Warianty tytułu
Wzrost PKB a nadwyżkowy popyt na pracę: czy grupa wyszehradzka jest gotowa na zwiększoną imigrację?
Języki publikacji
Abstrakty
Due to unprecedented economic growth after the EU accession, four post-communist economies: Czechia, Hungary, Poland, and Slovak Republic (Visegrad Group, V4) have suffered from unsaturated demand in their labour markets. However, while undergoing the transition from net emigration into net immigration countries, the V4 governments unleashed anti-immigrant propaganda, which seems to have fallen on fertile ground with their societies. The paper addresses the question of potential readiness of the Visegrad Group countries to accept increased immigration. To this end an analysis of post-war migration flows and immigrant populations was performed for each of the countries. To reveal correlations between migration flows and selected macroeconomic indicators, a time series analysis with time series regression model has been performed. No universal trends for the entire V4 group were revealed regarding correlation of macroeconomic indicators and migration flows. However, statistically significant correlations were found for Poland (where higher GDP growth and lower unemployment translated into increased immigration) and Slovak Republic (where higher FDI dynamics resulted in decreased emigration). It is also claimed that negative attitudes of V4 populations towards increased immigration are deteriorating with time, which might be challenging for their governments, especially in the light of growing demand on their labour markets. (original abstract)
Ze względu na bezprecedensowy wzrost gospodarczy po akcesji do UE w czterech krajach Grupy Wyszehradzkiej V4 (Czechach, Węgrzech, Polsce i Słowacji) zaobserwowano zjawisko nadwyżkowego popytu na pracę. Jednakże w retoryce rządów krajów tej grupy można zauważyć wyraźną niechęć do akceptacji zwiększonej imigracji, co wydaje się znajdować odzwierciedlenie w nastrojach społecznych. Artykuł podejmuje kwestię potencjalnej gotowości państw Grupy Wyszehradzkiej do przyjęcia większej liczby imigrantów. W tym celu przeprowadzono analizę strumieni migracyjnych, a także populacji imigrantów w każdym z tych krajów w okresie powojennym. W celu ujawnienia korelacji pomiędzy migracjami a wybranymi wskaźnikami makroekonomicznymi przeprowadzono analizę szeregów czasowych z wykorzystaniem modelu regresji. Analiza ta nie wykazała uniwersalnych zależności dla wszystkich państw grupy V4, jednak stwierdzono istotne statystycznie korelacje dla Polski (gdzie wzrost PKB i spadek bezrobocia mają wpływ na zwiększoną imigrację), a także Słowacji (gdzie napływ BIZ przekłada się na niższą emigrację). Stwierdzono również, że rosnąca niechęć mieszkańców państw V4 wobec zjawiska zwiększonej imigracji może stanowić wyzwanie dla rządów tych państw, zwłaszcza w świetle rosnącego zapotrzebowania na pracę. (abstrakt oryginalny)
Twórcy
autor
- Warsaw School of Economics (SGH)
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Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikatory
Identyfikator YADDA
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