GDP Effects of Pandemics: A Historical Perspective

Czasopismo

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• Autorzy: Maciej Stefański
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The paper estimates dynamic effects of pandemics on GDP per capita with local projections,controlling for the effects of wars and weatherconditions,using a noveldataset that covers 33 countries and stretches back to the 13th century. Pandemics are found to have prolonged and highly statistically significant effects on GDP per capita -apandemic killing 1% of the population tendsto increase GDP per capita by approx.0.3% after about 20 years.The results are qualitatively robust to various model specifications, geographical division of the sampleand anexclusion of extreme events such as the Black Death and the New World epidemics. The effects of pandemics differ from those of wars and weather, which are negative and die out quicker,in line with the neoclassical growth model. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

COVID-19; Gross domestic product (GDP); Pandemic

PL

COVID-19; Produkt krajowy brutto (PKB); Pandemia

• Czasopismo: ---
• Strony: 37

Twórcy

autor

Maciej Stefański

• Warsaw School of Economics

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