La situation demographique des Carpates au tournant des XXe et XXIe siecles

• Autorzy: Maria Soja

Warianty tytułu

Demographical Potential of Polish Carpathian Mts. at the Turn of the 20th and 21st Ccenturies

• Języki publikacji: FR

Abstrakty

EN

In the paper the author presents changes in the population of the Carpathian Mts. during 1978-98, that of the transition of Poland from the centrally controlled ("Communist") economy to market economy, against the general demographical condition of the country. The Polish Carpathian Mts. form a mountainous region in the south-eastern part of Poland, covering some 19500 km2, along the borders with the Czech Republic and Slovakia in the south and the Ukrainian border in the east. The demographical dynamics of the rural population in Poland showed the population number growth in all the regions of the country in the 50s, and the general decrease in the 70s. During the last decade of the 20th c., in western Poland the increase of the rural population number was observed, its continuous growth in the Carpathian Mts. - and the depopulation of the countryside in the eastern part. The discussed region displayed a positive demographical trend during the last 50 years (Fig. l). The Carpathian Mts., covering 6 percent of Poland's area, accounts for 11 percent of its rural population. Although the decrease of the rural population is typical for the contemporary stage of the socio-economic development, in the Carpathian Mts. the trend is reverse. The demographical growth of this region is mostly due to the high natural increase (Fig. 2). According to the three-stage model of the demographical transition, Poland is situated at the end of the 3rd stage while the Carpathian Mts. are close to this end. If one chooses the 4-stage model, the most often cited one (Holzer J.Z., 1999), Poland is near the 4th stage end, while the Carpathian Mts. are in its beginning (Fig. 3). It means that the demographical processes of the Carpathian Mts. are 10 years behind those for the whole nation - i.e. the natural increase rate of 4.5 percent was recorded in the Carpathian Mts. at the end of the 90s, while in Poland - in 1989. The scope of the demographical change in the rural zones of the Carpathian Mts. can be shown by the comparison of the 3-year average of the natural increase elements (Fig. 4). Their level fell considerably - that of a negative migration balance was decreased nearly 10 times, the natural increase rate - did hardly three times. The negative migration balance reduction was greater and faster than that of the natural increase. The smaller spatial mobility of the population is observed both in the Carpathian Mts. and in the whole of the country. The demographical changes caused by the socio-economic transition are different than those observed in Poland and in the Carpathian Mts. before. Their scale had not been predicted by demographers, who hoped that the total population number in Poland would amount to some 40 million, or - after adjustments - 38 min. in 2030 (Prognoza ludności... 2000). In West-European countries, such the changes were observed several decades ago - in Belgium, Germany or France, eg. in Auvergne. If one compares the demographical processes in both the regions, those of the Carpathian Mts. and Auvergne, one will notice the differences in the natural movement level and similar trends in the migrations during the last 30 years. Auvergne has been the immigrative region (Soja M., 1999), while in the Carpathian Mts., which were the area of the considerable outflow of the population, only the first immigrative zones can be found. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Demography; Demographic process; Demographic forecasts; Demographic transformation

PL

Demografia; Procesy demograficzne; Prognozy demograficzne; Przemiany demograficzne

• Czasopismo: Prace Geograficzne / Instytut Geografii i Gospodarki Przestrzennej Uniwersytetu Jagiellońskiego
• Rocznik: 2004
• Numer: z. 113 Les transformations du milieu montagnard-Carpates, Massif central et autres montagnes d'Europe
• Strony: 185--192

Twórcy

autor

Maria Soja

• Jagiellonian University in Krakow, Poland

Bibliografia

• Holzer J.Z., 1999, Demografia, Polskie Wydawnictwo Ekonomiczne, Warszawa, p. 371.
• Prognoza ludności Polski wg województw na lata 1999-2030, 2000, Departament Badań Demograficznych GUS, Warszawa, pp. 164.
• Soja M., 1991, La dépopulation des campagnes en Auvergne et dans les Carpates de Pologne, Développement régional en moyenne montagne Carpates - Massif central, CERAMAC, Clermont-Ferrand, p. 39-53.
• Soja M., 1996, Changement du peuplement des espaces ruraux en Pologne entre 1950 et 1993, Recherches de géographie humaine, Hommage au Professeur Charles Christians, ed. J-P.Donnay, C.Chevigné, Société Géographique de Liège, Liège, p. 143-148.
• Webb W., 1963, The Natural and Migrational Components of Population Charges in England and Wales 1921-1931, Economie Geography, 39, 2, p. 130-148.