A Coherent Mortality and Life Expectancy Forecasting - a Comparison of Frequentist and Bayesian Approaches

• Autorzy: Justyna Majewska
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The aim of this work is to discuss and demonstrate the possibility of forecasting life expectancy using joint female-male model instead of one-sex (independently), presented on the example of Poland. The model has a two-level Bayesian hierarchical structure, which is known from most other models and has been successfully established in modern stochastic mortali-ty forecasting. Among many variations of mortality models the following models are compared: 1) classical model for forecasting mortality for single population Poisson log- -bilinear Lee-Carter, 2) an alternative to the concept of LC method based on the functional data analysis used for both: projection of mortality for single population and two-population 3) an alternative approach to life expectancy forecasting that uses the concept of direct modeling, rather than via mortality forecasts, and is based on use a Bayesian hierarchical model for life expectancy. (fragment of text)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Life expectancy; Demographic forecasting; Mathematical model of mortality; Bayesian models

PL

Długość życia; Prognozowanie demograficzne; Matematyczne modele umieralności; Modele bayesowskie

• Czasopismo: Scientific Publications / University of Economics in Katowice
• Rocznik: 2021
• Tom: Modeling of Complex Data Sets and Risk Analysis
• Strony: 30--45

Twórcy

autor

Justyna Majewska

• University of Economics in Katowice, Poland

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