Effets de la stratégie de relance post-covid-19 de la BCEAO sur les agrégats économiques au Togo

• Autorzy: Segnon AGUEY , Yézidou ALI , Akoété Ega AGBODJI

Warianty tytułu

Effects of the BCEAO post-COVID-19 strategy on economic activities in Togo

• Języki publikacji: FR

Abstrakty

Les conséquences des mesures barrières anti COVID-19 ont été dommageables sur l'activité économique. Afin de stimuler la relance économique, la BCEAO propose une réduction de 20% de son taux directeur (2,5% à 2%). Notre étude propose une pré-évalua- tion des effets de cette politique monétaire sur les agrégats économiques au Togo. À partir d'un modèle DSGE intégrant les restrictions d'accès au crédit de l'informel, nous analysons les canaux de transmission de la baisse du taux directeur de la BCEAO jusqu'aux agrégats économiques. La réduction de 20% du taux directeur engendrerait une baisse du taux de base des banques commerciales de près de 3%, ce qui stimulera l'investissement pour un effet additionnel de 2% sur la croissance du PIB. Toutefois, la croissance sera essentiellement drai- née par le secteur formel, principal bénéficiaire du crédit additionnel. Le secteur informel en sera même négativement affecté, sous l'hypothèse de la substituabilité des facteurs entre les secteurs d'activité. On note une baisse de 0,9% de l'emploi informel et une réduction de 0,7% de la production informelle. La stratégie de relance de la BCEAO pourrait ainsi permettre aux États de la zone ouest-africaine d'initier un changement structurel pour un meilleur développement autre que celui à forte propension informelle.(abstrakt oryginalny)

EN

The consequences of the anti-COVID-19 barrier measures have been damaging to economic activity. In order to stimulate economic recovery, BCEAO is proposing a 20% reduction in its target rate (2.5% to 2%). Our study offers a pre-assessment of the effects of this monetary policy on economic aggregates in Togo. Using a DSGE model based on the restrictions of the informal sector on access to credit, we analyze the transmission channels of the cut in the BCEAO target rate to the economy. The 20% reduction in the target rate generates a drop in the lending rate for commercial banks about nearly 3%, which stimulates investment for an additional 2% effect on GDP growth. However, growth will be mainly drained by the formal sector, the main beneficiary of the additional credit. The informal sector will even be negatively affected, assuming the substitutability of factors between sectors of activity. There is a 0.9% drop in informal employment and a 0.7% reduction in informal production. The BCEAO's recovery strategy could allow the West African countries to initiate a structural change for a better development different from the strong informal propensity one.(original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Monetary policy; COVID-19; Economic activity

PL

Polityka pieniężna; COVID-19; Aktywność ekonomiczna

• Czasopismo: Revue Internationale des Economistes de Langue Française : revue de l'Association Internationale de Economistes de Langue Française avec la collaboration Université des Sciences Economiques et de Gestion
• Rocznik: 2021
• Tom: 6
• Numer: nr 2
• Strony: 183--215

