Impact of Technological Progress on Economic Growth in Develeped Countries. Accounting for Model Uncertainty and Reverse Causality

• Autorzy: Aigerim Anvarbek Kyzy

Warianty tytułu

Wpływ postępu technologicznego na wzrost gospodarczy rozwiniętych gospodarek. uwzględnienie niepewności co do postaci modelu oraz sprzężeń zwrotnych

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The aim of this paper is to analyse the relationship between the determinants of technological innovation and economic growth. Moreover, it is aimed at examining whether expenditures on R&D variable has a stronger impact on economic growth, comparing to other determinants of technological development. The primary reason to choose the topic is that we are living in a century of notable technological change and investigating the relationship between technology progress and economic development is the way to find new methods of accelerating economic growth. The literature on this topic is extremely rich and many authors claim that the main driver of long-term economic growth is technological innovation. Furthermore, over the previous fifty years, a key financial finding has been that technological progress is crucial to long-term economic growth. This paper uses panel data for 19 developed countries over the period of 45 years (1973-2017) to examine the effect of such variables as expenditures on R&D, panel applications and R&D personnel on GDP per capita. The paper uses panel Bayesian Model Averaging under weak exogeneity. The results obtained show that all three indicators of technological innovation have a positive impact on per capita GDP and that expenditures on R&D have the strongest effect on economic growth. (original abstract)

Celem niniejszego opracowania jest analiza relacji między czynnikami warunkującymi technologiczną innowację a wzrostem gospodarczym. Ponadto, ma ono na celu zbadać, czy zmienna dotycząca wydatków na badania i rozwój (B+R) ma silniejszy wpływ na wzrost gospodarczy niż inne wyznaczniki rozwoju technologicznego. Podstawowym powodem wyboru tego tematu jest fakt, że żyjemy w dobie wyjątkowych zmian technologicznych i badanie związku między postępem technologicznym a rozwojem gospodarczym jest sposobem na znalezienie nowych metod przyspieszenia wzrostu gospodarczego. Literatura na ten temat jest wyjątkowo bogata i wielu autorów uważa, że głównym motorem długofalowego wzrostu gospodarczego jest innowacja technologiczna. Co więcej, przez ostatnie 50 lat, główne ustalenia finansowe wskazywały, że postęp technologiczny jest kluczowy dla długofalowego wzrostu gospodarczego. Niniejsze opracowanie wykorzystuje dane panelowe dla 19 krajów rozwiniętych dotyczące 45 lat (1973-2017) w celu zbadania wpływu takich zmiennych jak wydatki na B+R, aplikacje panelowe oraz personel działów B+R na PKB na mieszkańca. Opracowanie wykorzystuje panelowe bayesowskie uśrednianie modeli [Bayesian Model Averaging] w warunkach słabej egzogeniczności. Uzyskane wyniki pokazują, że wszystkie trzy wskaźniki innowacji technologicznej wywierają pozytywny wpływ na PKB na głowę mieszkańca oraz że wydatki B+R mają najsilniejszy wpływ na wzrost gospodarczy. (abstrakt oryginalny)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Economic growth; Research & Development (R+D); Technology; Innovations; Patent; Technological progress

PL

Wzrost gospodarczy; Badania i rozwój (B+R); Technologia; Innowacje; Patenty; Postęp technologiczny

• Czasopismo: Myśl Ekonomiczna i Polityczna
• Rocznik: 2020
• Numer: nr 1 (68)
• Strony: 56--105

Twórcy

autor

Aigerim Anvarbek Kyzy

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Identyfikatory

DOI

10.26399/meip.1(68).2020.03/a.a.kyzy