Preferencje help
Widoczny [Schowaj] Abstrakt
Liczba wyników
2020 | z. 149 | 155--165
Tytuł artykułu

Critical Analysis of Classical Scenario-based Decision Rules for Pure Strategy Searching

Treść / Zawartość
Warianty tytułu
Języki publikacji
Purpose: The contribution briefly presents the essence and applications of the well-known classical decision rules designed for decision making under uncertainty with unknown probabilities and based on scenario planning. We concentrate on games against nature, pure strategy searching and one-criterion optimization. Design/methodology/approach: The main goal of this work is to analyse numerous case studies and formulate conclusions concerning the properties (in particular drawbacks and limitations) of the aforementioned strategic procedures. Findings: The paper focuses on the limited usefulness of classical decision rules in real economic decision problems. It is advised to apply them very carefully. Research limitations/implications: A similar analysis for mixed strategy searching and multi- criteria optimization should be performed within a future research. Originality/value: The work offers numerous practical guidelines modifying existing procedures and allowing decision makers to obtain logic recommendations. (original abstract)
Opis fizyczny
  • Poznań University of Economics and Business
  • 1. Chateaufneuf, A., Cohen, M., and Jaffray, J.-Y. (2006). Décicion dans l'incertain; les modèles classiques. InŁ D. Bouyssou, M. Pirlot, and H. Prade (Eds.), Concepts et méthodes pour l'aide à la décicion 2: risque et incertain (pp. 49-65). Hermes Lavoisier.
  • 2. Clarke, H.R. (2008). Classical decision rules and adaptation to climate change. Australian Journal of Agriculture and Resource Economics, 52(4), 487-504, doi: 10.1111/j.1467-8489.2008.00421.x.
  • 3. Czerwiński, Z. (1972). Matematyka na usługach ekonomii. Warszawa: PWN.
  • 4. Gaspars-Wieloch, H. (2014a). Modifications of the Hurwicz's decision rule. Central European Journal of Operations Research, 22(4), 779-794. doi: 10.1007/s10100-013- 0302-y.
  • 5. Gaspars-Wieloch, H. (2014b). Modification of the maximin joy criterion for decision making under uncertainty. Quantitative Methods in Economics, XV(2), 84-93.
  • 6. Gaspars-Wieloch, H. (2017). Newsvendor problem under complete uncertainty: a case of innovative products. Central European Journal of Operations Research, 25(3), 561-585, doi: 10.1007/s10100-016-0458-3.
  • 7. Gaspars-Wieloch, H. (2018a). The impact of the structure of the payoff matrix on the final decision made under uncertainty. Asia-Pacific Journal of Operational Research, 35(1). doi: 10.1142/S021759591850001X.
  • 8. Gaspars-Wieloch, H. (2018b). Podejmowanie decyzji w warunkach niepewności - planowanie scenariuszowe, reguły decyzyjne i wybrane zastosowania ekonomiczne [Decision making under uncertainty - scenario planning, decision rules and selected economics applications]. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Poznaniu.
  • 9. Gaspars-Wieloch, H. (2019). Project Net Present Value estimation under uncertainty. Central European Journal of Operations Research, 27(1), 179-197, doi: 10.1007/s10100-017-0500-0.
  • 10. Hansson S.O. (2011). Decision theory: an Overview. In M. Lovric (Eds.). International Encyclopedia of Statistical Science. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer.
  • 11. Hansson, S.O. (2005). Decision theory: a brief introduction. Royal Institute of Technology.
  • 12. Hayashi, T. (2008). Regret aversion and opportunity dependence. Journal of Economic Theory, 139(1), 242-268. doi: 10.1016/j.jet.2007.07.001.
  • 13. Hurwicz, L. (1952). A criterion for decision making under uncertainty. Technical Report, 355. Cowles Commission.
  • 14. Ignasiak, E. (1996). Badania operacyjne. Warszawa: PWE.
  • 15. Ioan, C., and Ioan, G. (2011). A method of choice of the best alternative in the multiple solutions case in the games theory. Journal of Accounting and Management, 1(1), 5-8.
  • 16. Kamiński, B., Jakubczyk, M., Szufel, P. (2017). A framework for sensitivity analysis of decision trees. Central European Journal of Operations Research. doi: 10.1007/s10100-017-0479-6.
  • 17. Kaufmann, A., and Faure, R. (1965). Invitation à la recherche opérationelle. Paris: Dunod.
  • 18. Milnor, J. (1954). Games against nature. In: R.M. Thrall, C.H. Coombs, and R.L. Davis (Eds.), Decision processes (pp. 49-60). New York: Wiley.
  • 19. Officer, R.R., and Anderson, J.R. (1968). Risk, uncertainty and farm management decisions. Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, 36(1), 3-19.
  • 20. Puppe, C., and Schlag, K. (2009). Choice under complete uncertainty when outcome spaces are state dependent. Theory and Decision, 66, 1-16.
  • 21. Savage, L.J. (1951). The theory of statistical decision. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 46, 55-67. doi: 10.2307/2280094.
  • 22. Sen, A.K. (1984). Collective choice and social welfare. Elsevier.
  • 23. Sikora, W. (Ed.) (2008). Badania operacyjne [Operations research]. Warszawa: PWE.
  • 24. Trzaskalik, T. (Ed.) (2008). Wprowadzenie do badań operacyjnych z komputerem [Introduction to operations research with computers]. Warszawa: PWE.
  • 25. Wald, A. (1950). Statistical decision functions. New York: Wiley.
Typ dokumentu
Identyfikator YADDA

Zgłoszenie zostało wysłane

Zgłoszenie zostało wysłane

Musisz być zalogowany aby pisać komentarze.
JavaScript jest wyłączony w Twojej przeglądarce internetowej. Włącz go, a następnie odśwież stronę, aby móc w pełni z niej korzystać.