Dependence of Housing Real Estate Prices on Inflation as One of the Most Important Factors : Poland's Case

• Autorzy: Oleksandr Melnychenko , Tetiana Osadcha , Anatoliy Kovalyov , Valerii Matskul
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The study aimed to examine the impact of inflation on the real estate market using Polish panel data for the last 13 years. It is based on a panel model, where price changes of one square meter of housing are determined as a function in changes of inflation, the central bank's base rate, dwellings built, as well as new mortgage loans. The quarterly dynamics of the average price of 1 square meter of housing in Poland's eight largest cities in the 2009-2021 period was studied. This price was modeled and predicted using one of the Box-Jenkins time series models: the Holt-Winter model of exponential smoothing with a damped trend. The forecasting results showed a small (up to 4%) relative error in comparison with the actual data. In addition, the moment (2017) of the price trend change was found. Therefore, piecewise linear regressions with high regression coefficients were used when modeling the impact of inflation changes on the real estate market indicators under consideration. The results obtained provide valuable insight into the relationship of real estate market indicators, allowing consumers to predict available options and make decisions in accordance with their preferences. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Real estate; Housing; Inflation

PL

Nieruchomości; Mieszkalnictwo; Inflacja

• Czasopismo: Real Estate Management and Valuation
• Rocznik: 2022
• Numer: vol. 30, iss. 4
• Strony: 25--41

Twórcy

autor

Oleksandr Melnychenko

• Gdansk University of Technology

autor

Tetiana Osadcha

• Odesa Mechnikov National University, Ukraine

autor

Anatoliy Kovalyov

• Odessa State Economic University, Ukraine

autor

Valerii Matskul

• Odessa National Economic University, Ukraine

Bibliografia

• Abildgren K., Kuchler A., 2021,Revisiting the inflation perception conundrum, Journal of Abildgren, K., & Kuchler, A. (2021). Revisiting the inflation perception conundrum. Journal of Macroeconomics, 67, 103264. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2020.103264
• Aizenman J., & Jinjarak Y. (2009). Current account patterns and national real estate markets. Journal of Urban Economics, 66(2), 75-89.
• Ali, S. & Anwars, Z. (2013). Inflation and interest rates in the presence of a cost channel, wealth effect and agent heterogeneity. Economic Modelling, 31, 286-296. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.11.022
• AMRON. (2022). Ogólnopolski raport o kredytach mieszkaniowych i cenach transakcyjnych nieruchomości [Nation wide report on housing loans and real estate transaction prices]. Retrieved 21.01.2022 from https://www.amron.pl/strona.php?tytul=raporty-amron-sarfin

Identyfikatory

DOI

doi.org/10.2478/remav-2022-0027