Twórcy

autor

Segnon AGUEY

• Université de Lomé, Togo

autor

Yézidou ALI

• Université de Lomé, Togo

autor

Akoété Ega AGBODJI

• Université de Lomé, Togo

Bibliografia

• Ahmed, W. (2012). Pakistan economy DSGE model with informality: The empirics of calibration. (MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich).
• Ameganvi, K. (2018). Les déterminants de la demande de refinancement des banques auprès de la banque centrale. (Document d'étude et recherche No. 15/02).
• Asongu, S. (2014, January). Are proposed African monetary unions optimal currency areas? Real, monetary and fiscal policy convergence analysis. African Journal of Economic and Management Studies.
• Bandaogo, M. S. (2016). Fiscal and monetary policy in the presence of informality and the incentive to join a currency union. Seattle: Northeastern University.
• Bernanke, B., & Blinder, A. (1992, September). The federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission. American Economic Review.
• Bernanke, B. & Gertler, M. (1995). Inside the black box: The credit channel of monetary policy transmission. Journal of Economic Perspective, 9, 27-48.
• Bernanke, B., Gertler, M., & Gilchrist, S. (1994). The financial accelerator and the flight to quality. (NBER Working Paper 4789).
• Bhattarai, S., & Neely, J. (2016). An analysis of the literature on international Unconventional Monetary Policy. (FRB St. Louis Working Paper No. 2016-21).
• Boissieu, Ch. (2002). Les mécanismes de transmission de la politique monétaire dans une union économique et monétaire. (Symposium du quarantième anniversaire de la BCEAO, 43-52).
• Brooks, S. P., & Gelman, A. (1998). General methods for monitoring convergence of iterative simulations. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 7, 434-455.
• Ca' Zorzi, M., Dedola, L., Georgiadis, G., Jarociński, M., Stracca, L., & Strasser, G. (2020). Monetary policy and its transmission in a globalised world. (ECB Working Paper No. 20202407).
• Calvo, G. A. (1983). Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework. Journal of Monetary Economics, 12(3), 383-398.
• Cecchetti, S. G. (1995, May/June). Distinguishing theories of the monetary transmission mechanism. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 77, 83-97.
• Chandavarkar, A. G. (1971, March). Some aspects of interest rate policies in less developed economies: The experience of selected Asian countries. (IMF Staff Papers, 18(1), 48-112).
• Cushman, D. O., & Zha, T. (1995). Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates. (Working Paper No. 95-97). Atlanta: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
• Dembo Toé, M., & Hounpkatin, M. (2007). Lien entre la masse monétaire et l'inflation dans l'UEMOA. Dakar: BCEAO.
• Diagne, A., & Doucouré, F. B. (2001). Les canaux de transmission de la politique monétaire dans les pays de l'UEMOA. (Working Paper Consortium pour la recherche économique et sociale (CRES), Université Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar).
• Doe, L., & Diallo, M. L. (1997, December). Déterminants empiriques de l'inflation dans les pays de L'UEMOA. Notes d'Information et Statistiques, (476).
• Doe, L., & Diarrisso, S. (1998, April, May, June). De l'origine monétaire de l'inflation dans les pays de l'UEMOA. Notes d'Information et Statistiques, (480/481/482).
• Dornbusch, R. (1976). Expectations and exchange rate dynamics. Journal of Political Economy, 84(6), 1161-1176.
• Dowd, K. (2020, fall). The deficit myth: Modern monetary theory and the birth of the people's economy. Cato Journal.
• Friedman, M. (1968, March). The role of monetary policy. American Economic Review, 58(1), 1-17.
• Gali, J. (2008). Monetary policy, inflation, and the business cycle. An introduction to the new Keynesian framework and its monetary policy applications. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
• Gali, J., & Monacelli, T. (2005). Monetary policy and exchange rate volatility in a small open economy. The Review of Economic Studies, 72(3), 707-734.
• Gilchrist, S., & Saito, M. (2006). Expectations, asset prices, and monetary policy: The role of learning. (NBER Working Paper No. 12442).
• Gonzàlez, A., Terasvirta, T., & Van Dijk, D. (2005). Panel smooth transition regression models. (Working Papers No. 604). Stockholm School of Economics. Government Finance Statistics.
• Goodhart, C., & Jensen, M. (2015). Currency school versus banking school: An ongoing confrontation. Economic Thought, 4(2), 20-23.
