Economic and Financial Consequences of War in Ukraine: Analysis of Development Scenarios

• Autorzy: Marianna Bida , Iryna Ruda
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The war affects the socio-economic state of Ukraine and is the cause of the deterioration of the economic situation of neighboring countries. Under such conditions, there is a need to carry out assessments of economic losses from the conduct of military operations and forecast the main economic indicators for the nearest period, taking into account the impact of the war. The pur-pose of the study is to calculate the losses to the economy, the destruction of residential facili-ties and critical infrastructure facilities in the first 100 days of the war, the assessment of the potential volume of the fall in GDP and the calculation of projected fiscal losses. The calculation of GDP reduction was based on the forecasts of the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank Group and the Government of Ukraine. The expected amount of GDP reduction is calculat-ed using the GAP-analysis method, based on the forecasts made by these institutions in the pre-war period, and the calculation of the level of GDP during the war. Based on the results of the conducted research, it was established that the economic losses from the war consist not only of the losses incurred and the reduction of GDP volumes, but also of the lost opportunities for de-velopment and unearned profits. In addition to the reduction in GDP, Ukraine's losses are mani-fested in the increase in the level of public debt, the depreciation of the national currency, the reduction of gold and currency reserves, and the outflow of foreign direct investments. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Economic losses; Armed conflicts; Gross domestic product (GDP); Social and economic conditions

PL

Straty gospodarcze; Konflikty zbrojne; Produkt krajowy brutto (PKB); Sytuacja społeczno-ekonomiczna

• Czasopismo: e-Finanse
• Rocznik: 2022
• Tom: 18
• Numer: nr 3
• Strony: 88--101

Twórcy

autor

Marianna Bida

• Ivan Franko National University of Lviv

autor

Iryna Ruda

• Ivan Franko National University of Lviv

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Identyfikatory

DOI

10.2478/fiqf-2022-0022