A Theory of Global Economic Growth in the Very Long-Run: Is a Grand Innovation Slowdown Inevitable?

• Autorzy: Stanislaw Gomulka
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The paper shows how the original semi endogenous and balanced growth model of , and my extended version of it (), could be useful in explaining the key 'stylized facts' of global long-term growth so far, and in predicting its dynamics in the future. During the last two centuries the sector of R&D and education, producing qualitative changes, has been expanding in the world's most developed countries much faster than the sector producing conventional goods. The extended model is used to explore and evaluate. the consequences for the global long-term growth of the end of this unbalanced growth, of the completion of the catching up by most of the world's less developed countries, and of the expected eventual stabilization of the size of the world population. The theory yields a thesis, new in the literature, that the rate of global per capita GDP growth will eventually return to the historically standard very low level, thus implying that the world's technological revolution is going to be an innovation super-fluctuation. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Economic growth theory; Technological progress

PL

Teoria wzrostu gospodarczego; Postęp technologiczny

• Czasopismo: Ekonomia / Uniwersytet Warszawski
• Rocznik: 2019
• Tom: 6
• Numer: nr 53
• Strony: 175--188

Twórcy

autor

Stanislaw Gomulka

• Polish Academy of Sciences

Bibliografia

• [1] Acemoglu, D. (2013). The world our grandchildren will inherit. In: I. Palacios-Huerta (Ed.), In 100 Years. Leading Economists Predict the Future (pp. 1-36). Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press.
• [2] Bloom, N., Jones, C. I., Van Reenen, J., & Webb, M. (2017). Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?, September, NBER Working Paper No. 23782.
• [3] Dinopoulos, E., & Thompson, P. (1998). Schumpeterian growth without scale effects. Journal of Economic Growth, 3, 313-335.
• [4] Easterly, William, and Ross Levine, 2001, "It's Not Factor Accumulation: Stylized Facts and Growth Models". The World Bank Economic Review 15: 177-219.
• [5] Gomulka, S. (1970). Extensions of the "Golden Rule of Research " of Phelps. Review of Economic Studies, 37(1), 73-93.
• [6] Gomulka, S. (1971). Inventive activity, diffusion and the stages of economic growth. Aarhus: Aarhus University Press. Retrieved from researchgate stanislaw gomulka.
• [7] Gomulka, S. (1990). The theory of technological change and economic growth. London-New York: Routlege (Especially chapter 10, "Technological 'Revolution' as an innovation superwave in the world technological frontier area").
• [8] Gomulka, S. (2009). Mechanism and sources of world economic growth. Poznań University of Economics Review, 9, 39-56. Retrieved from researchgate stanislaw gomulka.
• [9] Gomulka, S. (2017). The global economy in the 21st century: Will the trends of the 20th century continue? Central European Economic Journal, 2(49), 62-72. Retrieved from reasearchgate stanislaw gomulka.
• [10] Grossman, G., & Helpman, E. (1991). Innovation and growth in the global economy. MIT Press.
• [11] Howitt, P. (1999). Steady endogenous growth with population and R&D inputs growing. Journal of Political Economy, 107, 4.
• [12] Ignacio Palacios-Huerta, ed., 2013, In 100 Years. Leading economists predict the future, Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
• [13] Jones, C. I. (1995). Time series tests of endogenous growth models. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(2), 495-525.
• [14] Jones, C. I., & Romer, P. M. (2009). The new Kaldor facts: Ideas, institutions, population, and human capital. National BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, WP 15094 (republished in 2010, in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2(1), 224-45).
• [15] Kaldor, Nicholas,1961. "Capital Accumulation and Economic Growth", in The Theory of Capital, eds. Fredrich A. Lutz and Douglas C. Hague, 177-222, London:St Martin Press.
• [16] Lotka, A. J. (1926). The frequency distribution of scientific productivity. Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences, 16, 317.
• [17] Maddison,A., 1979, Long run dynamics of productivity growth, Banca Nationale del Lavoro Quarterly Review , March.
• [18] Maddison, A. (2007). Counturs of the world economy, I-2030 AD. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
• [19] Peretto, P. (1998). Technological change, market rivarly, and the evolution of the capitalist engine of growth. Journal of Economic Growth, 3, 53-80.
• [20] Phelps, E. S. (1966). Models of technical progress and the golden rule of research. Review of Economic Studies, 33(2), 133-45.
• [21] Price, D. J. de S. (1963). Little science, big science. New York: Columbia University Press.
• [22] Young, A. (1998). Growth without scale effects. Journal of Political Economy, 106, 41-63.

Identyfikatory

DOI

DOI: 10.2478/ceej-2019-0009