Multiplication of Air Accidents Frequency and Hazard Desirability Coefficients for ICAO Safety Risk Tolerability Matrix Solution

• Autorzy: Sergii Pavlovich Borsuk , Oeksiy Reva , Volodymyr Kharchenko,
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Using mathematical method of priorities arrangement, also known as problem "about leader", air accidents frequency and hazard desirability coefficients were found. Those coefficients are proposed by ICAO for safety risk tolerability matrix solution. Integral index of mentioned parameters combinations hazard is found with help of Harrington desirability function. Risk levels determination index is introduced for researched matrix.(original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Aviation; Plane accidents; Mathematical forecasting; Risk; Risk analysis

PL

Lotnictwo; Wypadki lotnicze; Prognozowanie matematyczne; Ryzyko; Analiza ryzyka

• Czasopismo: Logistyka i Transport
• Rocznik: 2015
• Tom: 25
• Strony: 63--70

Twórcy

autor

Sergii Pavlovich Borsuk

• National Aviation University, Ukraine

autor

Oeksiy Reva

• National Aviation University, Ukraine

autor

Volodymyr Kharchenko,

• National Aviation University Kiev, Ukraine

Bibliografia

• Global aviation safety plan, Montreal, Canada, June 2009.
• Reva А. N., Human factor and flight safety: (Research of proactive influence): monograph, [in:] Reva A. N., Tymishev K. M., Bekmuhmambetov A. A. scientific editorship А. N. Reva, К. М. Tymishev, Almati 2006.
• Kharchenko V.P. Solution taking by air-navigation system operator: mohograph / V.P. Kharchenko, T.F. Shmeluova, Y.V. Skirda. - Kirovograd: KFA NAU, Kyjiv 2012.
• ICAO: Safety Management Manual (SMM): Doc. ICAO 9859 - AN / 474. - Montreal, Canada, 2009.
• Fomenko Y. М., Risk triangle in system analysis of ait traffic controllers professional activity, [in:] Fomenko Y. M. (ed.), Problems of informatization and control: scientific digest, Ministry of science and education of Ukraine, National Aviation University, Kyjiv 2006, vol. 3, pp. 147-151.
• Reva О. M., Proactive risk management on basis of human factor in civil aviation, [in:] Reva O. M., Osadchiy S. I., Medvedenko O. M., Fomenko Y. M. (ed.), Railroad transport of Ukraine: theoretical and practical magazine, Kyjiv 2008, vol. 6, pp. 54-59.
• Zadeh L., The concept of a linguistic variable and its application to approximate reasoning, N. I. Ringo / K. Zadeh; editorship. N. N. Moiseeva, S. A. Orlovskogo. - М. : Mir, 1976.
• Kaufman А., Introduction into fuzzy set theory: translated for French. V. B. Kuzmina/ А. Kaufman; editorship. S. I. Travkina. - М.: Radio and communications, 1982.
• Polojenets G. A., Exploitation factors in-fluence on the flight safety taking into account their interaction [Manuscript]: summary, PhD thesis. 05.22.20, National aviation university. - K.: NVF Slavutich-Delphi, 2013. - 20 p.
• ICAO: Threat and Error Management (TEM) in Air Traffic Control : Cir. ICAO 314 - AN / 178. - Montreal, Canada, 2008.
• Introduction to Safety Management Systems for Air Operators [Text]: Advisory Circular No 120-92, FAA USA, 2006.
• Sharov V. D., About some mathematical and logical restrictions for risk matrices appliance in the flight safety management system, "Scientific Bulletin of MGTU GA. Air Transport Exploitation Series", 149 (2009), pp. 179-181.
• Mushik E., Technical solutions accep-tance methods, Mir, 1990.
• Cox L., What's Wrong with Risk Matrices?, "Risk Analyses", 28 (2008)/2, p. 497-512.
• Levashov S. P., Professional risk expert estimation method, "Lifeware Safety: Scientifically-Practical and Educationally-Methodical Magazine, 97 (2009)/1, pp. 14-16.
• Adler Y. P., Experiment planning while searching for optimal conditions [Text] / Y.P. Adler, E.V. Markova, Y.V. Granovskiy. - М.: Nauka, 1976.
• Reva O. M., Estimation scales point fuzzyfication/defuzzyfication procedure, "Electronics and Control Systems: Scientific Magazine", 33 (2012)/3, pp. 53-62.
• Berj К., Graph theory and its appliance, М.: IL, 1962.
• Bloomberg V. А., Which solution is better? Priorities rearrangement method [Text] / V.А. Bloomberg, V.F. Glushchenko. - L.: Lenizdat, 1982.
• Reva A. N., Urgent area of ICAO "risk triangle" solution proactive models development, [in:] Reva A. N., Vdovichenko V. I., Borsuk S. P. et al. (edd.), Modern transport power-plants, technologies and maintenance equipment: 4-th Ukrainian theoretical and practical conference, Kherson, 9-11 october 2013, HDMA, Kherson 2013, pp. 334-338.
• Chinchenko Y. V., Risks and threats es-timation on the air traffic controllers workplace with help of fuzzy sets, "National Aviation University Bulletin: Scientific Magazine", (2011)/2, pp. 44-49.
• Dubois D., Fuzzy sets and systems - Theory and applications. / D. Dubois, H. Prade; Academic press, New York, 1980.
• Reva О. М., Fuzzy model of air traffic controller attitude to risk of potentially conflict situation happening, "Airspace Technique and Technology: Theoretical Practical Magazine", 107 (2013)/10, pp. 214-221.
• Reva О. М., Air traffic controllers preten-sion level with workload parameters, "Airspace Technique and Technology: Theoretical Practical Magazine", 105 (2013)/8, pp. 273-281.