The Impact of Macroeconomic Indicators on the Share Prices of Dividend Companies - A Comparative Analysis of Polish and US Issuers for the Period 2016-2020

• Autorzy: Bartłomiej Jabłoński , Dorota Kika
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Research background: The aim of the article is to compare Polish and US dividend companies with potential growth with dividend companies with potential value, including in the period of economic turbulence caused by the pandemic, and to identify macroeconomic determinants that affect changes in the level of share prices of dividend companies with potential value listed on the stock exchange in Poland and the US. An analysis of the literature and international studies conducted allows us to identify inflation, gross domestic product (GDP), interest rate levels, exchange rate changes, and market P/E and P/BV ratios, as well as the PMI index, as the most important macroeconomic factors. Purpose: The aim of the article was to present research on the impact of macroeconomic indicators on the prices of Polish and US shares of dividend companies, divided into shares with potential value and potential growth for the period 2016-2020. The research was enriched by analyzing the return rate on shares and the risk of the share prices of companies with potential value during the turbulence of the economy caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Research methodology: The study was conducted using the Spearman rank correlation coefficient and significance test for the Spearman rank correlation coefficient. A non-parametric t-test was carried out to check whether the estimated correlation is statistically significant. Results: The research indicates that Polish and US dividend companies with potential value have lower average annual return rates than dividend companies with potential growth. Referring to the determinants of the share prices of US dividend companies with potential value, it was found that they are significantly determined by inflation and moderately determined by industrial production and GDP, as well as the P/BV ratio. Novelty:The added and application value are the recommendations regarding the attractiveness of investing in Polish dividend companies with potential value as compared to companies from the US market. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Macroeconomic indicators; Investment portfolio; Comparative analysis; Rate of return; Stock market companies; Pandemic; COVID-19

PL

Wskaźniki makroekonomiczne; Portfel inwestycyjny; Analiza porównawcza; Stopa zwrotu; Spółki giełdowe; Pandemia; COVID-19

• Czasopismo: Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia
• Rocznik: 2022
• Numer: vol. 22, iss. 2
• Strony: 78--96

Twórcy

autor

Bartłomiej Jabłoński

• University of Economics in Katowice, Poland

autor

Dorota Kika

• University of Economics in Katowice, Poland

Bibliografia

• Akani, H.W., Sweneme, Y. (2017). Macroeconomic Aggregates and Retention Ratio of Quoted Firms in Nigeria. Asian Finance & Banking Review, 1 (1), 55-63.
• Al-Malkawi, H.A.N. (2008). Factors Influencing Corporate Dividend Decision: Evidence from Jordanian Panel Data. International Journal of Business, 13 (2).
• Asquith, P., Mullins, Jr D.W. (1983). The Impact of Initiating Dividend Payment on Shareholders' Wealth. Journal of Business, 56 (1), 77-96. DOI: 10.1086/296187.
• Baker, M., Wurgler, J. (2004). Appearing and disappearing dividends: The link to catering incentives. Journal of Financial Economics, 73 (2), 271-288. DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2003.08.001.
• Basse, T., Reddemann, S. (2011). Inflation and the Dividend Policy of US Firms. Economy watch, 6 (4), 33-64.
• Brigham, E.F., Houston, J.F. (2005). Podstawy zarządzania finansami. Warszawa: PWE.
• DeAngelo, H., DeAngelo, L., Stulz, R.M. (2006). Dividend policy and the earned/contributed capital mix: a test of the life-cycle theory. Journal of Financial Economics, 81 (2), 227-254. DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2005.07.005.
• Dębski, W., Bujnowicz, I. (2008). Model współzależności rozwoju systemu finansowego i wzrostu gospodarczego w Polsce. Studia i Prace Wydziału Nauk Ekonomicznych i Zarządzania Uniwersytetu Szczecińskiego, 9, 9-20.
• Fama, E.F. (1981). Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money. The American Economic Review, 71 (4), 545-565.
• Fama, E.F., French, K.R. (1992). The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns. The Journal of Finance, 47 (2), 427-465. DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1992.tb04398.x.
• Fuller, K.P., Goldstein, M.A. (2011). Do Dividends Matter More in Declining Markets? Journal of Corporate Finance, 17 (3), 457-473.
• Giri, A.K., Pooja, J. (2017). The Impact of Macroeconomic Indicators on Indian Stock Prices: An Empirical Analysis. Studies in Business and Economics, 12 (1), 61-78. DOI: 10.1515/sbe-2017-0005.
• Haugen, R.A. (1999). Nowa nauka o finansach. Przeciw efektywności rynku. Warszawa: WIG-Press.
• Hazlitt, H. (2007). Inflacja, wróg publiczny nr 1. Warszawa: Fijorr Publishing.
• Khan, J., Khan, I. (2018). The Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Prices: A Case Study of Karachi Stock Exchange. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 9 (13), 15-25.
• Kowerski, M. (2011). Ekonomiczne uwarunkowania decyzji o wypłatach dywidend przez spółki publiczne. Kraków-Rzeszów-Zamość: Konsorcjum Akademickie Wydawnictwo WSE w Krakowie, WSIiZ w Rzeszowie i WSZiA w Zamościu.
• Lee, T. (2000). Ekonomia dla inwestorów giełdowych. Warszawa: WIG-Press.
• Lichtenfeld, M. (2015). Get Rich with Dividends. New Jersey: John Wiley&Sons.
• Megaravalli, A.V., Sampagnaro G. (2018). Macroeconomic indicators and their impact on stock markets in ASIAN 3: A pooled mean group approach. Cogent Economics & Finance, 6 (1), 1-14. DOI: 10.1080/23322039.2018.1432450.
• Modigliani, F., Cohn, R.A. (1979). Inflation, Rational Valuation and the Market. Financial Analysts Journal, 35 (2), 22-44. DOI: 10.2469/faj.v35.n2.24.
• Muhammad, A.A., Khan, F. (2018). The Relationship between Macroeconomic Variables and the Dividend Payout Ratio of the Textile Sector Listed on Pakistan Stock Market. Sarhad Journal of Management Sciences (SJMS), 4 (1), 111-121.
• Naik, P.K., Padhi, P. (2012). The Impact of Macroeconomic Fundamentals on Stock Prices Revisited: Evidence from Indian Data. Eurasian Journal of Business and Economics, 5 (10), 25-44.
• Romus, M., Rizga, A., Abdillah, M.R., Zakaria, N.B. (2020). Selected Firms Environmental Variables: Macroeconomic Variables, Performance and Dividend Policy Analysis. IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 469, 1-6. DOI: 10.1088/1755-1315/469/1/012047.
• Rubin, H. Spaht, II C. (2011). Financial Independence Through Dollar Cost Averaging and Dividends Reinvestment. Journal of Applied Business and Economics, 12 (4), 11-19.
• Skousen, M. (2011). Struktura produkcji. Giełda, kapitał, konsumpcja. Warszawa: Fijorr Publishing Company.
• Skousen, M. (2011b). Inwestowanie w jednej lekcji. Warszawa: Fijorr Publishing Company.
• Tuzimek, R. (2013). Decyzje finansowe w spółkach giełdowych a wartość akcji. Warszawa: Oficyna Wydawnicza Szkoły Głównej Handlowej.
• Williams, A., Miller, M. (2013). Do Stocks with Dividends Outperform the Market during Recession. Journal of Accounting and Finance, 13 (1), 58-69.

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.2478/foli-2022-0020