Warianty tytułu
Technical Change in the Polish Labour Market in the Context of COVID-19 Pandemic
Języki publikacji
Abstrakty
Pandemia COVID-19 odcisnęła piętno na wielu obszarach życia - wpłynęła na sytuację na rynku pracy, zdynamizowała postęp techniczny, szczególnie w dziedzinach związanych z technologiami komunikacyjnymi i informacyjnymi i technologiami pokrewnymi (określanymi mianem technologii dysruptywnych). Artykuł podejmuje próbę identyfikacji rodzaju zmiany technologicznej na polskim rynku pracy oraz oceny wpływu pandemii COVID-19 na potencjalne zmiany jej trajektorii w kontekście koncepcji "końca pracy" Jeremy'ego Rifkina. Prowadzone w artykule rozważania bazują na analizie danych zastanych, przeglądzie literatury międzynarodowej, a także wynikach debaty eksperckiej. Z przeprowadzonych badań wynika, że procesy indukowane polaryzacją rynku pracy i pandemią COVID-19 nie powinny w perspektywie najbliższych lat doprowadzić do "końca pracy" i masowego bezrobocia technologicznego w Polsce. Równocześnie należy oczekiwać zmiany w strukturze zatrudnienia (w ujęciu zawodów, branż, a także grup zadań) w kierunku wzrostu znaczenia prac o charakterze nierutynowym, przy malejącej roli prac rutynowych, które będą zastępowane rozwiązaniami technologicznymi. Przekształceniom będą także ulegały formy świadczenia pracy - tradycyjne zatrudnienie pracownicze będzie wypierane "kontraktami o świadczenie usług pracy" zawieranymi coraz częściej z wykorzystaniem platform internetowych. (abstrakt oryginalny)
The COVID-19 pandemic has had impact on many areas of our life - it influenced the situation on the labour market, stimulated technical progress, especially in areas related to communication and information technologies and other related technologies (referred to as disruptive technologies). The paper aims to identify the type of technological change on the Polish labour market and to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on potential changes in the trajectory of this change in the context of J. Rifkin's concept of "end of work". The analysis is based on the available statistical data, a review of international literature, as well as the results of an expert debate. It is argued, that the processes induced by the polarisation of the labour market and the COVID-19 pandemic should not lead to the "end of work" and massive technological unemployment in Poland in the coming years. At the same time, a change in the employment structure (in terms of professions, industries and task-content groups) should be expected towards an increase in the importance of non-routine work, with a decreasing role of routine work, which will be replaced by technological solutions. The forms of provision of work will also be transformed - traditional contractual employment will be replaced by "contracts for the provision of labour services" concluded more and more frequently with the use of internet platforms. (original abstract)
Twórcy
autor
- Uniwersytet Łódzki
Bibliografia
- 1. Acemoglu, D., Restrepo, P., 2020. Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets. Journal of Political Economy, 128(6), pp. 2188-2244.
- 2. Adermon, A., Gustavsson, M., 2015. Job polarization and task-biased technological change: Evidence from Sweden, 1975-2005. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 117 (3), pp. 878-917.
- 3. Arendt, Ł., 2018. Is Polish Labour Market Heading Towards Polarisation?, Olsztyn Economic Journal, 13(3), pp. 309-322.
- 4. Arendt, Ł., Gałecka-Burdziak, E., Nunez, F., Pater, R., Usabiaga, C., 2021. Skills Requirements Across Task-Content Groups in Poland - What On-line Job Offers Tell Us?, maszynopis.
- 5. Arendt, Ł., Grabowski, W., 2019. Technical change and wage premium shifts among task-content groups in Poland. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 32 (1), pp. 3392-3410.
- 6. Asplund, R., Barth, E., Lundborg, P., Nilsen, K.M., 2011. Polarization of the Nordic labour markets. Finish Economic Papers, 24 (2), pp. 87-110.
- 7. Autor, D., Dorn, D., 2013. The growth of low-skill service jobs and the polarization of the US labor market. American Economic Review, 103 (5), pp. 1553-1597.
- 8. Autor, D., Levy, F., Murnane, R.J., 2003. The skill content of recent technological change: An empirical exploration. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118 (4), pp. 1279-1333.
- 9. Bank Światowy, 2016. World Development Report 2016. Digital Dividends, The World Bank Group, Washington D.C.
- 10. Bresnahan, T.F., Trajtenberg, M., 1995. General Purpose Technologies: "Engines of Growth"? Journal of Econometrics, 65, pp. 83-108.
