The EU Fiscal Risk Matrix - From Government Debt to Climate Liabilities

• Autorzy: Iustina Alina Boitan , Kamilla Marchewka-Bartkowiak
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The aim of the article is to identify the main components of government overall liabilities based on the Fiscal Risk Matrix classification introduced by the World Bank in 1999, and to estimate the amount and structure of these liabilities in European Union countries (EU Fiscal Risk Matrix). The climate liabilities definition and methodology included in the EU Fiscal Risk Matrix is also a novelty of the research. The study covered EU member states in the period 2018-2019, taking into account available data from the Eurostat database. On this basis, the EU Fiscal Risk Matrix was developed with the estimated structure of the burden of government liabilities for individual countries and the EU as a whole. The article used statistical and comparative analysis. The major conclusion of our research involves the proposal to implement a unified European methodology of government overall liabilities classification based on the EU Fiscal Risk Matrix to assess the fiscal debt burden and transparency of fiscal policy.(original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Matrix; Financial risk; Public debt; Fiscal policy; Climate

PL

Macierze; Ryzyko finansowe; Dług publiczny; Polityka fiskalna; Klimat

• Czasopismo: Studia BAS
• Rocznik: 2021
• Numer: nr 3 (67) Finanse Unii Europejskiej - nowe wyzwania
• Strony: 45--69

