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2022 | z. 160 Modernity of Industry and Sciences = Nowoczesność przemysłu i nauki | 83--93
Tytuł artykułu

The Impact of External Debt on Poland's Economic Growth

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Języki publikacji
EN
Abstrakty
EN
Purpose: The primary purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between external debt and economic growth in Poland for the period 2004-2021. Design/Methodology/Approach: The study uses quarterly, secondary data spanning from 2004 to 2021. The data gathered in the research were analysed using the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and backward stepwise regression model. Findings: The empirical results of research show that relationship between changes in ratio of external debt stock to GDP and economic growth is positive but not significant in period 2004-2021. This suggest that foreign borrowing minimally contributes to economic expansion of Poland. Furthermore, the results for the control variables indicate that trade openness and investment have a positive and significant effect on economic growth, whereas financial development and inflation negative. Practical Implications: Understanding variables that influence countries' economic growth is essential for designing appropriate economic policies, including debt management strategy. The research results can be used to formulate debt management strategy, which helps to minimalize risk connected with foreign borrowing. Poland should decrease dependence on external debt and increase reliance on domestic savings and other non-debt creating inflows. In addition, the results of study provide a reasonable basis for further research on the influence of the foreign debt' composition on economic expansion of the country. Originality/Value: The nexus external debt-economic growth is widely debated by researchers, however until now, little research has been done about this relationship in Poland.(original abstract)
Twórcy
autor
  • University of Szczecin
Bibliografia
  • 1. Al Kharusi, S., Ada, M. (2018). External Debt and Economic Growth: The Case of Emerging Economy. Journal of Economic Integration, Vol. 33, No. 1, pp. 1141-1157, http://dx.doi.org/10.11130/jei.2018.33.1.1141.
  • 2. Ciftcioglu, S., Sokhanvar, A. (2018). External debt-economic growth nexus in selected CEE countries. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, Vol. 21, pp. 85-100. Retrieved from https://ipe.ro/rjef/rjef4_18/rjef4_2018p85-100.pdf, 20.05.2022.
  • 3. Dey, S., Tareque, M. (2019). External debt and growth: role of stable macroeconomic policies. Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, Vol. 25, No. 50, pp. 185-204, DOI 10.1108/JEFAS-05-2019-0069.
  • 4. Gros, D. (2011). External versus domestic debt in the euro crisis. CEPS Policy Brief, No. 243. Retrieved from https ://ssrn.com/abstr act=18986 56, 14.06.2022.
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  • 7. Keller, W., Yeaple, S.R. (2009). Multinational enterprises, international trade, and productivity growth: firm-level evidence from the United States. The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 91, Iss.4, pp. 821-831.
  • 8. Khan, M., Senhadji, A. (2009). Financial Development and Economic Growth: An Overview. IMF Working Papers, No. 209, DOI:10.5089/9781451874747.001.
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  • 10. Mohd, N., Halim, A., Azman-Saini, W.N.W. (2013). Does External Debt Contribute to Malaysia Economic Growth? Ekonomska istraživanja - Economic Research, Vol. 26, Iss. 2, pp. 346-363. Retrieved from https://hrcak.srce.hr/file/152934, 23.03.2022.
  • 11. Ogunmuyiwa, M.S. (2011). Does External Debt Promote Economic Growth in Nigeria? Current Research Journal of Economic Theory, Vol. 3, No. 1, pp. 29-35.
  • 12. Pattillo, C., Poirson, H., Ricci, L. (2004). What Are the Channels through Which External Debt Affects Growth? International Monetary Fund Working Paper, No. 15. Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2004/wp0415.pdf, 07.04.2022.
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  • 14. Presbitero, A. (2012). Total Public Debt and Growth in Developing Countries European. Journal of Development Research, Vol. 24, No. 4, pp.606-626.
  • 15. Safwat, A., Salah, A., El Sherif, M. (2021). The Impact of Total Foreign Debt on the Economic Growth of Egypt (1980-2018). Open Journal of Social Sciences, Vol. 9, pp. 130-151, https://doi.org/10.4236/jss.2021.910010.
  • 16. Sen, S., Kasibhatla, K., Stewart, D. (2007). Debt overhang and economic growth-the Asian and the Latin American experiences. Economic Systems, Vol. 31, pp. 3-11, doi:10.1016/j.ecosys.2006.12.002.
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  • 18. Shah, A., Masih, M. (2018). The determinants of economic growth: the Malaysian case. MPRA Paper, No. 107859. Retrieved from https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/107859/, 28.04.2022
  • 19. Silva, J. (2020). Impact of public and private sector external debt on economic growth: The case of Portugal. Eurasian Economic Review, Vol. 10, pp. 607-34, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40822-020-00153-2.
  • 20. Soydan, A., Bedir, S. (2015). External Debt and Economic Growth: New Evidence for an Old Debate. Journal of Business, Economics & Finance, Vol. 4, No. 3, pp.500-522, DOI: 10.17261/Pressacademia.2015313068.
  • 21. Stungwa, S. (2022). Empirical modeling of South Africa's external debt on economic growth (1994-2020): NARDL Cointegration approach. MPRA Paper, No. 112527. Retrieved from https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/112527/, 23.03.2022.
  • 22. Švigir, M., Miloš, J. (2017). Relationship between Inflation and Economic Growth; Comparative Experience of Italy and Austria. Financije i Pravo, Vol. 5, pp. 91-101.
  • 23. Svirydzenka, K. (2016). Introducing a New Broad-based Index of Financial Development. International Monetary Fund Working Paper, No. 5. Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2016/wp1605.pdf, 27.05.2022.
  • 24. Wang, R., Xue, Y., Zheng, W. (2021). Does high external debt predict lower economic growth? Role of sovereign spreads and institutional quality. Economic Modelling, Vol. 103, DOI: 10.1016/J.ECONMOD.2021.105591.
  • 25. Wen, J., Mahmood, H., Khalid, S. & Zakaria, M. (2021). The impact of financial development on economic indicators: a dynamic panel data analysis. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, DOI: 10.1080/1331677X.2021.1985570
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
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