- 11. Cortes, G.M., Jaimovich, N., Siu, H.E., 2017. Disappearing routine jobs: Who, how, and why?, Journal of Monetary Economics. 91 (C), pp. 69-87.
- 12. Dustmann, C., Ludsteck, J., Schonberg, U., 2009. Revisiting the German wage structure. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 124 (2), pp. 843-881.
- 13. Fonseca, T., Lima, F., Pereira, S.C., 2018. Job polarization, technological change and routinization: Evidence for Portugal. Labour Economics, 51 (C), pp. 317-339.
- 14. Frey, C.B., Osborne M.A., 2017. The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation? Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 114 (C), pp. 254-280.
- 15. Gajdos, A., Arendt, L., Balcerzak, A.P., Pietrzak, M.B., 2020.s Future Trends of Labour Market Polarisation in Poland. The Perspective of 2025. Transformations in Business & Economics, 19(3), pp.114-135.
- 16. Goos, M., Manning, A., 2007. Lousy and lovely jobs: The rising polarization of work in Britain. Review of Economics and Statistics, 89 (1), pp. 118-133.
- 17. Goos, M., Manning, A., Salomons, A., 2009. Job polarization in Europe. American Economic Review, 99 (2), pp. 58-63.
- 18. Goos, M., Manning, A., Salomons, A., 2014. Explaining job polarization: Routine-biased technological change and offshoring. American Economic Review, 104 (8), pp. 2509-2526.
- 19. Green, D., Sand, B., 2015. Has the Canadian labour market polarized? Canadian Journal of Economics, 48(2), pp. 612-646.
- 20. Hardy, W., Keister, R., Lewandowski, P., 2016. Technology or upskilling? Trends in the task composition of jobs in Central and Eastern Europe. IBS Working Paper No. 01/2016.
- 21. Hardy W., Keister R., Lewandowski, P., 2018. Educational upgrading, structural change and the task composition of jobs in Europe. Economics of Transition, 26 (2), pp. 201-231.
- 22. Jenkins C., Sherman B., 1979. The Collapse of Work, London: Eyre Methuen.
- 23. Jones B., 1982. Sleepers Wake! Technology and the Future of Work, Brighton: Wheatsheaf Books Ltd.
- 24. Kusideł, E., 2021. Wpływ zmian technologicznych na strukturę rynku pracy w Polsce i Europie, maszynopis.
- 25. Kwiatkowski, E., 2002. Bezrobocie. Podstawy teoretyczne, Warszawa: Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN.
- 26. Levy, F., Murnane, R.J., 2004. The New Division of Labor. How Computers are Creating the Next Job Market, Princeton and Oxford: Princeton University Press.
- 27. Masuda, Y., 1981. The Information Society as Post-Industrial Society, Washington D.C.: World Future Society.
- 28. McKinsey, and Company, 2018. Shoulder to shoulder with robots. Tapping the potential of automation in Poland, Report.
- 29. Michels, G., Natraj, A., van Reenen, J.V., 2014. Has ICT polarized skill demand? Evidence from eleven countries over 25 years. Review of Economics and Statistics, 96 (1), pp. 60-77.
- 30. Oesch, D., 2013. Occupational Change in Europe. How Technology and Education Transform the Job Structure, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
- 31. Parteka, A., 2018. Import Intensity of Production, Tasks and Wages: Micro-Level Evidence for Poland. Entrepreneurial Business and Economics Review, 6(2), pp. 71-89.
- 32. Piva, M., Vivarelli, M., 2017. Technological Change and Employment: Were Ricardo and Marx Right? IZA Discussion Paper No. 10471.
- 33. Ricardo D., 1957. Zasady ekonomii politycznej i opodatkowania, Warszawa: Państwowe Wydawnictwo Naukowe.
- 34. Rifkin, J., 2001. Koniec pracy, Wrocław: Wydawnictwo Dolnośląskie.
- 35. Rifkin, J., 2014. Społeczeństwo zerowych kosztów krańcowych, Studio Emka.
- 36. Vargas Llave, O., 2021. Telework, ICT-based mobile work in Europe: Trends, challenges and the right to disconnect. Dostępny w: https://www.eurofound.europa.eu/sites/default/files/presentation_virtual_emco_-_11_march_2021_-_oscar_vargas_llave.pdf
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikatory
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.ekon-element-000171631046