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The aim of this work is to discuss and demonstrate the possibility of forecasting life expectancy using joint female-male model instead of one-sex (independently), presented on the example of Poland. The model has a two-level Bayesian hierarchical structure, which is known from most other models and has been successfully established in modern stochastic mortali-ty forecasting. Among many variations of mortality models the following models are compared: 1) classical model for forecasting mortality for single population Poisson log- -bilinear Lee-Carter, 2) an alternative to the concept of LC method based on the functional data analysis used for both: projection of mortality for single population and two-population 3) an alternative approach to life expectancy forecasting that uses the concept of direct modeling, rather than via mortality forecasts, and is based on use a Bayesian hierarchical model for life expectancy. (fragment of text)
Rocznik
Strony
30--45
Opis fizyczny
Twórcy
autor
- University of Economics in Katowice, Poland
Bibliografia
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Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
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