Modeling Macroeconomic Indicators in Unstable Economies

• Autorzy: Yuliia Zhukova , Olena Sobolieva-Tereshchenko
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

A method for analysis of the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators based on the model of a piecewise trend for economies of unstable growth is proposed. The relevance of the article is supported by the absence of adequate mathematical models and the inadequacy of traditional continuous models to describe the features of economic dynamics of this type. Its application is demonstrated on the examples of Ukraine, Greece and Italy in comparison with stable developing countries of Eastern Europe - the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Poland. In the process of approbation new indices of instability based on this model have been developed. A higher degree of conformity of the proposed model is proved in comparison with traditional continuous models not only for countries with signs of unstable economic dynamics, but also for some countries with stable economies. During approbation, a new index of instability of growth was developed based on this piecewise linear trend model. The indices of instability of growth were calculated for 43 European countries for the period from 1989 to 2019 and their rating was built. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Gross domestic product (GDP); Least squares method; Economic growth; Macroeconomic indicators

PL

Produkt krajowy brutto (PKB); Metoda najmniejszych kwadratów; Wzrost gospodarczy; Wskaźniki makroekonomiczne

• Czasopismo: Journal of International Studies
• Rocznik: 2021
• Tom: 14
• Numer: nr 2
• Strony: 128--148

