PL EN


Preferencje help
Widoczny [Schowaj] Abstrakt
Liczba wyników
2021 | 7 (21) | nr 2 | 50--73
Tytuł artykułu

Determinants of fiscal effort in sub-Saharan African countries: Does conflict matter?

Warianty tytułu
Języki publikacji
EN
Abstrakty
EN
This study investigates the determinants of fiscal effort in sub-Saharan African (SSA) within the framework of fiscal reaction functions. Whereas previous studies focusing on SSA have mainly considered the economic non-debt determinants this study accounts for the role of conflict given its persistence in many SSA countries. It employs a variety of panel econometric methods that are applicable in tackling the problem of endogeneity. Specifically the study employs the instrumental variables fixed effects, the two-step generalised method of moments (GMM) and the traditional two-stage least squares techniques. Mainly the evidence shows that although SSA governments have made fiscal adjustments in response to the escalating levels of debt, conflict impacts negatively on this response in SSA. Furthermore, the results affirm the presence of fiscal fatigue in SSA's fiscal reaction function. Recommendations based on these findings are discussed.(original abstract)
Rocznik
Tom
Numer
Strony
50--73
Opis fizyczny
Twórcy
  • University of Cape Town, South Africa
  • Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa, Abuja, Nigeria
Bibliografia
  • Abbas, S. A., Belhocine, N., El-Ganainy, A., & Horton, M. (2010). A historical public debt database. (Working Paper No. WP/10/245, International Monetary Fund).
  • Adams, C., Ferrarini, B., & Park, D. (2010). Fiscal sustainability in developing Asia. (Economics Working Paper Series No. 205). Asian Development Bank.
  • Adedeji, O. S., & Williams, O. (2007). Fiscal reaction functions in the CFA zone: An analytical perspective (Working Paper No. WP/07/232). International Monetary Fund.
  • Alesina, A, & Passalacqua, A. (2016). The political economy of government debt. In J. B. Taylor & H. Uhlig (Eds.), Handbook of macroeconomics (vol. 2B, pp. 2599- -2651). Amsterdam: Elsevier.
  • Alesina, A, & Perotti, R. (1995). The political economy of budget deficits. Staff Papers (International Monetary Fund), 42(1), 1-31.
  • Baldi, G., & Staehr, K. (2016). The European debt crisis and fiscal reactions in Europe 2000-2014. International Economics and Economic Policy, 13(2), 297-317.
  • Barrett, P. (2018). The fiscal cost of conflict: Evidence from Afghanistan 2005-2016. (Working Paper No. WP/18/204). International Monetary Fund.
  • Barro, R. J. (1979). On the determination of public debt. Journal of Political Economy, 87(5), 940-971.
  • Berti, K., Colesnic, E., Desponts, C., & Pamies, S. (2016). Fiscal reaction functions for European Union countries. (Discussion Papers No. 028). European Economy.
  • Bohn, H. (1995). The sustainability of budget deficits in a stochastic economy. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 27(1), 257-271.
  • Bohn, H. (1998). The behaviour of U.S. public debt and deficits. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 113(3), 949-963.
  • Bond, S. R. (2002). Dynamic panel data models: A guide to micro data methods and practice. Portuguese Economic Journal, 1, 141-162.
  • Burger, P., Stuart, I., Jooste, C., & Cuevas, A. (2012). Fiscal sustainability and the fiscal reaction function for South Africa: Assessment of the past and future policy applications. South African Journal of Economics, 80(2), 209-227.
  • Chalk, N., & Hemming, R. (2000). Assessing fiscal sustainability in theory and practice. (Working Paper No. WP/00/81). International Monetary Fund.
  • Checherita-Westphal, C., & Žďárek, V. (2017). Fiscal reaction function and fiscal fatigue: Evidence for the euro area. (ECB Working Paper, 2036). European Central Bank.
  • Chowdhury, A. R., & Murshed, S. M. (2016). Conflict and fiscal capacity. Defence and Peace Economics, 27(5), 583-608.
  • Chudik, A., & Pesaran, M. H. (2015). Common correlated effects estimation of heterogeneous dynamic panel data models with weakly exogenous regressors. Journal of Econometrics, 188(2), 393-420.
  • D'Erasmo, P., Mendoza, E. G., & Zhang, J. (2015). What is a sustainable public debt. (Working Paper No. No. 21574). Retrieved from http://www.nber.org/papers/ w21574
  • Dunne, J. P., Nikolaidou, E., & Chiminya, A. (2018). Military spending, conflict and external debt in sub-Saharan Africa. Defence and Peace Economics, 40(4), 462-473.
