D. B., (2011), Modeling the Future Effects of a Menthol Ban on Smoking Prevalence and Smoking-Attributable Deaths in the United States, American Journal of Public Health 101(7), 1236-1240.
  • [17] Liu H., Rizzo J. A., Wu Q. S. F., (2015), How do smokers respond to cigarette taxes? Evidence from China's cigarette industry, Health Economics 24(10), 1314- 1330.
  • [18] McFadden D., (1973), Conditional Logit Analysis of Qualitative Choice Behavior, [in:] Frontiers of Econometrics, [ed.:] P. Zarembka, Academic Press, New York, 105-142.
  • [19] Min H., (2011), Reform in a Differentiated-Product Industry: The Case of the Korean Cigarette Manufacturing Industry, The Korean Economic Review 27(1), 57-74.
  • [20] Nevo A., (2000a), Mergers with differentiated products: the case of the readyto-eat cereal industry, RAND Journal of Economics 31(3), 395-421.
  • [21] Nevo A., (2000b), A Practitioner's Guide to Estimation of Random-Coeffcients Logit Models of Demand, Journal of Economics and Management Strategy 9(4), 513-548.
  • [22] Nevo A., (2001), Measuring Market Power in the Ready-to-Eat Cereal Industry, Econometrica 69(2), 307-342.
  • [23] O'Connor R. J., Bansal-Travers M., Carter L. P., Cummings K. M., (2012), What would menthol smokers do if menthol in cigarettes were banned? Behavioral intentions and simulated demand, Addiction 107(7), 1330-1338.
  • [24] Olesiński B., Rozkrut M., Torój A., (2020), How Time-Varying Elasticities of Demand Translate into the Excise Related Laffer Surface, Argumenta Oeconomica 1(44), forthcoming.
  • [25] Park S., (2010), Essays on Time-varying Consumer Preferences, chapter Preference Evolution in the South Korean Cigarette Market, 40-100, A Dissertation Presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School of Cornell University In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy.
  • [26] Pham V., Prentice D., (2013), A Random Coefficients Logit Analysis of the Counterfactual: A Merger and Divestiture in the Australian Cigarette Industry, mimeo,, accessed 4th of November, 2017.
  • [27] Pękała P., Torój A., (2017), Wpływ czynników cenowych i niecenowych na konsumpcję tytoniu: analiza danych panelowych, Roczniki Kolegium Analiz Ekonomicznych SGH 47, 157-176.
  • [28] Ross H., Kostova D., Stoklosa M., Leon M., (2014), The Impact of Cigarette Excise Taxes on Smoking Cessation Rates From 1994 to 2010 in Poland, Russia, and Ukraine, Nicotine & Tobacco Research, 16 (Supplement 1), 37-43.
  • [29] Saczuk K., (2014), Badanie Aktywności Ekonomicznej Ludności w Polsce w latach 1995-2010. Korekta danych, Materiały i Studia 301, Narodowy Bank Polski.
  • [30] Tan W., (2006), The Effects of Taxes and Advertising Restrictions on the Market Structure of the U.S. Cigarette Market, Review of Industrial Organization 28(3), 231-251.
  • [31] Tan W., (2013), A Dynamic Analysis of the U.S. Cigarette Market and Antismoking Policies, [in:] Structural Econometric Models, Advances in Econometrics, volume 31, [eds.:] Fomby T. B., Hill R. C., Jeliazkov I., Escanciano J. C., Hillebrand E., Emerald Group Publishing Limited, 387-432.
  • [32] Tuchman A. E., (2017), Advertising and Demand for Addictive Goods: The Effects of E-Cigarette Advertising, mimeo, https://faculty.kellogg., accessed 4th of November, 2017.
Typ dokumentu
Identyfikator YADDA

Zgłoszenie zostało wysłane

Zgłoszenie zostało wysłane

Musisz być zalogowany aby pisać komentarze.
JavaScript jest wyłączony w Twojej przeglądarce internetowej. Włącz go, a następnie odśwież stronę, aby móc w pełni z niej korzystać.