• Grilli, V., & Roubini, N. (1995). Liquidity models in open economies: Theory and empirical evidence. (Working Papers No. 96-16). New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business.
• Han, X., & Wei, S.-J. (2018). International transmissions of monetary shocks: Between a trilemma and a dilemma. Journal of International Economics, 110, 205-219.
• INSEED. (2015). Enquête QUIBB: élaboration du profil de la pauvreté au Togo. Lome: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Economiques et Démographiques.
• Jarociński, M., & Peter, K. (2020). Deconstructing monetary policy surprises-the role of information shocks. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 12(2), 1-43.
• Kashyap, A. K., Stein, J. C., & Wilcox, D. W. (1993). Monetary policy and credit conditions: Evidence from the composition of external finance. American Economic Review, 83(1), 78.
• Kronborg, A. (2016). Forecasting using a DSGE model with a fixed exchange rate. Methods and Applications to DSGE Models. Copenhagen: Institut for Økonomi, Aarhus Universitet.
• Lahcen, M. (2014). DSGE models for developing economies: An application to Morocco. (MPRA Paper No. 63404). Lausanne: University of Lausanne.
• Mankiw, N. G. (2020). A skeptic's guide to modern monetary theory. (NBER Working Paper No. 26650).
• McKinnon, R. I. (1973). Money and capital in economic development. Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution.
• Milani, F., & Treadwell, J. (2012). Effect of monetary policy "news" and "surprises". Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 44(8), 1667-1692.
• Miranda-Agrippino, S., Nenova, T., & Rey, H. (2020). Global footprints of monetary policy. (Discussion Papers 2004, Centre for Macroeconomics).
• Miranda-Agrippino, S., & Rey, H. (2020, November). U.S. monetary policy and the global financial cycle. The Review of Economic Studies, 87(6), 2754-2776.
• Mishra, P., Spilimbergo, A., & Montiel, P. (2012). Monetary transmission in low-income countries: Effectiveness and policy implications. (IMF Working Papers No. 223).
• Mitchell, W., Randall Wray, L., & Watts, M. (2019). Macroeconomics. London: Red Globe Press.
• Mundell, R. (1962, March). The appropriate use of monetary and fiscal policy for internal and external stability. (Staff Papers No. 9, 70-76).
• Murphy, R. (2020). Book review. The deficit of myth: Modern monetary theory and the birth of the people's economy, Stephanie Kelton. Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics, 23(2), 232-251.
• Newman, P. (2020). Modern monetary theory: An Austrian interpretation of recrudescent Keynesianism. Atlantic Economic Journal, 48, 23-31.
• Nubukpo, K. K. (2002). L'impact de la variation des taux d'intérêt directeurs de la BCEAO sur l'inflation et la croissance dans l'UMOA. Notes d'Information et Statistiques de la BCEAO, 526.
• Ogunjimi, S.O. (1997). Public finance for polytechnics ICAN students. Bida: Lekem Productions.
• Palley, T. (2015). The critics of modern monetary theory (MMT) are right. Review of Political Economy, 27(1), 45-61.
• Robinson, J. (1965). Kalecki and Keynes. In J. Robinson (Ed.), Collected Economic Papers (vol. 3, pp. 92-99). Oxford: Basil Blackwell.
• Sall, A. K. (2020, June 27). Quel objectif d'inflation pour l'Union Monétaire Ouest Africaine (UMOA). Revue Économique et Monétaire.
• Samake, I. (2010). A macro model of the credit channel in currency union member: The case of Benin. (IMF Working Paper No. 191).
• Skousen, M. (2020). There's much ruin in a nation: An analysis of modern monetary theory. Atlantic Economic Journal, 48, 11-21.
• Stiglitz, J. E., & Weiss, A. (1981). Credit rationing in markets with imperfect information. The American Economic Review, 71(3), 93-410.
• Summers, L. H. (2020). Recette pour un désastre. La gauche et la théorie monétaire moderne. Commentaire, 71(3), 672-674.
• Tahavieva, F. R., & Nigmatullina, I. A. (2017). Speech-communicative function in the structure of predictive competence of young schoolchildren with musculoskeletal disorders. Astra Salvensis, Supplement, 10, 315-322.
• Tanzi, V. (1978). Inflation, real tax revenue, and the case for inflationary finance: Theory with an application to Argentina. (IMF Staff Papers No. 25, 417-451).
• Walsh, C. A. (2003). Accountability, transparency, and inflation targeting. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 35(5), 829-849.

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.18559/RIELF.2021.2.9