  • Eberhardt, M., & Presbitero, A. F. (2015). Public debt and growth: heterogeneity and non-linearity. Journal of International Economics, 97(1), 45-58.
  • Égert, B. (2012). Fiscal policy reaction to the cycle in the OECD: Pro-or counter-cyclical?. (CESifo Working Paper No. 3777). Center for Economic Studies. European Commission. (2011, September). Public Finances in EMU. European Economy, 3.
  • Everaert, G., & Jansen, S. (2018). On the estimation of panel fiscal reaction functions: Heterogeneity or fiscal fatigue?. Economic Modelling, 70, 87-96.
  • Fang, S. K., Kothari, C. M., McLoughlin, C., & Yenice, M. (2020). The economic consequences of the conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. (Working Paper No. WP/20/221). International Monetary Fund.
  • Fedelina, A., & Kudina, A. (2003). Fiscal sustainability in African HIPC countries: A policy dilemma?. (Working Paper No. WP/03/187). International Monetary Fund.
  • Ghosh, A. R., Kim, J. I., Mendoza, E. G., Ostry, J. D., & Qureshi, M. S. (2013). Fiscal fatigue, fiscal space and debt sustainability in advanced economies. The Economic Journal, 123, 4-30.
  • Ghosh, A. R., Ostry, J. D., & Qureshi, M. S. (2013). Fiscal space and sovereign risk pricing in a currency union. Journal of International Money and Finance, 34, 131-163.
  • Hayashi, F. (2000). Econometrics. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
  • IMF. (2015). Public debt vulnerabilities in low-income countries: The evolving landscape. Washington DC: International Monetary Fund.
  • IMF. (2017). Regional economic outlook. Sub-Saharan Africa: Fiscal adjustment and economic diversification. Washington DC: International Monetary Fund.
  • IMF. (2019). Regional economic outlook. Sub-Saharan Africa: Navigating uncertainty. Washington DC: International Monetary Fund.
  • Judson, R. A., & Owen, A. L. (1999). Estimating dynamic panel data models: A guide for macroeconomists. Economic Letters, 65, 9-15.
  • Kremers, J. J. M. (1989). U.S. Federal indebtedness and the conduct of fiscal policy. Journal of Monetary Economics, 23(2), 219-238.
  • Lledó, V., & Poplawski-Ribeiro, M. (2011). Fiscal policy implementation in sub-Saharan Africa. (Working Paper No. WP/11/172). International Monetary Fund.
  • Medeiros, J. (2012). Stochastic debt simulation using VAR models and a panel fiscal reaction function: Results for a selected number of countries. (Economic Papers No. 459). European Economy.
  • Mendoza, E. G., & Ostry, J. D. (2008). International evidence on fiscal solvency: Is fiscal policy responsible?. Journal of Monetary Economics, 55, 1081-1093.
  • Mupunga, N., & Ngundu, T. (2020). Escalating public debt levels and fiscal responses in sub-Saharan African countries. (Research Paper No. 385). Nairobi: African Economic Research Consortium.
  • Ncube, M., & Brixiová, Z. (2015). Public debt sustainability in Africa: Building resilience and challenges ahead. Development Policy Review, 33(5), 555-580.
  • Ndikumana, L. (2001). Fiscal policy, conflict, and reconstruction in Burundi and Rwanda. (Discussion Paper No. 2001/62). United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research.
  • Nickell, S. (1981). Biases in dynamic models with fixed effects. Econometrica, 49(6), 1417-1426.
  • Ogiji, P., & Ajayi, K. J. (2020). Estimating a fiscal reaction function for Nigeria. CBN Journal of Applied Statistics, 11(1), 35-63.
  • Plodt, M., & Reicher, C. (2014). Estimating simple fiscal policy reaction functions for the euro area countries. (Working Paper No. 1899). Kiel Institute of the World Economy.
  • Trehan, B., & Walsh, C. E. (1988). Common trends, the government's budget constraint, and revenue smoothing. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2- -3), 425-444.
  • Trehan, B., & Walsh, C. E. (1991). Testing intertemporal budget constraints: Theory and applications to the U.S. federal budget and current account deficits. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 23(2), 206-223.
  • Woo, J. (2003). Economic, political , and institutional determinants of public deficits. Journal of Public Economics, 87, 387-426.
  • World Bank. (2017, April). World Bank Africa's pulse. Washington DC: World Bank.
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikatory
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.ekon-element-000171628956

Zgłoszenie zostało wysłane

Zgłoszenie zostało wysłane

Musisz być zalogowany aby pisać komentarze.
JavaScript jest wyłączony w Twojej przeglądarce internetowej. Włącz go, a następnie odśwież stronę, aby móc w pełni z niej korzystać.