Twórcy

autor

Yuliia Zhukova

• Borys Grinchenko Kyiv University, Ukraine

autor

Olena Sobolieva-Tereshchenko

• Borys Grinchenko Kyiv University, Kyiv, Ukraine

Bibliografia

• Baburin, V.L. (2019). The resistance of the greater Baltic region states to market cycle changes, Baltic Region, 11(1), 4-13. doi:10.5922/2079-8555-2019-1-1.
• Baltas, N., Tsionas, M., & Baltas, K. (2018) Foreign direct investment in OECD countries: a special focus in the case of Greece. Applied Economics, 50(52), 5579-5591. doi: 10.1080/00036846.2018.1488054.
• Basciftci, B., Ahmed, S., Shen, S. (2021). Distributionally robust facility location problem under decision-dependent stochastic demand. European Journal of Operational Research, 292(2), 548-561. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2020.11.002.
• Berg, A., & Ostry, J.D. (2011). Inequality and Unsustainable Growth: Two Sides of the Same Coin? IMF staff discussion note, 11/08. Retrieved from: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Staff-Discussion************Notes/Issues/2016/12/31/Inequality-and-Unsustainable-Growth-Two-Sides-of-the-Same-Coin-24686 (09.04.2021).
• Bird, G., Du, W., Pentecost, E., & Willett, T. (2017) Safe haven or contagion? The disparate effects of Euro-zone crises on non-Euro-zone neighbours. Applied Economics, 49(59), 5895- 5904, doi: 10.1080/00036846.2017.1358445.
• Chletsos, M., & Roupakias, S. (2020). Education and wage inequality before and during the fiscal crisis: A quantile regression analysis for Greece 2006-2016. Review of Development Economics 24(4), 1333-1364/ https://doi.org/10.1111/rode.12695
• Cicceri, G., Inserra, G., & Limosani, M. (2020). A machine learning approach to forecast economic recessions-an Italian case study. Mathematics, 8(2). https://doi.org/10.3390/math8020241
• Coleman, T.F., Levchenkov, D., Li, Y. (2007). Discrete hedging of American-type options using local risk minimization. Journal of Banking and Finance, 31(11), 3398-3419. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2007.04.020
• Eurostat. Retrieved from: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/data/database (09.04.2021).
• Fezzi, C., & Fanghella, V. (2020). Real-Time Estimation of the Short-Run Impact of COVID-19 on Economic Activity Using Electricity Market Data. Environmental and Resource Economics, 76, 885-900. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-020-00467-4.
• Gawon Yoon. (2013). Common change-points in long-term UK bond yields, 1870-1914: a piecewise linear trends approach. Applied Economics Letters, 20(13), 1254-1258, doi: 10.1080/13504851.2013.802084
• Global Index of Cognitive Skills and Educational Attainment Retrieved from: https://www.pearson.com (09.04.2021).
• Göbel, M. & Araújo, T. (2020). Indicators of economic crises: a data-driven clustering approach. Applied Network Science, 5, 44. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41109-020-00280-4.
• Karaçuha, E., Tabatadze, V., Karaçuha, K., Önal, N.Ö., & Ergün, E. (2020). Deep Assessment Methodology Using Fractional Calculus on Mathematical Modeling and Prediction of Gross Domestic Product per Capita of Countries. Mathematics, 8(4) https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/8/4/633.
• Karnitis, G., & Karnitis, E. (2017). Sustainable growth of EU economies and Baltic context: Characteristics and modelling. Journal of International Studies, 10(1), 209-224. doi:10.14254/2071-8330.2017/10-1/15.
• Kasianova, N., Kendiukhov, O., Kochubei, O., Oliinyk, Y., Sokhatska, O., & Zhukova, Y. (2020). Digital transformation as an attractor of Ukraine's economic development. International Journal of Advanced Research in Engineering and Technology (IJARET), 11(7), 340-349.
• Korotayev, A.V., Bilyuga, S.E., & Shishkina, A.R. (2020). Which countries generate Kondratieff waves in global GDP growth rate dynamics in the contemporary world? Journal of Globalization Studies, 11(1), 33-63 doi: 10.30884/jogs/2020.01.03.
• Kowalski, T., & Shachmurov, Y. (2018). Economic Development in Poland and Ukraine: The Case of Foreign Trade. Interdisciplinary Journal of Economics and Business Law, 7(2), 35-61. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/321796744_Economic_Development_in_Poland_and_Ukraine_The_Case_of_Foreign_Trade.
• Laskowska, I., & Dańska-Borsiak, B. (2017). The Importance of Human Capital for The Economic Development of EU Regions. Comparative Economic Research. Central and Eastern Europe, 19(5), 63-79. https://doi.org/10.1515/cer-2016-0038.
• Matsuyama, K., Sushko, I., & Gardini, L. (2018). A piecewise linear model of credit traps and credit cycles: a complete characterization. Decisions in Economics and Finance, 41, 119-143 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10203-018-0220-5.
• Reyes Escobar, A.A., & Rozo Bernal, C. A. (2020). Greek crisis and financial fragility in Minsky´s instability hypothesis. Revista Galega De Economía, 29 (1), 1-18. https://doi.org/10.15304/rge.29.1.6609.
• Sobolieva-Tereshchenko, O. (2018). The Bank Card Market: a Comparative Analysis of Ukraine and its Neighboring Countries. Comparative Economic Research, 21, 25-44. https://doi.org/10.2478/cer-2018-0025.
• Sobolieva-Tereshchenko, O., & Zhukova, Y. (2020). Stress testing the banking systems: Approach of Ukraine. Journal of Eastern European and Central Asian Research (JEECAR), 7(2), 205-218. https://doi.org/10.15549/jeecar.v7i2.358.
• Soukiazis, E., Antunes, M., & Kostakis, I. (2018). The Greek economy under the twin-deficit pressure: a demand orientated growth approach. International Review of Applied Economics, 32(2), 215-236, doi: 10.1080/02692171.2017.1338678.
• Stjepanović, S. (2018). Relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in 30 countries in Europe. panel EKONOMSKI PREGLED, 69 (1), 43-57.
• Tak KuenSiu (2016). A self-exciting threshold jump-diffusion model for option valuation. Mathematics and Economics, 69, 168-193. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.insmatheco.2016.05.008
• Teichmann, F., Falker, M.-C., Sergi, B.S. (2020). Extractive industries, corruption and potential solutions. The case of Ukraine. Resources Policy 69, 101844.
• The Global Competitiveness Report 2019. Retrieved from: https://www.weforum.org (09.04.2021).
• The Global Innovation Index (GII) 2020. Retrieved from: https://www.globalinnovationindex.org/Home (09.04.2021).
• The Social Progress Imperative. Retrieved from: https://www.socialprogress.org (09.04.2021).
• UNdata. Retrieved from: http://data.un.org (09.04.2021).
• World Bank. Retrieved from: https://databank.worldbank.org/home.aspx (09.04.2021).
• Worldwide Govermance Indicators. Retrieved from: https://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/Home/Reports (09.04.2021).
• Vlasova, K., & Govorova, N. (2018). Socio-economic situation in Greece 2008 - 2018: Results and prospects. Sovremennaya Evropa, 5, 98-109. http://dx.doi.org/10.15211/soveurope5201898109
• Xiaobo, Zhu, Mingguo, Ma, Hong, Yang and Wei, Ge. (2017). Modeling the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Gross Domestic Product in China Using Extended Temporal Coverage Nighttime Light Data. Remote Sensing, 9, 626. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs9060626
• Yi-Chein Chiang, Tung Liang Liao, & Yu-Ling Liu (2008). Performance and Investments in China from Industrial Perspectives: Evidence from Taiwan Firms. Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies, 11 (3), 331-346. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0219091508001374
• Zahariev, A., Zveryаkov, M., Prodanov, S., Zaharieva, G., Angelov, P., Zarkova, S., & Petrova, M. (2020). Debt management evaluation through Support Vector Machines: on the example of Italy and Greece. Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, 7(3), 2382-2393. https://doi.org/10.9770/jesi.2020.7.3(61)

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.14254/2071-8330.2021/14-2/9