Twórcy

autor

Iustina Alina Boitan

• Bucharest University of Economic Studies

autor

Kamilla Marchewka-Bartkowiak

• Poznań University of Economics and Business

Bibliografia

• Balassone F., Franco D., Zotteri S., Public Debt: A Survey of Policy Issues, [in:] Public Debt, Banca d'Italia, 1 April 2004, https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2040728.
• Barro R.J., Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth, "Journal of Political Economy" 1990, Vol. 98, Issue 5.
• Blanchard O.J., Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons, "Journal of Political Economy" 1985, Vol. 93, Issue 2.
• Buchanan J.M., Public Principles of Public Debt: A Defense and Restatement, Liberty Fund, Indianapolis 1999.
• Climate Leadership Council, The Four Pillars of Our Carbon Dividends Plan, 2019, https://clcouncil.org/our-plan/.
• Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the European Council, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions - The European Green Deal (COM(2019) 640 final), 11 December 2019.
• Contingent liabilities and non-performing loans - statistics. Eurostat Statistics Explained, Eurostat 2021.
• Deboeck B., Eckefeldt P., Taking stock of implicit pension liabilities, "Quarterly Report on the Euro Area" 2020, Vol. 19, No. 2, European Commission, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs.
• Debrun X. et al., Tied to the mast? National fiscal rules in the European Union ('Constitutions, politics, and economics'), "Economic Policy" 2008, Vol. 23, Issue 54.
• DeWeerdt S., Researchers find new ways to calculate carbon prices and climate liability, "Anthropocene" 1 September 2020, https://www.anthropocenemagazine.org/2020/09/whos-responsible-for-carbon-emissions-and-how-can-we-put-a-price-on-their-costs-to-society/.
• Diamond P.A., National Debt in a Neoclassical Growth Model, "The American Economic Review" 1965, Vol. 55.
• Domar E.D., The "Burden of the Debt" and the National Income, "The American Economic Review" 1944, Vol. 34, No. 4.
• Elmendorf D.W., Mankiw N.G., Government Debt, "NBER Working Paper" 1998, No. 6470.
• European System of Accounts, ESA 2010, Eurostat, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg 2013.
• Ferrer J.N., Musmeci R., Beyond Public Debt. The Hidden Rapid Erosion of EU Government Balance Sheets is a Financial Threat to Society, "CEPS Research Report" March 2019, No. 10.
• Fiscal Policies for Paris Climate Strategies - from Principle to Practice, "IMF Policy Paper" 2019, Issue 010, International Monetary Fund, https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498311717.007.
• Fiscal Transparency Handbook, International Monetary Fund 2018, https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484331859.069.
• Girodet C. et al., New data collection on accrued-to-date social insurance pension entitlements in a national accounts context. Main findings, "OECD Statistics Working Papers" 2020, No. 5, https://doi.org/10.1787/93abd66a-en.
• High-Level Commission on Carbon Prices, Report of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Prices, The World Bank, Washington, DC 2017.
• Kaier K., Müller Ch., New figures on unfunded public pension entitlements across Europe: Concept, results and applications, "Diskussionsbeiträge" 2013, No. 52, Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg, Forschungszentrum Generationenverträge.
• Kane C., Palacios R., The Implicit Pension Debt, "Finance & Development" 1996, Vol. 33, Issue 2.
• Kaufman N. et al., A near-term to net zero alternative to the social cost of carbon for setting carbon prices, "Nature Climate Change" 2020, Vol. 10, Issue 11, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0880-3.
• Kharas H., Mishra D., Fiscal Policy, Hidden Deficits, and Currency Crises, [in:] World Bank Economists' Forum, Vol. 1, eds. S. Devarajan, F.H. Rogers, L. Squire, Washington, D.C. 2001.
• Kopits G., Coping with fiscal risk: Analysis and practice, "OECD Journal on Budgeting" 2014, Vol. 14, Issue 1, https://doi.org/10.1787/budget-14-5jxrgssdqnlt.
• Kopits G., Symansky S.A., Fiscal Policy Rules, "IMF Occasional Paper" 1998, No. 162.
• Laubach T., New Evidence on the Interest Rate Effects of Budget Deficits and Debt, "Journal of the European Economic Association" 2009, Vol. 7, Issue 4, https://doi.org/10.1162/jeea.2009.7.4.858.
• Lojsch D.H., Rodríguez-Vives M., Slavík M., The size and composition of government debt in the euro area, "European Central Bank Occasional Paper Series" 2011, No. 132.
• Mankiw N.G., The Savers-Spenders Theory of Fiscal Policy, "NBER Working Paper" 2000, No. 7571.
• Manual on Government Deficit and Debt: Implementation of ESA 2010, Eurostat 2019.
• Marchewka-Bartkowiak K., Dług potencjalny w świetle macierzy ryzyka fiskalnego, "Ekonomista" 2007, No. 6.
• Mitchell I., Robinson L., Tahmasebi A., Valuing Climate Liability, Center for Global Development, CGD Note, January 2021.
• Nordhaus W., The Climate Casino. Risk, Uncertainty, and Economics for a Warming World, Yale University Press 2015.
• OECD, Financial net worth of general government, [in:] Government at a Glance 2015, OECD Publishing, Paris 2015, https://doi.org/10.1787/gov_glance-2015-en.
• Oksanen H., Public Pensions in the National Accounts and Public Finance Targets, "European Economy, European Commission, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, Economic Papers" July 2004, No. 207.
• Polackova H., Contingent Government Liabilities: A Hidden Risk for Fiscal Stability, "Policy Research Working Papers", The World Bank, No. 1989, November 1999, https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-1989.
• Polackova H., Contingent Liabilities. A Threat to Fiscal Stability, "PREM Notes" 1998, No. 9, https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/11522.
• Polackova Brixi H., Mody A., Dealing with Government Fiscal Risk: An Overview, [in:] Government at Risk: Contingent Liabilities and Fiscal Risk, eds. H. Polackova Brixi, A. Schick, The World Bank and Oxford University Press 2002.
• Ponds E., Severinson C., Yermo J., Funding in Public Sector Pension Plans: International Evidence, "OECD Working Papers on Finance, Insurance and Private Pensions" 2011, No. 8, https://doi.org/10.1787/5kgcfnm8rgmp-en.
• Rauh J., Fiscal Implications of Pension Underfunding, paper prepared for the Annual Macroprudential Conference of Sveriges Riksbank, De Nederlandsche Bank, and Deutsche Bundesbank in Stockholm, 15-16 June 2018.
• Reinhart C.M., Rogoff K.S., Growth in a Time of Debt, "NBER Working Paper" 2010, No. 15639, https://doi.org/10.3386/w15639.
• Teles V.K., Mussolini C.C., Public debt and the limits of fiscal policy to increase economic growth, "European Economic Review" 2014, Vol. 66, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2013.11.003.
• Volz U. et al., Climate Change and Sovereign Risk, Centre for Sustainable Finance, SOAS University of London et al. 2020, https://eprints.soas.ac.uk/33524/1/Climate%20Change%20and%20Sovereign%20Risk_final.pdf.
• Warlenius R., Calculating Climate Debt. A Proposal, paper submitted to ISEE 2012, the 12th Biennial Conference of the International Society for Ecological Economics, 2012.
• The Works and Correspondence of David Ricardo, ed. P. Sraffa, Cambridge 1951.
• https://davidhume.org/texts/empl2/pc
• https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database
• https://stat.gov.pl/en/topics/national-accounts/accrued-to-date-pension-entitlements-in-social-insurance/estimating-accrued-to-date-pension-liabilities-adl-for-poland-in-2015-using-the-prost-model,2,1.html
• humesociety.org

Identyfikatory

DOI

https://doi.org/10.31268/StudiaBAS.2021.26