What Can SVAR Models Tell us About the Impact of Public Expenditure Shocks on Macroeconomic variables in Algeria? : A Slight Hint to the COVID-19 Pandemic

• Autorzy: Chellai Fatih
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Research background: Public spending is a generator of economic growth as well as its components; this reality is more depicted in the era of the COVID-19 world pandemic where a recession in economic activities has touched all countries. Purpose: In this paper, we tried to study the impact of shocks in public expenditure on some macroeconomic variables in Algeria during the period (1970-2019).Research methodology: The VAR Structural models were used to study the response of these variables to shocks in public spending in Algeria. Results: The results of the modeling indicate a direct response of both exports and imports to a shock in the levels of public expenditure, but this response is relatively weak to the variable value of exports (especially in the short term), which is mainly due to the structure of the Algerian economy that is mainly dependent on the export of oil and gas, which in turn is mainly affected by international energy factors e.g. prices, supply, and demand. For the rate of inflation, there was an inverse response to shocks in the level of public spending. In the context of the global health and economic crisis, we will witness a further faltering of economic growth in Algeria. Novelty: Our contribution is a new feature of the application of the SVAR model in the era of the COVID-19 pandemic that focused on analyzing the impacts of public expenditure on exports and imports.(original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Public expenditures; COVID-19; Structural models

PL

Wydatki publiczne; COVID-19; Modele strukturalne

• Czasopismo: Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia
• Rocznik: 2021
• Numer: vol. 21, iss. 2
• Strony: 21--37

Twórcy

autor

Chellai Fatih

• Ferhat Abbas University, Sétif, Algeria

Bibliografia

• Afonso, A., Gonçalves, L. (2020). The policy mix in the US and EMU: Evidence from a SVAR analysis. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 51, 100840. DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2018.08.023.
• Akpan, U.F., Atan, J.A. (2015). Macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy shock in Nigeria: A SVAR approach. International Journal of Business and Economic Research, 4 (3), 109-120. DOI: 10.11648/j.ijber.20150403.14.
• Amisano, G., Giannini, C. (1997). From var models to structural var models. In: Topics in Structural VAR Econometrics (pp. 1-28). Berlin-Heidelberg: Springer. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-60623-6_1.
• APS.2020. Finance Bill 2020: Reducing state expenditures by 20 percent. Retrieved from: https://www.aps.dz/ar/economie/77213-2020-20 (26.10.2020).
• Afonso, A., Leal, F.S. (2019). Fiscal multipliers in the Eurozone: an SVAR analysis. Applied Economics, 51 (51), 5577-5593. DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2019.1616068.
• Asandului, M., Lupu, D., Maha, L.G., Viorică, D. (2021). The asymmetric effects of fiscal policy on inflation and economic activity in post-communist European countries. Post-Communist Economies. DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2020.1867430.
• Bakar, N.A., Rosbi, S. (2020). Effect of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) to tourism industry. International Journal of Advanced Engineering Research and Science, 7 (4), 189-193.
• Bruneau, C., De Bandt, O. (2003). Monetary and fiscal policy in the transition to EMU: what do SVAR models tell us? Economic Modelling, 20 (5), 959-985. DOI: 10.1016/S0264-9993(02)00061-5.
• Fragetta, M., Melina, G. (2011). The effects of fiscal policy shocks in SVAR models: a graphical modelling approach. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 58 (4), 537-566.DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9485.2011.00558.x.
• De Castro Fernández, F., & Hernández de Cos, P. (2006). The economic effects of exogenous fiscal shocks in Spain: a SVAR approach (No. 647). ECB working paper.
• Deleidi, M., De Lipsis, V. (2018, June). Fiscal multipliers: a SVAR approach for the US. In STOREP 2018-Whatever Has Happened to Political Economy? Retrieved from: http://conference.storep.org/index.php?conference=storep-annual-conference&schedConf=2018&page=paper&op=view&path[]=368&path[]=19.
• Eviews-Help (2021). Retrieved from: http://www.eviews.com/help/helpintro.html

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.2478/foli-2021-0014