Connections between the Dry Bulk Freight Index and the Cyclical Economic Activity of the G7 Countries

• Autorzy: Natalia Wagner
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The article analyses the connections between the dry bulk freight market and the economic activity of certain countries. The objective was to confirm the existence of a similar cyclical nature for the Baltic Dry Index and main indicators of the business cycle of the G7 countries. The applied macroeconomic variables were: the real GDP and the industrial production index. In examination a spectral analysis was used. The discovered identical periodicities were analyzed in terms of time relations. It was demonstrated, that the cyclical part of the BDI (periodicity of 13.1 and 15.3 quarters) either leads or is coincident with the indicators of the business cycle. The global financial crisis in 2008-2009 showed that the behaviour of freight indices was similar to stock exchange indices and macroeconomic variables in advanced economies. It is worth to observe shipping market because higher values of freight indices could anticipate increasing demand for sea trade and economic growth.(original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Freight forwarding; Business cycles; Spectral analysis

PL

Spedycja; Cykl koniunkturalny; Analiza widmowa

• Czasopismo: Logistyka i Transport
• Rocznik: 2015
• Tom: 25
• Strony: 71--82

Twórcy

autor

Natalia Wagner

• Maritime Academy in Szczecin, Poland

Bibliografia

• Antonakakis N., Scharler J., The synchronization of GDP growth in the G7 during US recessions, "Applied Economics Letters", 19 (2012), pp. 7-11.
• Aruoba S. B., Diebold F. X., Kose A. M., Terrones M. E., Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring, NBER Working Paper